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MDU vs MLI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? MDU Resources Group (MDU) vs. Mueller Industries (MLI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two very different profiles: MDU Resources is a low-beta regulated utility and pipeline operator, while Mueller Industries is a cyclical, debt-free industrial manufacturer of copper and brass products.
- Divergent momentum: Mueller has delivered strong 2026 revenue and earnings growth, while MDU has traded near the lower end of its 52-week range in recent months.
- Yield vs. growth: MDU offers a roughly 3% dividend yield with 6–8% long-term earnings growth guidance; MLI carries a smaller yield but far faster recent earnings expansion.
- Balance-sheet contrast: MLI held no debt and about $1.38 billion in cash recently, whereas MDU carries roughly $2.58 billion in long-term debt to fund regulated infrastructure.
- Key catalysts: MDU's outlook hinges on pipeline projects and data-center load; MLI's is tied to copper prices, construction demand, and margin execution.
Introduction
Investors comparing MDU and MLI are effectively weighing two contrasting market narratives. MDU Resources Group is a regulated energy utility and natural-gas pipeline operator prized for stability and income, while Mueller Industries is a cyclical industrial fabricator of copper, brass, and aluminum products whose fortunes track commodity prices and construction activity. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors seeking to understand relative performance, market positioning, and risk across a defensive utility and a growth-oriented industrial. Because the two names respond to different drivers, the comparison also illustrates how sector exposure shapes momentum and sentiment in the current market environment.
MDU Overview and Recent Performance
MDU (MDU Resources Group, Inc.), a member of the S&P SmallCap 600 index, delivers electric utility and natural-gas distribution services to more than 1.2 million customers across the Pacific Northwest and Midwest, alongside a pipeline network exceeding 3,800 miles. In recent market activity, shares have traded near the lower end of their 52-week range, with a market capitalization around $3.98 billion and a dividend yield near 3%.
Recent quarters reflected mixed operational results. First-quarter 2026 earnings of $0.39 per share (EPS) came in modestly below year-ago results, partly because mild winter weather reduced utility volumes. Management nonetheless affirmed full-year 2026 EPS guidance of $0.93 to $1.00 and reiterated a long-term EPS growth target of 6–8%. Sentiment has been shaped by progress on the proposed Bakken East Pipeline, an estimated $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion project that has attracted roughly 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of customer interest, and by growing data-center electricity demand in its service territory. The equity raises used to fund growth and rate-case outcomes remain key watch items for investors.
MLI Overview and Recent Performance
MLI (Mueller Industries, Inc.) is a global industrial manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products serving air, water, oil and gas distribution, climate comfort, electrical transmission, and construction markets through its Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate segments. The company has generated record results through 2026, aided by sharply higher copper prices, effective raw-material and price management, and demand from data-center and commercial construction activity.
First-quarter 2026 net sales rose to $1.19 billion and net income to $239 million, the strongest first quarter in company history. The company completed a two-for-one stock split and the acquisition of Bison Metals Technologies, and it raised its dividend by 40%, its sixth consecutive double-digit increase. In recent weeks, however, shares pulled back from their 52-week high after third-quarter results showed revenue growth of more than 30% but earnings-per-share that landed below consensus, as surging copper costs compressed operating margins. The stock's relative performance has thus been strong year to date, though near-term sentiment has cooled around margin conversion and valuation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between MDU and MLI is business model and cyclicality. MDU earns predictable, regulated returns from utilities and contracted pipeline capacity, supported by a low beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market) near 0.6 and a near-3% dividend yield. Its growth depends on regulatory rate recovery, capital investment, and long-dated infrastructure projects. MLI, by contrast, is a higher-beta (about 1.05) industrial whose results swing with copper prices and construction demand; it carries no debt and a strong cash position, but its earnings are more sensitive to input-cost and margin dynamics.
