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ASML vs LRCX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Lam Research (LRCX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ASML and LRCX are semiconductor equipment leaders riding the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, but they occupy different niches in the chipmaking supply chain.
- ASML holds a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the most advanced chip-printing technology, while LRCX leads in etch and deposition tools used across memory and logic production.
- ASML recently reported record quarterly sales and raised its full-year outlook, citing demand visibility extending toward 2029 and 2030.
- LRCX delivered record revenue and aggressive shareholder returns, though its shares have pulled back meaningfully from their 2026 peak.
- China exposure, valuation, and cyclicality represent the key differentiating risk factors between the two names.
Introduction
Semiconductor equipment makers sit at the center of the AI investment cycle, converting soaring demand for advanced chips into durable order books. This stock comparison examines two of the sector's most prominent franchises: ASML Holding, the Dutch specialist in lithography systems, and LRCX, Lam Research, a leader in etch and deposition equipment. Although both benefit from the same macro tailwind, their business models, growth drivers, and risk profiles differ materially. Traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning—and long-term investors assessing which franchise better captures AI-driven capital expenditure—may find the contrast instructive as the two companies report and guide into a historically strong demand environment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding is the world's only manufacturer of EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machines, the equipment required to produce the most advanced logic and memory chips. This structural advantage makes the company a critical chokepoint in the semiconductor supply chain. In recent weeks, ASML reported record third-quarter net sales of €11.66 billion alongside net income of €4.96 billion and a gross margin of 57.5%, reflecting strong execution and favorable product mix. Management raised its full-year 2026 sales outlook to €44 billion–€45 billion and guided fourth-quarter revenue of €14.2 billion–€15.2 billion.
Sentiment around ASML has been shaped by remarkably strong demand visibility: the company indicated that planned supply for 2027 and 2028 may not fully meet customer demand, with some clients expressing interest in orders for 2029 and 2030. Installed-base and productivity-upgrade revenue also ran ahead of guidance. Despite these positives, shares slipped modestly after the report, a sign that a premium valuation and elevated expectations had already been priced in. Over the past year, the stock has still climbed roughly 75%.
LRCX Overview and Recent Performance
LRCX, Lam Research, designs and services semiconductor processing equipment used in etch and deposition—the steps that carve circuit patterns into wafers and add thin material layers. The company is a core supplier to both memory makers and leading-edge foundries. In its most recent fiscal quarter, LRCX posted record revenue of $6.72 billion, up 30% year over year, with non-GAAP operating margin expanding to 38.4% and non-GAAP earnings of $1.82 per share. Customer-support revenue, a recurring and higher-margin stream, also reached a record.
LRCX has returned more than $5.1 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026 through buybacks and dividends, and it raised its quarterly dividend by 27% in August. The shares surged roughly 85% year to date before pulling back about 35% from their 52-week high, as a hotter inflation print, tariff concerns, and worries about Chinese equipment competition weighed on sentiment across the chip sector. The company is scheduled to report its next results shortly, with guidance pointing to continued revenue growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is strategic. ASML operates as a near-monopolist in a single, extraordinarily high-value category—EUV lithography—giving it pricing power and unmatched demand visibility but also concentrating its fortunes in a handful of large customers and in a premium valuation. LRCX is more diversified, selling etch and deposition tools across DRAM (dynamic random-access memory), NAND flash, and logic, which broadens its revenue base but leaves it more exposed to the memory cycle.
Geographic exposure also differs. China accounts for roughly 20% of ASML revenue but about 34% of LRCX revenue, making Lam more sensitive to export controls, tariffs, and rising Chinese competition. On momentum, ASML has shown more consistent, trend-following strength, while LRCX delivered sharper gains but also a steeper drawdown. Both carry rich earnings multiples, so relative positioning hinges on growth durability versus valuation risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ASML at present. Its trend has been more consistent, its earnings quality is reinforced by near-monopoly pricing power, and its catalysts are unusually durable—demand visibility extending toward 2030 and a guidance raise that points to continued growth. LRCX offers a stronger momentum-rebound setup and more aggressive capital returns, but its heavier China exposure and recent volatility introduce greater instability. In probabilistic terms, ASML presents a more stable, trend-consistent profile, while LRCX may appeal to traders seeking higher beta within the same AI-equipment theme.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASML is a Hold and LRCX is a Hold.
ASML in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026
ASML may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 37 cases where ASML's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ASML crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +5.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ASML advanced for three days, in 226 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 242 cases where ASML Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ASML as a result. In 67 of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ASML turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
ASML moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ASML declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ASML’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ASML's P/B Ratio (28.889) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.849). P/E Ratio (64.525) is within average values for comparable stocks, (85.952). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.086) is also within normal values, averaging (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (15.175) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
LRCX's RSI Oscillator stays in oversold zone for 1 day
It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +5.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LRCX advanced for three days, in 269 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
LRCX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 276 of 339 cases where LRCX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LRCX as a result. In 51 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LRCX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 58 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 33 of the 58 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
LRCX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for LRCX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LRCX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LRCX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LRCX's P/B Ratio (26.486) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.849). P/E Ratio (45.585) is within average values for comparable stocks, (85.952). LRCX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.463) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.801). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.008) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.620) is also within normal values, averaging (27.897).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ASML | LRCX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 39 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 18 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 44 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 6 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LRCX's Valuation (88) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (90). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (39). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
LRCX's SMR Rating (18) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ASML (20). This means that LRCX’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (44). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as LRCX (15). This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to LRCX’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | LRCX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 72% | 17 days ago 84% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while LRCX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- LRCX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LRCX’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LRCX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -7.80% price change this week, while LRCX (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -17.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -18.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -9.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.46%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
LRCX is expected to report earnings on Oct 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (-18.80% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
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LRCX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LRCX has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LRCX jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To LRCX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 100% | -4.87% | ||
| AMAT - LRCX | 91% Closely correlated | -4.82% | ||
| KLAC - LRCX | 87% Closely correlated | -5.00% | ||
| ASML - LRCX | 85% Closely correlated | -0.96% | ||
| NVMI - LRCX | 85% Closely correlated | -2.50% | ||
| ONTO - LRCX | 83% Closely correlated | -4.85% | ||
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