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SBUX vs TXRH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Starbucks (SBUX) vs. Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Starbucks is in the second year of a turnaround led by CEO Brian Niccol, with traffic-led comparable sales growth now translating into margin expansion and raised profit guidance.
- Texas Roadhouse continues to generate steady unit growth and record average weekly sales, though beef and labor inflation continue to pressure restaurant margins.
- Both companies operate in the consumer discretionary restaurant space, making them sensitive to household spending shifts and broader sector sentiment.
- SBUX offers a higher dividend yield and a global brand reach, while TXRH offers a faster-growing store footprint and historically consistent traffic gains.
- Relative performance has diverged recently, with both stocks pulling back amid a broader sell-off in consumer names despite improving fundamentals.
Introduction
Investors comparing SBUX and TXRH are effectively weighing two different restaurant-industry narratives. Starbucks Corporation is a global coffee giant attempting to reclaim brand momentum through a disciplined operational turnaround, while Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a fast-growing casual-dining steakhouse chain built on unit expansion and consistent guest traffic. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and long-term investors seeking to understand how relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning differ between a large-cap consumer staple-adjacent brand and a mid-cap growth operator. Both stocks offer insight into consumer resilience and restaurant-sector economics.
SBUX Overview and Recent Performance
Starbucks (SBUX), the world's largest coffeehouse chain with roughly 41,000 locations globally, has been executing its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround under CEO Brian Niccol. In recent weeks, the company reported fiscal third-quarter results that showed global comparable store sales rising 7.9%, driven by a 4.2% increase in transactions and a 3.5% rise in average ticket. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) climbed 70% year over year to $0.85, and non-GAAP operating margin expanded 430 basis points to 14.4%. Management raised its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $2.55 to $2.65.
Despite these improvements, SBUX shares pulled back in recent market activity amid a broader decline in consumer stocks tied to higher gasoline prices and household-spending concerns. The company also announced plans to close roughly 250 underperforming North American cafes, about 1% of its footprint, with associated restructuring charges of about $300 million. The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple near 32, with a dividend yield around 2.6%.
TXRH Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) is a casual-dining steakhouse operator with more than 830 restaurants across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten foreign countries. The company's growth model combines consistent unit expansion with strong same-restaurant sales. In recent results, total revenue rose 11.1% year over year to about $1.68 billion, while average weekly sales reached a record of roughly $175,700. Comparable restaurant sales continued to grow in the mid-single digits, supported by solid traffic gains.
However, margin performance has been tempered by cost pressures. Commodity inflation, driven primarily by beef, was around 5% in the most recent outlook, while wage and other labor inflation ran in the 3% to 4% range. Restaurant margin as a percentage of sales declined modestly as a result. TXRH carries a market capitalization near $10.5 billion and pays a quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share. The stock has also experienced recent volatility alongside the wider restaurant sector, despite strong underlying sales trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
These two companies diverge sharply on scale, growth model, and risk profile. SBUX is a large-cap global operator with roughly $108 billion in market capitalization, a mature store base, and a recovery story centered on restoring traffic and expanding margins. Its revenue base is broad, spanning company-operated stores, licensed locations, and packaged coffee, and it recently restructured its China operations into a joint venture. TXRH, by contrast, is a mid-cap growth name with a market capitalization near $10.5 billion, a predominantly U.S. footprint, and a business model built on opening new restaurants and sustaining high traffic at existing ones.
On growth drivers, SBUX is leaning on menu innovation, service improvements, and cost discipline, while TXRH is compounding through store-week growth of 5% to 6% and resilient same-restaurant sales. Risk factors also differ: Starbucks faces consumer-discretionary sensitivity and a premium valuation, whereas Texas Roadhouse faces concentrated exposure to beef-cost inflation and labor expense. From a sector-exposure standpoint, both are tied to restaurant spending, but Starbucks' global diversification contrasts with Texas Roadhouse's domestic concentration and more direct commodity risk.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst clarity, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor SBUX in the current environment. Starbucks' traffic-led comparable sales growth, expanding operating margin, and upwardly revised profit guidance represent a clearer and more consistent improvement trend, even though its premium valuation leaves limited room for error. TXRH remains a fundamentally strong operator with reliable sales momentum, but persistent commodity-driven margin pressure and a smaller, more concentrated footprint introduce greater uncertainty into its near-term earnings trajectory. The AI's preference for SBUX reflects a probabilistic assessment of trend stability and catalysts rather than a definitive forecast, and relative positioning could shift as new data emerges.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SBUX is a Hold and TXRH is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for SBUX turns negative, indicating new downward trend
SBUX saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 07, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 57 of the 90 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for SBUX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SBUX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Aroon Indicator for SBUX entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SBUX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 62 cases where SBUX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SBUX just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SBUX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +0.60% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SBUX advanced for three days, in 171 of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
SBUX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SBUX's P/B Ratio (-20.594) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.328). P/E Ratio (55.069) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.128) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.901) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SBUX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SBUX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
TXRH's RSI Oscillator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for TXRH moved out of oversold territory on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 19 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 14 of the 19 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TXRH as a result. In 61 of 104 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TXRH just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where TXRH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Following a +4.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TXRH advanced for three days, in 189 of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
TXRH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 35 of 65 cases where TXRH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TXRH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for TXRH entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.676) is normal, around the industry mean (5.328). P/E Ratio (25.352) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.577) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.805) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TXRH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
SBUX | TXRH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 31 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 10 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SBUX's Valuation (21) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as TXRH (31). This means that SBUX’s stock grew similarly to TXRH’s over the last 12 months.
TXRH's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Restaurants industry is significantly better than the same rating for SBUX (100). This means that TXRH’s stock grew significantly faster than SBUX’s over the last 12 months.
SBUX's SMR Rating (10) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as TXRH (35). This means that SBUX’s stock grew similarly to TXRH’s over the last 12 months.
SBUX's Price Growth Rating (58) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as TXRH (71). This means that SBUX’s stock grew similarly to TXRH’s over the last 12 months.
SBUX's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Restaurants industry is in the same range as TXRH (38). This means that SBUX’s stock grew similarly to TXRH’s over the last 12 months.
| SBUX | TXRH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 54% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 16 days ago 58% | 9 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 73% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SBUX’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while TXRH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- SBUX’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TXRH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SBUX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TXRH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SBUX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TXRH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
SBUX (@Restaurants) experienced а -4.28% price change this week, while TXRH (@Restaurants) price change was -0.85% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Restaurants industry was +1.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was +0.71%.
Reported Earning Dates
SBUX is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
TXRH is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Restaurants (+1.53% weekly)The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.
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SBUX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SBUX has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SBUX jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SBUX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBUX | 100% | -0.31% | ||
| FRSH - SBUX | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.14% | ||
| TXRH - SBUX | 43% Loosely correlated | +2.12% | ||
| DRI - SBUX | 40% Loosely correlated | +3.00% | ||
| CAKE - SBUX | 39% Loosely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| BLMN - SBUX | 39% Loosely correlated | +5.02% | ||
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TXRH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TXRH has been loosely correlated with DRI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TXRH jumps, then DRI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TXRH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXRH | 100% | +2.12% | ||
| DRI - TXRH | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.00% | ||
| CAKE - TXRH | 55% Loosely correlated | +3.09% | ||
| FRSH - TXRH | 48% Loosely correlated | -0.14% | ||
| BLMN - TXRH | 46% Loosely correlated | +5.02% | ||
| BJRI - TXRH | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.63% | ||
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