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NIO vs RIVN
NIO Inc. (NIO) vs Rivian Automotive (RIVN) Earnings Recap: NIO Posts First Quarterly Profit on Record Deliveries
Key Takeaways
- NIO achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2025 with RMB807.3 million operating profit and RMB34.7 billion revenue, up 75.9% YoY, driven by 124,807 vehicle deliveries.
- Rivian reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.29 billion, beating estimates, with $120 million gross profit and first full-year positive gross profit of $144 million, despite 9,745 deliveries.
- NIO's full-year 2025 deliveries reached 326,028 units (up 46.9% YoY), far outpacing Rivian's 42,247 units (down 18% YoY).
- NIO's vehicle margin hit 18.1% in Q4 2025, up from 13.1% YoY; Rivian's consolidated gross margin was 9% amid automotive challenges.
- NIO guides Q1 2026 deliveries to 80,000-83,000; Rivian targets 62,000-67,000 for full-year 2026.
- Both face EV market headwinds, but NIO shows stronger scale and profitability momentum.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
NIO and RIVN compete in the premium electric vehicle segment, with NIO dominating China's vast market through brands like NIO, ONVO, and FIREFLY, while Rivian targets adventure-oriented U.S. consumers with R1 models and commercial vans. Recent earnings highlight divergent paths: NIO's scale drives profitability, while Rivian focuses on cost discipline and upcoming R2 launch. This comparison reveals execution in deliveries, margins, and growth amid global EV slowdowns, informing investor views on resilience and expansion potential.
NIO Inc. Focus
NIO reported Q4 2025 results on March 10, 2026, posting record revenue of RMB34,650.2 million ($4,954.9 million), up 75.9% from Q4 2024. Vehicle sales led with RMB31,606 million, fueled by 124,807 deliveries (71.7% YoY growth), including 67,433 NIO, 38,290 ONVO, and 19,084 FIREFLY units. Gross margin expanded to 17.5% (from 11.7% YoY), with vehicle margin at 18.1%. The company achieved its first operating profit of RMB807.3 million and net profit of RMB282.7 million. Full-year 2025 revenue was RMB87,487.5 million (up 33.1% YoY), with 326,028 deliveries. Guidance calls for Q1 2026 deliveries of 80,000-83,000 units and revenue of RMB24,482-25,176 million.
Rivian Automotive Context
Rivian released Q4 2025 results on February 12, 2026, with revenue of $1.29 billion (down 25.8% YoY but beating estimates), including $839 million automotive and strong software/services growth. Consolidated gross profit was $120 million (9% margin), despite automotive gross loss of $59 million. Adjusted EPS was -$0.53 to -$0.66, better than consensus. Q4 production was 10,974 units; deliveries 9,745. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 8% to ~$5.29 billion, with first positive gross profit of $144 million (from -$1.2 billion in 2024) and deliveries of 42,247. 2026 guidance: 62,000-67,000 deliveries, adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.8-2.1 billion.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
NIO dwarfs Rivian in scale, with 2025 deliveries ~8x higher and Q4 revenue ~4x larger (RMB34.7B vs. $1.29B). NIO's profitability milestone contrasts Rivian's ongoing losses, though Rivian's gross profit progress signals efficiency gains. Growth drivers: NIO leverages multi-brand expansion and battery swapping in China; Rivian bets on R2 SUV ramp and software (up 222% YoY). Risks include China's price wars for NIO and U.S. demand softness/tariffs for Rivian. Sentiment favors NIO's momentum, with market cap ~$10-14B vs. Rivian's ~$19B despite superior volume.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors NIO with 65% probability over the next 12 months, citing superior earnings quality (first profit), delivery scale (326K vs. 42K in 2025), and 18.1% vehicle margins vs. Rivian's automotive losses. NIO's Q1 guidance signals continued momentum, outweighing Rivian's R2 potential amid execution risks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is NIO is a Hold and RIVN is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
NIO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileRIVN’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- NIO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- RIVN’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
NIO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while RIVN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- NIO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- RIVN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
NIO (@Motor Vehicles) experienced а -12.15% price change this week, while RIVN (@Motor Vehicles) price change was -9.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Motor Vehicles industry was -6.90%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
NIO is expected to report earnings on Sep 09, 2026.
RIVN is expected to report earnings on Aug 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Motor Vehicles (-6.90% weekly)Automobiles continue to be arguably the most popular form of passenger travel in the U.S., and major automobile makers have revenues and market capitalizations running into multi-billions. In recent years, the industry has been experiencing some path-breaking innovations like electric vehicles and self-driving technology. While there are long-standing companies like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota Motors operating in this space, there are also emerging/rapidly growing players like Tesla – which has had a major role in the growing popularity of the electric vehicle market. With technological advancements taking steam in the auto space, we’ve also witnessed collaborations (or talks of potential partnerships) of carmakers with tech behemoths like Google’s subsidiary, Waymo.
| NIO | RIVN | NIO / RIVN | |
| Capitalization | 14B | 21.1B | 66% |
| EBITDA | -7.54B | -2.45B | 307% |
| Gain YTD | 3.529 | -20.193 | -17% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 101B | 5.53B | 1,827% |
| Total Cash | 31.8B | 4.83B | 658% |
| Total Debt | 26.6B | 6.58B | 405% |
NIO | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 8 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| NIO | RIVN | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 85% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 81% | 7 days ago 83% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 88% | 5 days ago 89% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 88% |
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NIO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NIO has been loosely correlated with XPEV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NIO jumps, then XPEV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NIO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIO | 100% | -3.12% | ||
| XPEV - NIO | 54% Loosely correlated | -2.21% | ||
| LI - NIO | 46% Loosely correlated | -2.82% | ||
| GP - NIO | 29% Poorly correlated | +2.80% | ||
| WKHS - NIO | 28% Poorly correlated | -3.06% | ||
| CENN - NIO | 28% Poorly correlated | -1.25% | ||
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