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ASML vs LRCX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Lam Research (LRCX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ASML and LRCX are leading semiconductor-equipment suppliers riding AI-driven demand, but they serve different stages of chipmaking.
- ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography, while LRCX leads in etch and deposition tools.
- Both posted record quarterly results in recent weeks, yet each stock pulled back amid broad investor caution around AI-related valuations.
- ASML raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to €44–45 billion; LRCX projects industry wafer-fabrication equipment spending above $200 billion in 2027.
- China exposure is a shared risk: roughly 20% of ASML sales and about 35% of LRCX recent revenue are tied to the region.
- For more detail, explore ASML Major News and ASML Today's Price Move, along with LRCX Major News and LRCX Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Semiconductor-equipment makers sit at the center of the artificial-intelligence investment cycle, making them a natural focus for traders and investors tracking the technology supply chain. ASML (ASML Holding N.V.) and LRCX (Lam Research Corporation) are two of the most prominent names in this group, yet their business models and market positioning differ considerably. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing exposure to advanced chipmaking, as well as for those evaluating relative performance and sentiment within the semiconductor-equipment sector. Both companies recently reported record quarterly results, but their shares have reacted differently to a cooling risk appetite around AI names.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML is the Dutch supplier of lithography systems used to print circuit patterns on silicon wafers, and it is the only commercial provider of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography tools required for leading-edge chips. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted record total net sales of about €11.7 billion, up roughly 55% year over year, and net income of approximately €5 billion. Management raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to €44–45 billion and said customer demand is expected to outpace planned supply through at least 2028, with some clients already discussing orders into 2029 and 2030.
Despite the strong figures, the shares eased in after-hours and overnight trading following the release, reflecting broader nervousness around AI-linked valuations rather than any operational shortfall. Sentiment has been shaped by export-control uncertainty and the complexity of scaling High-NA EUV manufacturing capacity, both of which are widely watched execution risks.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
LRCX (Lam Research) is a leading supplier of etch and deposition equipment used to build semiconductor devices, with particular strength in memory and advanced packaging. In its most recent quarter, the company reported revenue of about $8.22 billion, up roughly 54% year over year, with non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share of $2.20 and a record operating margin of about 40%. Management guided next-quarter revenue to roughly $8.6 billion.
Notably, Lam raised its estimate for industry-wide wafer fabrication equipment, or WFE, spending to the mid-$150 billion range for 2026 and offered a preliminary 2027 view above $200 billion, led by DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) and leading-edge foundry demand. Even so, shares fell sharply in the following session, as in-line guidance and supply-chain constraints such as component shortages and limited clean-room space disappointed elevated expectations.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a catalog of hundreds of AI trading bots that monitor thousands of different tickers, each operating with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of covered symbols. Because market conditions shift constantly, only the bots best suited to the current environment are surfaced in the curated Trending AI Robots section. This selection is designed to help traders identify strategies with favorable recent consistency and stability rather than manually screening the full library. Whether you are comparing semiconductor names or evaluating a broader watchlist, exploring the Trending AI Robots page can offer a data-driven starting point for your own research.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge on several key dimensions. ASML benefits from a near-monopoly in EUV lithography, which gives it exceptional pricing power and multi-year order visibility, but it carries high concentration risk in a single, extremely complex product category and greater exposure to export-control policy. LRCX competes in a more fragmented market for etch and deposition tools, offering higher cyclical sensitivity to memory spending, particularly NAND (flash memory) and DRAM, along with rising demand from advanced packaging.
On growth drivers, both are leveraged to AI infrastructure, but LRCX is more directly tied to memory upcycles and China demand, which accounted for about 35% of recent revenue, versus roughly 20% for ASML. On momentum, both delivered record results, yet sentiment softened around both names in recent weeks as investors reassessed AI-related valuations and supply-chain execution risks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely express a modest preference for ASML in the current environment. Its near-monopoly in EUV lithography, stronger multi-year order visibility, and capacity-driven pricing power suggest more durable earnings stability, even as both stocks face similar sector-wide sentiment pressures. That said, LRCX presents a more cyclical, higher-beta profile tied to the memory upcycle, which may appeal to different risk preferences. Any verdict remains probabilistic and conditional on ongoing AI capital spending, export-control developments, and supply-chain execution.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and LRCX is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for ASML turns negative, indicating new downward trend
ASML saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 30, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 89 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 70 of the 89 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for ASML entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ASML's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 227 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (25.074) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (56.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
LRCX's RSI Oscillator is remaining in oversold zone for 2 days
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LRCX advanced for three days, in 272 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LRCX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LRCX as a result. In 53 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LRCX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 57 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 68%.
LRCX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LRCX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LRCX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for LRCX entered a downward trend on November 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LRCX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LRCX's P/B Ratio (20.114) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.670). P/E Ratio (34.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (68.795). LRCX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.463) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.620) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
ASML | LRCX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 9 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LRCX's Valuation (84) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (88). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (57). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's SMR Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (20). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (65). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LRCX (51). This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | LRCX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 89% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 72% | 11 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 70% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while LRCX’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- LRCX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LRCX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- LRCX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -9.01% price change this week, while LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -16.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -9.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -31.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was -40.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-9.39% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +5.02% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 86% Closely correlated | +8.23% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 83% Closely correlated | +4.22% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 81% Closely correlated | +6.69% | ||
| NVMI - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +11.73% | ||
| ONTO - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +11.08% | ||
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