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SHEL vs XOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Shell plc (SHEL) vs. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- XOM has outperformed SHEL year-to-date (YTD, a measure of performance from the start of the current year), with returns around 29% compared to SHEL's 23%.
- Both stocks have benefited from elevated oil prices amid geopolitical disruptions, supporting upstream earnings.
- SHEL offers a higher dividend yield at approximately 3.34%, appealing to income-focused investors, while XOM maintains a 43-year dividend growth streak.
- XOM's recent Q1 earnings beat estimates by 15%, bolstering market sentiment, alongside SHEL's ARC Resources deal projecting $1.5 billion in annual free cash flow (FCF, cash generated after capital expenditures).
- XOM trades at a higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 26 versus SHEL's 15, reflecting premium valuation for its scale and momentum.
- Tickeron's AI models highlight XOM's relative strength in recent trend consistency amid energy sector volatility.
Introduction
Shell plc (SHEL) and Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) stand as two of the world's largest integrated energy companies, spanning upstream exploration, downstream refining, and increasingly, low-carbon initiatives. This stock comparison is particularly relevant for energy sector investors and traders navigating volatile oil markets driven by geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions. With both firms exposed to crude price swings, understanding their relative performance, business models, and recent catalysts helps assess positioning in the current environment. Traders seeking momentum plays or dividend stability, as well as long-term investors eyeing sector resilience, will find value in evaluating SHEL against XOM for portfolio allocation.
SHEL Overview and Recent Performance
Shell plc (SHEL) is a global energy major with a diversified portfolio emphasizing liquefied natural gas (LNG), integrated oil and gas operations, and renewable energy transitions. In recent market activity, SHEL's shares have risen approximately 23% YTD, supported by firmer oil prices from Middle East tensions and supply constraints. Key developments include a strategic deal with ARC Resources, expected to deliver $1.5 billion in annual FCF through Montney assets and LNG exposure, enhancing long-term growth prospects. Analyst upgrades, such as TD Cowen's Buy rating tied to over $20 billion in buyback potential, have lifted sentiment. Trading near the upper end of its 52-week range (around $65-$95), SHEL reflects resilience but faces refining margin pressures amid volatile commodity dynamics.
XOM Overview and Recent Performance
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), the largest publicly traded oil company by market cap, operates across upstream production, refining, chemicals, and emerging low-carbon technologies. Recent weeks have seen XOM advance about 29% YTD, outpacing broader markets on strong operational execution and elevated crude benchmarks. The Q1 2026 earnings release highlighted a 15% EPS (earnings per share) beat, with adjusted EPS of $1.16, alongside $20 billion in share buybacks reinforcing capital return discipline. Geopolitical risks, including Hormuz Strait disruptions, have underscored XOM's portfolio flexibility. Shares hover in the middle of their 52-week range ($101-$176), balancing growth from upstream gains against downstream hedging impacts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Both SHEL and XOM operate integrated models blending upstream production and downstream refining, but XOM emphasizes U.S.-centric assets with greater scale (market cap ~$641 billion vs. $251 billion), while SHEL leans on international LNG and diversification. Growth drivers differ: XOM's 50% one-year return edges SHEL's 41%, fueled by Permian Basin momentum, versus SHEL's Montney and buyback catalysts. Recent momentum favors XOM post-earnings, though SHEL offers better value at a lower P/E. Risk factors include oil price volatility, with both exposed to geopolitics but SHEL showing lower beta (market sensitivity). Sector exposure aligns on energy, yet XOM garners stronger buy ratings amid relative outperformance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI models currently favor XOM over SHEL, driven by superior YTD momentum, Q1 earnings strength, and consistent uptrend positioning amid rising oil prices. Factors like larger scale, buyback execution, and analyst target upside (~7% to average $166) support probabilistic outperformance in the near term, though SHEL's valuation and dividend edge provide balance for diversified exposure.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is SHEL is a Buy and XOM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SHEL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileXOM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- SHEL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- XOM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
SHEL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while XOM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- SHEL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- XOM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
SHEL (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +0.30% price change this week, while XOM (@Integrated Oil) price change was -1.94% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.12%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
SHEL is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
XOM is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-0.04% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
| SHEL | XOM | SHEL / XOM | |
| Capitalization | 240B | 609B | 39% |
| EBITDA | 57.7B | 64.4B | 90% |
| Gain YTD | 18.732 | 23.811 | 79% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.34 | 24.75 | 54% |
| Revenue | 267B | 326B | 82% |
| Total Cash | 23.1B | 8.44B | 274% |
| Total Debt | 75.6B | 47.7B | 158% |
SHEL | XOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 29 Undervalued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 70 | 73 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SHEL's Valuation (29) in the null industry is in the same range as XOM (44) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the null industry is in the same range as XOM (7) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's SMR Rating (70) in the null industry is in the same range as XOM (73) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
SHEL's Price Growth Rating (49) in the null industry is in the same range as XOM (49) in the Integrated Oil industry. This means that SHEL’s stock grew similarly to XOM’s over the last 12 months.
XOM's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHEL (71) in the null industry. This means that XOM’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHEL’s over the last 12 months.
| SHEL | XOM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 51% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 47% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 51% | 12 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 46% | 10 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 34% | 3 days ago 62% |
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SHEL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHEL has been closely correlated with BP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SHEL jumps, then BP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SHEL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHEL | 100% | -0.22% | ||
| BP - SHEL | 76% Closely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| E - SHEL | 73% Closely correlated | -1.04% | ||
| CRGY - SHEL | 71% Closely correlated | +0.87% | ||
| EQNR - SHEL | 67% Closely correlated | -1.55% | ||
| XOM - SHEL | 66% Closely correlated | +0.28% | ||
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