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LRCX vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lam Research (LRCX) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- LRCX is a large-cap leader in etch and deposition equipment, while ONTO is a smaller, faster-growing process-control specialist focused on inspection and metrology.
- Both companies are riding the same artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor build-out, but their exposures, growth profiles, and valuations differ materially.
- Lam Research has delivered record results and raised its wafer fab equipment (WFE) outlook, yet its shares recently endured a historic multi-session losing streak on AI-spending concerns.
- Onto Innovation has posted accelerating revenue growth, a record backlog above $1.1 billion, and a sharply higher advanced-packaging forecast.
- Relative performance and risk-reward positioning are shaped by scale, cyclicality, and each company's concentration in advanced packaging and memory.
Introduction
Semiconductor equipment makers sit at the center of the ongoing AI infrastructure build-out, making them a focal point for both growth and momentum investors. This stock comparison examines two companies at different points on that spectrum: LRCX, a scaled leader in the deposition and etch tools used to fabricate chips, and ONTO, a process-control specialist that supplies inspection, metrology, and lithography for advanced packaging. Comparing them helps traders and investors weigh established scale and cash generation against faster growth and higher valuation multiples, and it clarifies how relative performance diverges even within the same AI-driven demand cycle.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
Lam Research Corporation designs and services wafer fabrication equipment, with particular strength in etch and deposition steps that grow more intensive as chips become smaller and more complex. Its business is closely tied to memory (DRAM and NAND) and leading-edge foundry logic, along with a rapidly expanding advanced-packaging segment.
Recent market activity has been volatile. Lam Research reported record results for its most recent quarter, with revenue rising roughly 30% year over year and non-GAAP (a profitability measure excluding one-time items) earnings per share (EPS) climbing about 37%. Management raised its calendar-year outlook for WFE spending to the low-$150 billion range and signaled continued strength in AI-related demand. At the same time, the stock recently suffered its longest consecutive daily decline streak on record, pressured by broader worries about the sustainability of AI capital spending, competitive headlines out of China's memory sector, and hotter-than-expected inflation data. Despite that pullback, LRCX remains sharply higher on a year-to-date basis, and its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits well above the semiconductor industry average.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation provides process-control systems spanning inspection, metrology, and advanced-packaging lithography. Its tools help chipmakers detect defects, measure critical dimensions, and improve yields across leading-edge logic, memory, and heterogeneous packaging applications. The company is meaningfully smaller than Lam Research, which makes its growth rates and order flow comparatively more volatile.
Recent performance has been strong. Onto Innovation posted record quarterly revenue of roughly $343 million, up about 35% year over year, with gross margin near 57% and operating margin reaching approximately 30%. The company's backlog exceeded $1.1 billion for the first time, and management raised its second-half growth expectation while lifting its full-year advanced-packaging outlook to roughly 80%. Demand for its Dragonfly G5 inspection platform and Atlas G6 metrology system has broadened across memory, logic, and outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) providers. Over the trailing year, ONTO shares have been among the strongest performers in the semiconductor equipment group, though that strength has left the stock trading at an elevated valuation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is one of scale versus growth. LRCX is a diversified equipment franchise with a large installed base, a substantial customer-support revenue stream, and aggressive shareholder returns, making it a relatively broad play on the memory and foundry upcycle. ONTO is more concentrated in process control and advanced packaging, which gives it sharper leverage to AI-driven packaging growth but also narrower end-market diversification.
Momentum and sentiment have recently diverged. Lam Research has been buffeted by macro-driven concerns over AI spending sustainability, contributing to a pronounced short-term drawdown even as fundamentals remain strong. Onto Innovation, by contrast, has maintained accelerating growth and rising order visibility, supporting a comparatively smoother upward trend. Risk profiles also differ: Lam Research carries meaningful exposure to memory-cycle swings and US-China trade frictions, while Onto Innovation's smaller size and packaging concentration make it sensitive to customer order timing and competitive shifts. Valuation reflects these trade-offs, with both stocks trading at premium multiples relative to the broader semiconductor sector.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative stability, catalyst density, and positioning within the AI supply chain, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward ONTO in the current environment. Onto Innovation's accelerating revenue growth, record backlog, and upward-revised advanced-packaging outlook point to more consistent near-term momentum, while Lam Research's fundamentals remain strong but have been clouded by a sharper, sentiment-driven pullback. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive claim: LRCX offers greater scale, deeper liquidity, and more diversified cash flow, which may appeal under a different market regime. The outcome ultimately depends on how AI-spending sentiment, memory dynamics, and packaging demand evolve in the weeks ahead.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LRCX is a StrongBuy and ONTO is a Hold.
LRCX's RSI Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LRCX advanced for three days, in 272 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LRCX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LRCX as a result. In 53 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LRCX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 57 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
LRCX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LRCX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LRCX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for LRCX entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LRCX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LRCX's P/B Ratio (20.114) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (34.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). LRCX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.463) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.620) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
ONTO in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ONTO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 16 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONTO as a result. In 74 of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ONTO turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 74%.
ONTO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONTO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONTO entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ONTO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +9.90% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONTO advanced for three days, in 268 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
ONTO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONTO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ONTO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.423) is normal, around the industry mean (5.670). P/E Ratio (64.899) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.817) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.787) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
LRCX | ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 64 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 57 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 18 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONTO's Valuation (78) in the null industry is in the same range as LRCX (84) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's Profit vs Risk Rating (57) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (68) in the null industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's SMR Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONTO (80) in the null industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's Price Growth Rating (65) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ONTO (65) in the null industry. This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ONTO’s over the last 12 months.
ONTO's P/E Growth Rating (5) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LRCX (51) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ONTO’s stock grew somewhat faster than LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
| LRCX | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 84% | 12 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 76% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 71% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LRCX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ONTO’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LRCX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LRCX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LRCX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -16.17% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -14.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -9.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -31.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -40.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-9.39% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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LRCX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LRCX has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 92% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LRCX jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LRCX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 100% | +8.23% | ||
| AMAT - LRCX | 92% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| KLAC - LRCX | 88% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| ASML - LRCX | 85% Closely correlated | +5.02% | ||
| NVMI - LRCX | 84% Closely correlated | +11.73% | ||
| TER - LRCX | 81% Closely correlated | +2.57% | ||
More | ||||
ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | +11.08% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 86% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 85% Closely correlated | +8.23% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 83% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| ENTG - ONTO | 82% Closely correlated | +2.59% | ||
| UCTT - ONTO | 81% Closely correlated | +10.56% | ||
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PBJN | 30.89 | 0.04 | +0.12% |
| PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - June (PBJN) | |||
| XBIL | 50.05 | N/A | N/A |
| US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF (XBIL) | |||
| SDCP | 25.19 | N/A | N/A |
| Virtus Newfleet Short Duration Core Plus Bond ETF (SDCP) | |||
| HYG | 77.23 | -0.05 | -0.06% |
| iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) | |||
| HIDV | 87.93 | -0.38 | -0.43% |
| AB US High Dividend ETF (HIDV) | |||