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STX vs WDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) vs. Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both STX and WDC have delivered exceptional year-to-date gains, with WDC at approximately 96% and STX at 82%, fueled by surging demand for hard disk drives (HDDs) in AI data centers.
- WDC boasts higher one-year returns around 835% compared to STX's 583%, alongside superior trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue growth of 28% versus 25%.
- Recent quarters show strong earnings beats: STX reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $2.83 billion and EPS of $3.11, while WDC posted Q4 CY2025 revenue of $3.02 billion and EPS of $2.13.
- Analysts remain bullish, with Morgan Stanley favoring STX as its top IT hardware pick (price target $582) and maintaining Overweight on WDC ($380 target).
- Market caps are closely matched at ~$112B for STX and ~$115B for WDC, with WDC trading at a lower trailing P/E of 32 versus STX's 57.
- Both face HDD cyclicality risks but benefit from multi-year AI-driven contracts and capacity sold out through 2026-2028.
Introduction
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) and Western Digital Corporation (WDC) dominate the hard disk drive (HDD) market, a duopoly powering data storage for AI hyperscalers, cloud providers, and enterprise data centers. This comparison analyzes their recent stock performance, financial momentum, and market positioning amid explosive AI infrastructure demand. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term growth in data storage will find value in understanding their relative strengths, valuation trade-offs, and sentiment drivers in the current high-growth environment.
STX Overview and Recent Performance
Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) designs, manufactures, and sells HDDs, solid-state drives (SSDs), and storage solutions for data centers, PCs, and external applications. In recent market activity, STX shares have surged, reflecting robust AI-driven demand for mass-capacity storage. Year-to-date gains exceed 82%, with one-year returns topping 580%. Key influences include Q2 FY26 results with $2.83 billion in revenue (up 21.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.11, beating estimates. Margin expansion and leadership in heat-assisted magnetic recording (HAMR) technology have boosted sentiment. Recent developments, such as the sale of Lyve Cloud to Wasabi Technologies, refocus operations on core HDDs amid rising prices and sold-out capacity. Analyst upgrades, including Morgan Stanley's top pick status, underscore positive momentum.
WDC Overview and Recent Performance
Western Digital Corporation (WDC) develops and sells HDDs, SSDs, and storage systems for cloud, enterprise, and consumer markets, with a focus on data center platforms post-SanDisk restructuring. Recent weeks have seen WDC shares rally sharply, driven by AI storage needs. Year-to-date performance stands at about 96%, outpacing peers, with one-year gains near 835%. Q4 CY2025 delivered $3.02 billion in revenue (up 25.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.13, exceeding forecasts. Guidance for Q1 CY2026 at $3.2 billion signals continued growth, supported by HDD capacity sold through 2028. Collaborations on quantum error correction and analyst target hikes from Morgan Stanley and Bernstein have enhanced sentiment, despite broader sector volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
STX and WDC share an HDD-focused business model, with 80-90% of revenues from data centers amid AI growth. WDC edges in diversification via SSDs and recent restructuring, posting stronger LTM revenue (10.7B vs. 10.1B) and EBITDA, while STX leads in HAMR tech for higher capacities. Momentum favors WDC YTD (96% vs. 82%), but STX shows better risk-adjusted returns (lower beta 1.63 vs. 1.83). Valuation contrasts: WDC's trailing P/E of 32 is more attractive than STX's 57, though forward multiples converge (~27-26). Risks include cyclical demand and NAND competition; sentiment tilts bullish on capacity constraints but notes WDC's sold-out pipeline through 2028 as a key edge.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward WDC for its superior recent momentum, lower valuation, and stronger revenue trajectory amid AI catalysts. Factors like higher YTD gains, earnings beats, and extended capacity contracts suggest greater trend consistency and relative upside potential, though STX remains competitive on tech leadership. Probabilistic edge favors WDC in the near term based on observable positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is STX is a Hold and WDC is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
STX’s FA Score shows that 4 FA rating(s) are green whileWDC’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s).
- STX’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- WDC’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
STX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WDC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- STX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WDC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
STX (@Computer Processing Hardware) experienced а +8.87% price change this week, while WDC (@Computer Processing Hardware) price change was +8.47% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Computer Processing Hardware industry was +10.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.24%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.82%.
Reported Earning Dates
STX is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
WDC is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Computer Processing Hardware (+10.33% weekly)Computer Processing Hardware industry produces central processing unit, monitor, keyboard, computer data storage devices, and graphics card. Business activity and economic growth are potential drivers of this industry – if more businesses are growing or flourishing, so would their investments in computer equipment. Dell Technologies, Inc, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co., NCR Corporation are key producers of computer processing hardware.
| STX | WDC | STX / WDC | |
| Capitalization | 123B | 126B | 98% |
| EBITDA | 2.74B | 4.37B | 63% |
| Gain YTD | 99.247 | 116.345 | 85% |
| P/E Ratio | 61.89 | 35.21 | 176% |
| Revenue | 10.1B | 10.7B | 94% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 4.04B | - |
| Total Debt | 4.8B | 4.66B | 103% |
STX | WDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 20 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 3 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 4 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 1 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 5 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WDC's Valuation (69) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as STX (95). This means that WDC’s stock grew similarly to STX’s over the last 12 months.
WDC's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as STX (3). This means that WDC’s stock grew similarly to STX’s over the last 12 months.
STX's SMR Rating (4) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as WDC (24). This means that STX’s stock grew similarly to WDC’s over the last 12 months.
STX's Price Growth Rating (1) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as WDC (1). This means that STX’s stock grew similarly to WDC’s over the last 12 months.
STX's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as WDC (5). This means that STX’s stock grew similarly to WDC’s over the last 12 months.
| STX | WDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 5 days ago 79% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 83% |
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| EWX | 73.55 | 1.88 | +2.62% |
| State Street® SPDR® S&P® EM Sm Cp ETF | |||
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| State Street® CnsmrDiscSelSectSPDR®ETF | |||
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| AB California Intermediate Municipal ETF | |||
| QRMI | 15.44 | 0.05 | +0.32% |
| Global X NASDAQ 100® Risk Mngd Inc ETF | |||
| RWM | 14.62 | -0.29 | -1.95% |
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STX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, STX has been closely correlated with WDC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if STX jumps, then WDC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To STX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX | 100% | +3.00% | ||
| WDC - STX | 88% Closely correlated | +2.99% | ||
| SNDK - STX | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| NTAP - STX | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| ANET - STX | 33% Poorly correlated | +2.00% | ||
| DELL - STX | 25% Poorly correlated | +1.79% | ||
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WDC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, WDC has been closely correlated with STX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if WDC jumps, then STX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To WDC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDC | 100% | +2.99% | ||
| STX - WDC | 88% Closely correlated | +3.00% | ||
| SNDK - WDC | 67% Closely correlated | +0.17% | ||
| NTAP - WDC | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.82% | ||
| LOGI - WDC | 52% Loosely correlated | +2.05% | ||
| PSTG - WDC | 43% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
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