NIO stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker, targeting the premium segment... Show more
Why NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Is Down -20.7% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- NIO's American depositary shares fell roughly 20.7% over the last 30 days, declining from a closing price of $4.63 on August 21 to $3.67 on September 21.
- The pullback extended a longer downtrend, with the stock down approximately 27% over the last quarter, from about $5.05 in late June.
- Second-quarter results delivered on margins and profitability, but weak third-quarter delivery guidance and a warning about rising per-vehicle costs outweighed the positives.
- J.P. Morgan downgraded NIO to Neutral and cut its price target, while Citi and BofA also trimmed their targets following the earnings report.
- Softness in the ONVO sub-brand and a cooling Chinese electric-vehicle market added to investor concerns about demand momentum.
NIO Inc. (NIO) Company Overview and Market Position
NIO Inc. is a Shanghai-headquartered designer and manufacturer of premium smart electric vehicles, listed in the United States as an American depositary receipt on the NYSE. The company operates a multi-brand strategy spanning the flagship NIO premium line, the more affordable ONVO brand, and the compact FIREFLY range, which together target a broad spectrum of price points in the Chinese EV market.
NIO is best known for its battery-swapping ecosystem, an extensive network of swap stations that differentiates it from peers, along with its battery-as-a-service offering. The company also generates revenue from charging solutions, energy services, and connected-vehicle offerings. Investors follow NIO closely because it is one of the few Chinese EV startups to reach sustained adjusted profitability, while its heavy capital spending on swapping infrastructure and sub-brands keeps margin and cash-flow execution at the center of the investment debate.
NIO Inc. (NIO) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, NIO shares fell about 20.7%, from a closing price of $4.63 on August 21 to $3.67 on September 21. The decline was not linear: shares dropped sharply in early September after the company's second-quarter report and guidance, then traded near their 52-week low of roughly $3.58 before a modest stabilization.
The weakness reflects a longer-running slide rather than a single-day event. Over the last quarter, the stock has declined approximately 27%, from about $5.05 in late June. That three-month move shows a sustained trend of lower highs and lower lows, with each bounce proving short-lived as demand and margin concerns repeatedly reasserted themselves.
What Drove NIO Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The sharpest catalyst was NIO's second-quarter earnings report, released on September 1. Revenue rose 69.1% year over year to about RMB 32.1 billion, deliveries climbed 49.4% to 107,658 vehicles, and vehicle gross margin reached 18.5%, up from 10.3% a year earlier. The company also posted its first adjusted net profit. Those results, however, failed to support the share price.
Investors instead focused on soft forward guidance. NIO guided to just 108,000–111,000 third-quarter deliveries, implying almost no sequential growth, with revenue guidance of RMB 33.3 billion–34.1 billion. Founder William Li added that per-vehicle costs are expected to rise by another RMB 2,000–3,000 in the second half, after an increase of roughly RMB 14,000 in the second quarter, driven by higher prices for memory chips, batteries, and bulk materials linked to AI data-center demand.
Analyst actions compounded the pressure. J.P. Morgan downgraded NIO to Neutral from Overweight and cut its price target to $4.50 from $7.00, citing sluggish demand, intensifying price competition, and limited overseas exposure. Citi and BofA also lowered their price targets. Demand signals added to the gloom: August deliveries of 35,836 vehicles were nearly flat versus July, and the ONVO sub-brand delivered just 8,810 units, down sharply both sequentially and year over year.
What Drove NIO Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline reflects a broader narrative shift in how the market values NIO. After the company's first quarterly profit in late 2025, investors pivoted from rewarding progress toward breakeven to demanding evidence of durable, growing profitability. Over the past three months, a softening Chinese passenger-vehicle market, cooling demand for the ONVO sub-brand, and rising input costs eroded confidence in that trajectory.
Macro factors also weighed on sentiment. Uncertainty around U.S.-China trade policy, including discussions over a tariff truce, pressured Chinese EV names broadly. Within the sector, XPEV and LI faced similar selling pressure, while TSLA also traded below its highs. NIO's combination of thin adjusted profit margins, heavy capital needs, and a competitive premium EV segment made it especially vulnerable to the sector-wide de-rating.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page highlights a curated selection of AI-driven trading bots from a much larger universe. Tickeron offers hundreds of AI trading bots that trade thousands of tickers, but only top-performing and most relevant bots appear in this section, giving traders a filtered view of strategies that are currently standing out. These bots vary widely in strategy, timeframe, and performance metrics, so investors can compare approaches that range from short-term momentum to longer-horizon trend following. Exploring the page can help traders identify AI models whose recent track records and style align with their own objectives and risk tolerance.
NIO Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on several factors. Monthly delivery figures will be closely watched, particularly whether the ONVO brand stabilizes and whether the flagship ES8 and ES9 models continue to support mix and margins. The company's third-quarter report, expected in November, will show whether vehicle gross margin holds near 18.5% against the additional per-vehicle cost increases management has flagged.
Beyond company fundamentals, broader demand in China's passenger-vehicle market, the trajectory of memory-chip and battery input costs, and the status of U.S.-China trade discussions remain important. Competitive dynamics in the premium EV segment, where rivals such as BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, XPeng, and Huawei-backed brands compete, will also shape sentiment. These are monitoring considerations, not forecasts, and the stock's elevated volatility underscores the importance of independent research.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
NIO in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on September 29, 2026
NIO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 29 of 35 cases where NIO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NIO just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where NIO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NIO advanced for three days, in 204 of 260 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 25, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NIO as a result. In 79 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NIO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
The Aroon Indicator for NIO entered a downward trend on October 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 72 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (14.859) is normal, around the industry mean (8.703). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (493.775). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.450). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.513) is also within normal values, averaging (2.589).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NIO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NIO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a manufacturer of electric cars
Industry MotorVehicles