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ASB vs WTFC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) vs. Wintrust Financial Corporation (WTFC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ASB and WTFC are Midwestern regional banks, but Wintrust is a materially larger franchise with roughly twice the market capitalization and broader geographic reach.
- Each company posted record full-year 2025 profitability, driven by loan growth and steady net interest income (NII), the spread a bank earns between lending and funding costs.
- Associated Banc-Corp's story centers on a profit rebound and an in-progress acquisition, while Wintrust emphasizes consistent organic growth and market-share gains.
- Wintrust holds a higher net interest margin (NIM) near 3.5%, compared with roughly 3.0% for Associated Banc-Corp, reflecting different asset mixes.
- Sentiment and valuation differ: WTFC trades at a richer absolute price with a modest price-to-earnings multiple, while ASB carries a lower share price and a "Hold"-to-"Outperform" analyst mix.
Introduction
Regional banks often serve as a proxy for the health of local economies, making direct comparisons between peers a useful exercise for traders and investors. ASB, Associated Banc-Corp, and WTFC, Wintrust Financial Corporation, operate in overlapping Midwestern markets yet differ in scale, strategy, and momentum. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and market positioning. It may be especially relevant for investors weighing a turnaround-and-expansion narrative against a steadier, larger-growth franchise, and for traders evaluating relative performance within the same sector.
ASB Overview and Recent Performance
Associated Banc-Corp is a Wisconsin-based regional banking company serving individuals and businesses across Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and select additional metros. In recent months, ASB has drawn attention for a sharp earnings turnaround: full-year 2025 net income available to common equity reached a record $463 million, reversing a prior-year loss, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of roughly $2.77. Net interest income grew about 15%, and the net interest margin expanded to 3.03%.
Several catalysts have shaped sentiment. The company has shifted its loan mix toward higher-yielding commercial and industrial (C&I) lending, announced a $100 million share repurchase program, and agreed to acquire American National Corporation in an all-stock deal designed to deepen its presence in Omaha and the Twin Cities. Credit quality improved, with net charge-offs falling sharply and a common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio—a key measure of capital strength—rising to about 10.5%. The share price has advanced over a multi-month window but has also experienced pullbacks, reflecting integration risk and a competitive funding environment.
WTFC Overview and Recent Performance
Wintrust Financial Corporation, headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois, is a diversified financial holding company operating through community banking, specialty finance, and wealth management segments. It is the larger of the two, with total assets of roughly $71 billion. WTFC reported record 2025 net income of about $824 million, up approximately 19% year over year, with diluted EPS of $11.40.
Recent performance has been anchored by consistent organic growth. Loans and deposits each expanded around 10% for the year, and the net interest margin held near 3.5%, helped by disciplined deposit repricing as interest rates shifted. Wintrust has highlighted deposit market-share gains, including a move to the third position in total deposits in Illinois. Management raised the quarterly dividend in early 2026, signaling confidence in the capital base. The stock has traded within a wide 52-week range and sits near its longer-term moving averages, with valuation measures such as price-to-earnings remaining moderate relative to earnings growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale and diversification. Wintrust operates a larger balance sheet and a broader set of specialty lending verticals, while Associated Banc-Corp is a more concentrated, turnaround-oriented franchise. On growth drivers, WTFC leans on steady organic loan and deposit expansion, whereas ASB pairs organic commercial growth with an acquisition that could reshape its footprint.
Risk factors differ accordingly. ASB carries execution and integration risk tied to its pending deal, alongside a lower-yielding mortgage portfolio it is deliberately shrinking. WTFC's risks include a mortgage segment described by management as weaker than desired and competitive pressures in commercial real estate (CRE) lending. On credit quality, both banks report manageable, low charge-offs, though Wintrust's net charge-offs are higher in absolute terms given its larger loan book. Market sentiment toward WTFC reflects steadier earnings momentum, while ASB's narrative is more event-driven and valuation-sensitive.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward WTFC in the current environment. Wintrust has demonstrated more consistent trend characteristics—sustained organic loan and deposit growth, a higher and steadier net interest margin, and recurring record earnings—qualities algorithmic models tend to reward. ASB offers a compelling turnaround and expansion catalyst but introduces event-driven uncertainty around its acquisition. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: if integration progresses smoothly and margins keep improving, ASB's relative positioning could shift. Traders should weigh trend consistency and stability against catalyst-driven upside.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASB is a Buy and WTFC is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for ASB turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ASB saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 55 of the 90 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ASB just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where ASB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
ASB moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +1.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASB advanced for three days, in 174 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 117 of 222 cases where ASB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ASB moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 60 cases where ASB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
ASB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.053) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (10.542) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.340) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.203) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for WTFC turns positive, indicating new upward trend
WTFC saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WTFC just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where WTFC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
WTFC moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for WTFC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +0.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WTFC advanced for three days, in 187 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 156 of 270 cases where WTFC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for WTFC moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 70 cases where WTFC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The 50-day moving average for WTFC moved below the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WTFC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
WTFC broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WTFC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.437) is normal, around the industry mean (1.262). P/E Ratio (11.987) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.527) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
ASB | WTFC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 63 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 20 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 11 | 9 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 47 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 44 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASB's Valuation (43) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (63). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's Profit vs Risk Rating (20) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ASB (30). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to ASB’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's SMR Rating (9) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ASB (11). This means that WTFC’s stock grew similarly to ASB’s over the last 12 months.
ASB's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as WTFC (47). This means that ASB’s stock grew similarly to WTFC’s over the last 12 months.
WTFC's P/E Growth Rating (47) in the Regional Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASB (94). This means that WTFC’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASB’s over the last 12 months.
| ASB | WTFC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 7 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 58% | 16 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 58% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASB’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WTFC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASB’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WTFC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASB’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WTFC’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASB’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WTFC’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASB (@Regional Banks) experienced а -0.77% price change this week, while WTFC (@Regional Banks) price change was -1.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.59%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.51%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASB is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
WTFC is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.59% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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ASB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASB has been closely correlated with ONB. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASB jumps, then ONB could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASB | 100% | +1.75% | ||
| ONB - ASB | 90% Closely correlated | +1.72% | ||
| FULT - ASB | 89% Closely correlated | +1.56% | ||
| FNB - ASB | 89% Closely correlated | +1.84% | ||
| SSB - ASB | 87% Closely correlated | +1.84% | ||
| WTFC - ASB | 86% Closely correlated | +2.41% | ||
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WTFC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WTFC has been closely correlated with ZION. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WTFC jumps, then ZION could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WTFC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTFC | 100% | +2.41% | ||
| ZION - WTFC | 88% Closely correlated | +2.30% | ||
| ONB - WTFC | 87% Closely correlated | +1.72% | ||
| FNB - WTFC | 87% Closely correlated | +1.84% | ||
| HWC - WTFC | 86% Closely correlated | +2.52% | ||
| ASB - WTFC | 86% Closely correlated | +1.75% | ||
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|---|---|---|---|
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| TrueShares ConVex Protect ETF (PVEX) | |||
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