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LRCX vs NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lam Research (LRCX) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LRCX (Lam Research) is a semiconductor equipment maker riding a memory-driven upcycle, with shares up roughly 85% year-to-date and a market value near $340 billion.
- NVDA (NVIDIA) is the dominant supplier of AI accelerators, valued near $5 trillion, but has pulled back into a technical correction after setting a record high in recent weeks.
- The two companies occupy different links in the chip supply chain: Lam Research sells the tools that build chips, while NVIDIA designs the chips that power AI workloads.
- Lam Research trades at a richer forward earnings multiple, while NVIDIA's forward valuation remains below its own long-term average despite faster revenue growth.
- Both stocks face China-related risk, though through different channels: export controls for NVIDIA and softer mature-node spending for Lam Research.
- Wall Street maintains broadly constructive ratings on both, but near-term momentum has diverged, favoring Lam Research's uptrend over NVIDIA's recent pullback.
Introduction
Investors evaluating semiconductor exposure increasingly weigh two very different profiles: a capital-equipment supplier and a leading AI chip designer. Lam Research (LRCX) and NVIDIA (NVDA) are both central to artificial intelligence demand, yet their business models, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ meaningfully. This stock comparison examines relative performance, market positioning, and recent developments to help traders and long-term investors understand how the two names stack up in the current environment. The comparison is especially relevant for those deciding between a direct play on AI compute and an indirect play on the manufacturing capacity behind it.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
Lam Research is a leading supplier of wafer fabrication equipment (WFE), the machinery used to etch and deposit materials onto silicon wafers during chip production. Its revenue is closely tied to spending on memory — specifically DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) and NAND flash storage — as well as leading-edge foundry (contract chip manufacturing) capacity.
Recent market activity has been notably strong. Lam Research delivered record quarterly results, with revenue rising about 30% year over year and non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share climbing roughly 37%. NAND revenue more than doubled sequentially as customers invested in higher-layer devices, while management raised its calendar-year forecast for industry WFE spending to the low-$150 billion range. The company also returned more than $5 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends during its latest fiscal year and raised its quarterly dividend by 27%.
That momentum has lifted sentiment: shares have surged roughly 85% year-to-date, and analysts have issued a series of price-target increases ahead of the company's next earnings report. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the high-20s to low-30s, reflecting elevated expectations for a continued memory and advanced-logic buildout.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA is the world's leading designer of graphics processing units (GPUs) and accelerated-computing systems that underpin the vast majority of AI training and inference workloads. Its platform spans chips, networking, and software, and it has become the largest company globally by market value, at roughly $5 trillion.
Fundamental performance remains exceptional. NVIDIA's latest quarterly revenue more than doubled year over year, and management guided for roughly 70% revenue growth in the coming fiscal year, well above prior consensus expectations. The company also announced a substantial share repurchase program and continues to diversify beyond hyperscale (large-scale cloud) customers into enterprise and industrial AI.
Price behavior, however, has turned choppier in recent weeks. After reaching a record high, shares fell more than 10%, entering a technical correction and slipping below key short-term moving averages. Sentiment has been pressured by U.S. export controls on advanced chips sold to China, rising bond yields, and questions about financing among some AI-infrastructure customers. Even so, NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio remains near the low-20s, well below its five-year average, and sell-side ratings stay overwhelmingly positive.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is their position in the value chain. Lam Research is a "picks and shovels" supplier whose revenue depends on how much capacity fabs (chip factories) decide to build; NVIDIA captures demand more directly through the chips powering AI. That makes Lam Research more cyclical and more levered to memory pricing and fab spending cycles, while NVIDIA's growth is tied to AI infrastructure budgets and its full-stack software ecosystem.
Growth profiles also differ. NVIDIA is compounding revenue at a triple-digit year-over-year pace, while Lam Research is expanding at a strong but more moderate rate. Valuation reflects this: NVIDIA trades at a lower forward P/E multiple, partly because the market has already priced a premium into its enormous scale and potential competitive threats. Lam Research, by contrast, carries a higher multiple relative to its equipment peers.
Risk factors diverge as well. NVIDIA contends with export restrictions, custom-silicon competition from large customers, and financing stress among AI cloud providers. Lam Research faces softer mature-node spending in China, potential component bottlenecks, and the risk that elevated equipment expectations are already embedded in its share price.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative positioning, and near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LRCX in the current window. Lam Research has maintained a steadier uptrend while NVIDIA has pulled back below short-term averages, and Lam Research's earnings momentum and analyst revisions skew positive ahead of its next report. NVIDIA's fundamental growth and lower forward multiple remain compelling longer-term anchors, but its recent correction and China-related headline risk suggest comparatively less favorable short-term trend conditions. This assessment reflects probabilistic analysis of current data rather than a definitive forecast, and market conditions can shift quickly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LRCX is a Hold and NVDA is a Hold.
LRCX in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LRCX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LRCX as a result. In 53 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LRCX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 57 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 65%.
LRCX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LRCX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LRCX advanced for three days, in 269 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LRCX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 274 of 335 cases where LRCX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LRCX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LRCX's P/B Ratio (23.095) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.371). P/E Ratio (39.750) is within average values for comparable stocks, (86.229). LRCX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.463) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.620) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
NVDA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026
NVDA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 32 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVDA moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVDA as a result. In 58 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVDA turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 72%.
The 10-day moving average for NVDA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVDA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.26% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVDA advanced for three days, in 296 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
NVDA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 299 of 336 cases where NVDA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVDA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVDA's P/B Ratio (22.378) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.008). P/E Ratio (26.693) is within average values for comparable stocks, (20.098). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (17.212) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
LRCX | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 77 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 18 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 87 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NVDA's Valuation (81) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as LRCX (86) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LRCX (48) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew somewhat faster than LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as LRCX (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as LRCX (55) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (87) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| LRCX | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 84% | 17 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 7 days ago 69% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 89% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LRCX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NVDA’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- LRCX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LRCX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVDA’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LRCX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -9.10% price change this week, while NVDA (@Semiconductors) price change was +0.30% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -10.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -23.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was -33.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -8.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on Nov 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-10.99% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (-8.11% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
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LRCX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LRCX has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LRCX jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LRCX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 100% | -11.76% | ||
| AMAT - LRCX | 91% Closely correlated | -8.16% | ||
| KLAC - LRCX | 88% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| ASML - LRCX | 85% Closely correlated | -6.93% | ||
| NVMI - LRCX | 84% Closely correlated | -6.37% | ||
| RMBS - LRCX | 80% Closely correlated | -7.62% | ||
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NVDA and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVDA has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVDA jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVDA | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 100% | -4.40% | ||
| LRCX - NVDA | 70% Closely correlated | -11.76% | ||
| KLAC - NVDA | 69% Closely correlated | -9.55% | ||
| AMAT - NVDA | 66% Closely correlated | -8.16% | ||
| AMKR - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | -10.70% | ||
| CAMT - NVDA | 63% Loosely correlated | -10.23% | ||
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