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LRCX vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) vs. Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LRCX and ONTO both operate in the semiconductor equipment sector with exposure to AI-driven demand, yet LRCX maintains a significantly larger market capitalization and broader revenue base.
- Recent market activity shows both stocks experiencing pullbacks after strong year-to-date gains, with LRCX down approximately 10% over the past month and ONTO declining around 17% in the same period.
- LRCX recently announced a 27% dividend increase and plans to invest over $3 billion in its global R&D lab network to support AI-era semiconductor research.
- ONTO delivered a strong second-quarter earnings beat with 35% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by advanced packaging and inspection solutions tied to AI compute.
- LRCX offers greater scale and cash generation, while ONTO provides higher relative growth potential in specialized process control and metrology.
- Sector sentiment remains supported by ongoing AI infrastructure investments, though both names face typical cyclical risks in semiconductor capital spending.
Introduction
This comparison examines LRCX and ONTO, two semiconductor equipment companies positioned within the broader technology supply chain. Both benefit from artificial intelligence-related capital expenditures but differ in scale, product focus, and market positioning. The analysis appeals to investors and traders seeking to evaluate relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles in the current market environment characterized by AI momentum and periodic sector rotations.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
Lam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, and services equipment used in semiconductor fabrication, with a strong emphasis on etch and deposition technologies critical for advanced chip production. In recent weeks, the stock has traded lower amid broader market adjustments following robust prior gains, reflecting typical volatility in the semiconductor equipment group. Key developments include a 27% quarterly dividend increase and the return of over $5 billion to shareholders through repurchases and dividends in fiscal 2026. The company also announced plans to invest more than $3 billion over five years to expand its global R&D lab network, aimed at accelerating innovation for the AI era. These initiatives have supported sentiment by highlighting long-term commitment to growth areas such as advanced packaging and memory.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation Inc. provides process control, metrology, and inspection solutions for semiconductor manufacturing, including tools for advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory applications. Recent market activity has seen the shares decline following strong year-to-date appreciation, consistent with sector-wide adjustments. The company reported second-quarter results that exceeded expectations, with revenue rising 35% year over year and earnings per share beating consensus, fueled by demand in AI-related advanced packaging. A record backlog exceeding $1.1 billion and raised full-year growth outlook for advanced packaging have contributed to positive sentiment, underscoring the firm’s positioning in high-growth niches within the semiconductor ecosystem.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
LRCX operates at a much larger scale, with market capitalization exceeding $370 billion compared to ONTO’s approximately $14 billion, translating to greater revenue generation and cash reserves. Growth drivers for LRCX center on core wafer fabrication equipment with broad exposure across logic and memory, while ONTO focuses on specialized inspection and metrology tools benefiting from advanced packaging and AI compute demands. Recent momentum has favored both through AI tailwinds, though ONTO has shown sharper percentage gains and volatility. Risk factors include cyclical capital spending for both, with LRCX offering more stability via dividends and scale, whereas ONTO carries higher valuation multiples reflective of its growth profile. Sector exposure overlaps in semiconductors, yet market sentiment positions LRCX as a bellwether and ONTO as a higher-beta play on specific AI subsegments.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, balance sheet strength, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a modestly higher probabilistic preference to LRCX. Its larger scale, dividend support, and diversified exposure provide relative stability amid sector fluctuations, while ongoing R&D investments align with sustained AI demand. ONTO presents compelling growth attributes but exhibits greater recent price sensitivity. This assessment reflects data-driven positioning rather than certainty and should not be interpreted as investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LRCX is a Buy and ONTO is a Buy.
LRCX | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 18 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONTO's Valuation (76) in the null industry is in the same range as LRCX (84) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (36) in the null industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's SMR Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (39) in the null industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the null industry is in the same range as LRCX (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
| LRCX | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 83% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 84% | 6 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 67% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LRCX’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LRCX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LRCX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LRCX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +9.52% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +9.19% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +5.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +28.33%.
Reported Earning Dates
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+5.21% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | +2.83% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | +2.27% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | +2.62% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | +0.43% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 80% Closely correlated | +2.19% | ||
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