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MARA vs RIOT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MARA Holdings (MARA) vs. Riot Platforms (RIOT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both MARA and RIOT are Bitcoin (BTC) miners repositioning themselves as power-rich digital infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) computing providers.
- RIOT has locked in large, multi-year contracted leases — including a reported ~$9.1 billion, 20-year agreement with AI lab Anthropic — giving it more visible, recurring revenue than MARA currently shows.
- MARA carries a larger Bitcoin treasury and has leaned on a Starwood Capital joint venture and the Long Ridge Energy acquisition, which are still in execution phase.
- Both companies swung to net losses in recent quarters, driven largely by non-cash, mark-to-market writedowns on their Bitcoin holdings.
- Relative momentum has favored RIOT, whose market capitalization and year-to-date performance have outpaced MARA in recent months.
Introduction
MARA Holdings and Riot Platforms are two of the most closely watched names in the public Bitcoin mining sector, and they are increasingly evaluated on more than their hashrate. Both companies are converting low-cost, contracted power assets into AI and high-performance computing (HPC) data center capacity, making them hybrid plays on both cryptocurrency markets and enterprise compute demand. This stock comparison is relevant to traders seeking leveraged Bitcoin exposure and to investors weighing which company has the stronger market positioning in the transition toward contracted, recurring infrastructure revenue. Understanding their relative performance, balance sheets, and catalyst pipelines helps clarify the trade-offs between the two.
MARA Overview and Recent Performance
MARA, formerly Marathon Digital Holdings, describes itself as an energy and digital infrastructure company. Bitcoin mining remains its "operational foundation," but management has accelerated a pivot toward AI and critical IT infrastructure, anchored by a Starwood Capital joint venture and a roughly $1.5 billion agreement to acquire the Long Ridge Energy gas-fired power plant in Ohio. In recent quarters, MARA expanded its energized hashrate to roughly 72.2 exahash per second (EH/s), a measure of mining computing power, and produced over 2,200 BTC in its latest reported quarter.
Recent market activity has been volatile. Quarterly revenue declined year over year, and the company posted a substantial net loss driven primarily by unrealized losses on its roughly 38,689 BTC treasury as Bitcoin prices retreated. MARA sold more than $1 billion of Bitcoin to retire a portion of its convertible debt, improving its balance sheet but reducing its Bitcoin exposure. Its shares trade near the lower end of their 52-week range, reflecting investor concern about cash burn and the still-unproven economics of its infrastructure buildout.
RIOT Overview and Recent Performance
RIOT, Riot Platforms, operates large-scale mining campuses in Texas and has moved aggressively to monetize its power assets. The defining catalyst of recent months was a reported 20-year, 191-megawatt (MW) data center lease with AI lab Anthropic, widely valued at approximately $9.1 billion in initial contract revenue, alongside an expanding hosting agreement with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Together these agreements represent a meaningful step toward contracted, recurring revenue at the company's Rockdale campus.
RIOT's recent financial results show a similar pattern to MARA's: revenue rose modestly year over year, but the company swung to a net loss because of non-cash Bitcoin writedowns and data center-related charges. Investors, however, have focused on the visibility of its lease backlog and its roughly 1.7 gigawatts of combined power capacity across Rockdale and Corsicana. RIOT's market capitalization and share-price momentum have strengthened relative to MARA in recent months, though its shares also remain well below their 52-week high.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is the maturity of their AI infrastructure revenue. RIOT has converted contracted power into signed, multi-decade leases with investment-grade-style tenants, creating a visible recurring-revenue runway that is largely independent of Bitcoin prices. MARA, by comparison, is earlier in that transition: its Starwood partnership and Long Ridge acquisition are substantial, but much of the anticipated AI capacity is not yet generating contracted cash flow.
The trade-off runs in the other direction on Bitcoin exposure. MARA holds a significantly larger BTC treasury, giving it greater upside leverage to a Bitcoin rally but also larger mark-to-market swings on the way down. RIOT holds a smaller reserve and has funded its pivot partly through Bitcoin sales, reducing that volatility but also capping direct crypto exposure. Risk profiles differ as well: MARA's capital-intensive acquisitions have added leverage and integration risk, while RIOT faces multi-year capital expenditure (capex) requirements to complete its data center buildout. On sector exposure, both remain high-beta, Bitcoin-correlated equities, though RIOT's contracted lease revenue has begun to dampen that correlation at the margin.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor RIOT at present. The combination of stronger relative momentum, a larger market capitalization, and a signed multi-billion-dollar contracted lease backlog gives RIOT a more consistent, catalyst-rich growth narrative than MARA currently demonstrates. MARA's larger Bitcoin treasury and infrastructure portfolio offer substantial optionality, but its pivot remains more dependent on execution and future lease signings. In probabilistic terms, the AI's preference reflects RIOT's steadier trend consistency and clearer revenue visibility, while acknowledging that a sharp Bitcoin rally could narrow or reverse the gap. This assessment is based on market positioning and momentum, not a forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MARA is a Hold and RIOT is a Hold.
MARA in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
MARA moved below its 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 36 of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MARA as a result. In 75 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MARA turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
The 10-day moving average for MARA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
The 50-day moving average for MARA moved below the 200-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MARA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.95% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MARA advanced for three days, in 237 of 269 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
MARA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 164 of 192 cases where MARA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 85%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. MARA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.817) is normal, around the industry mean (4.320). P/E Ratio (3.677) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.932). MARA's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.140) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.097) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MARA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
RIOT in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
RIOT moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 31 of 35 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RIOT as a result. In 71 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RIOT turned negative on September 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 43 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
The 10-day moving average for RIOT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RIOT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +4.97% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RIOT advanced for three days, in 244 of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 89%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 210 cases where RIOT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RIOT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.700) is normal, around the industry mean (4.320). P/E Ratio (27.240) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.932). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.800) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.504) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RIOT’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.
MARA | RIOT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 98 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 82 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 94 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RIOT's Valuation (94) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as MARA (96) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that RIOT’s stock grew similarly to MARA’s over the last 12 months.
RIOT's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as MARA (100) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that RIOT’s stock grew similarly to MARA’s over the last 12 months.
RIOT's SMR Rating (98) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as MARA (99) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that RIOT’s stock grew similarly to MARA’s over the last 12 months.
RIOT's Price Growth Rating (82) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as MARA (87) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that RIOT’s stock grew similarly to MARA’s over the last 12 months.
RIOT's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Financial Conglomerates industry is significantly better than the same rating for MARA (94) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that RIOT’s stock grew significantly faster than MARA’s over the last 12 months.
| MARA | RIOT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 87% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 88% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 87% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 88% | 25 days ago 89% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 89% | 9 days ago 87% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 90% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MARA’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while RIOT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MARA’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RIOT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MARA’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIOT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MARA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- RIOT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
MARA (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а -15.94% price change this week, while RIOT (@Investment Banks/Brokers) price change was -7.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -7.80%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.40%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.76%.
Reported Earning Dates
MARA is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
RIOT is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-7.80% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
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