Momentum has favored MLI over the trailing year, with shares up substantially, though a recent earnings-related pullback trimmed that outperformance. MDU has lagged over the past several months and now trades with a roughly 20 times price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. Risk profiles also differ: MDU faces regulatory and financing risk around large pipeline commitments, while MLI faces commodity-price volatility, tariff effects, and reliance on a still-soft residential construction market. Sector exposure reinforces the trade-off — utilities provide defensive income, while industrial metals offer cyclical upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor MLI on trend consistency and earnings momentum, given its record sales growth, debt-free balance sheet, and data-center and commercial demand drivers, even as recent margin compression introduces near-term caution. By contrast, MDU presents a more defensive profile with stable income and long-dated pipeline optionality, but currently weaker relative momentum and a recent pullback toward its 52-week low. The assessment is probabilistic: the AI's preference would depend on whether current conditions reward cyclical growth and balance-sheet strength or defensive stability and yield. Neither outcome represents a definitive claim, and positioning could shift as catalysts such as MLI's margin trajectory or MDU's project milestones evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is MDU is a Buy and MLI is a StrongBuy.
MDU in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026
MDU moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 33 of 44 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 64 cases where MDU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The 10-day moving average for MDU crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 6 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
Following a +3.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MDU advanced for three days, in 195 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
MDU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 256 cases where MDU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MDU moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MDU as a result. In 45 of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MDU turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MDU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.339) is normal, around the industry mean (1.428). P/E Ratio (19.611) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.615). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.360) is also within normal values, averaging (1.861). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.114) is also within normal values, averaging (2.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MDU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MLI sees its Stochastic Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
On November 10, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for MLI moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 36 of the 47 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MLI's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MLI as a result. In 60 of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MLI just turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where MLI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +3.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MLI advanced for three days, in 241 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
MLI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for MLI moved below the 200-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MLI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for MLI entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.302) is normal, around the industry mean (2.913). P/E Ratio (13.597) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.265). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (0.744). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.880) is also within normal values, averaging (6248.204).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MLI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
MDU | MLI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 49 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 79 | 36 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 65 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MLI's Valuation (49) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MDU (56) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to MDU’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MDU (12) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to MDU’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's SMR Rating (36) in the Metal Fabrication industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MDU (79) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew somewhat faster than MDU’s over the last 12 months.
MDU's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Gas Distributors industry is in the same range as MLI (62) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MDU’s stock grew similarly to MLI’s over the last 12 months.
MLI's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MDU (95) in the Gas Distributors industry. This means that MLI’s stock grew similarly to MDU’s over the last 12 months.
| MDU | MLI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 29 days ago 46% | 7 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 43% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
MDU’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MLI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- MDU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MLI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
MDU’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MLI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- MDU’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MLI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
MDU (@Gas Distributors) experienced а -1.88% price change this week, while MLI (@Metal Fabrication) price change was -0.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Gas Distributors industry was +0.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.45%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was -0.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
MDU is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
MLI is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Gas Distributors (+0.32% weekly)Gas distributors are involved in moving and selling gas – from wellheads or over-distribution systems operated by other firms – to residential and non-residential customers. These companies perform tasks such as the gathering and processing of gas, intrastate and interstate transport, and delivery to the customer. Some of the biggest gas distributing companies in the U.S. include Sempra Energy, Avangrid Inc and Atmos Energy Corporation.
@Metal Fabrication (-0.61% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
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MDU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDU has been loosely correlated with BKH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDU jumps, then BKH could also see price increases.
MLI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MLI has been loosely correlated with MTUS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MLI jumps, then MTUS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MLI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLI | 100% | +0.38% | ||
| MTUS - MLI | 51% Loosely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| CODI - MLI | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| MDU - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| NWPX - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | -1.64% | ||
| NUE - MLI | 44% Loosely correlated | +2.90% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| PQJA | 31.71 | N/A | N/A |
| PGIM NASDAQ-100 BUFFER 12 ETF - JANUARY | |||
| DSTL | 70.78 | -0.07 | -0.10% |
| Distillate US Fundamental Stability & Value ETF (DSTL) | |||
| BKCG | 38.76 | -0.13 | -0.34% |
| BNY Mellon Concentrated Growth ETF (BKCG) | |||
| EVN | 10.05 | -0.09 | -0.89% |
| Eaton Vance Municipal Income Trust | |||
| SOUX | 3.14 | -0.31 | -9.03% |
| Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SOUN ETF (SOUX) | |||