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STX vs WDC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) vs. Western Digital Corporation (WDC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- STX and WDC together dominate the hard disk drive (HDD) market and are both direct beneficiaries of artificial intelligence (AI) demand for cloud data-center storage.
- Seagate closed fiscal 2026 with revenue up 34% to $12.2 billion and a record $3.1 billion in free cash flow; Western Digital's most recent quarter delivered revenue up 55% year over year with a non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) gross margin of 58.1%.
- Seagate's HAMR (heat-assisted magnetic recording) Mozaic platform anchors its pricing and margin story, while Western Digital is ramping ePMR (energy-assisted perpendicular magnetic recording) drives up to 40TB and plans its own HAMR rollout in the first half of calendar 2027.
- Both stocks have pulled back sharply from mid-2026 peaks as investors weigh the durability of AI capital spending and the potential for rising HDD supply, including expansion by Toshiba.
- Relative positioning differs: STX carries a larger market capitalization near $143 billion, while WDC trades at a lower earnings multiple but has signaled materially higher capital spending plans.
- For deeper, real-time coverage, explore STX Major News and STX Today's Price Move, along with WDC Major News and WDC Today's Price Move.
- Curious how automated strategies are positioning across this sector? Explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) and Western Digital Corporation (WDC) are the two dominant players in the hard disk drive industry, a market that has re-emerged as a focal point of the AI infrastructure buildout. Both supply the high-capacity nearline HDDs used in cloud data centers, where demand has outpaced supply and driven strong pricing power. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors tracking the storage cycle, AI-related hardware momentum, and relative performance between two close competitors. Because the two companies share similar demand drivers but differ in technology roadmaps, capital spending, and valuation, a head-to-head review helps clarify market positioning and the trade-offs each name presents.
STX Overview and Recent Performance
STX, or Seagate Technology Holdings, generates the vast majority of its revenue from hard disk drives and related data-storage products, with data-center customers now accounting for roughly 80% of sales. In its fiscal 2026, which ended in early July, revenue climbed 34% to $12.2 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit per share) reached $15.58, alongside record free cash flow of $3.1 billion. Its most recent quarter showed non-GAAP gross margin of 52.7% and EPS of $5.71, both exceeding analyst expectations.
Recent market activity has been shaped by strong cloud demand and the ramp of Seagate's HAMR-based Mozaic drives, which improve storage density and support higher pricing. However, shares have retreated from an all-time high reached in June, reflecting broader AI-sector volatility, reports of a potential bidding contest for TDK's HDD head business, and concerns that production yields and HDD supply could shift the supply-demand balance. Analysts have maintained a broadly positive view, with several price targets well above recent trading levels.
WDC Overview and Recent Performance
WDC, or Western Digital Corporation (which rebranded as "WD"), is a rival HDD and storage-device maker that has also ridden the AI storage boom. In its fiscal first quarter ended early October, revenue rose 55% year over year to $4.38 billion, while non-GAAP EPS of $4.64 climbed 161% and adjusted gross margin expanded to 58.1%. The company shipped 248 exabytes (an exabyte equals one billion gigabytes) in the quarter, up 22% year over year, and raised its quarterly dividend by 17%.
Like its peer, WDC has seen its stock pull back more than 50% from June highs despite beating estimates, as investors weigh the sustainability of AI capital spending and the risk of rising HDD capacity. Management guided for another strong quarter, forecasting revenue of $5.1 billion, and emphasized visibility into customer demand extending toward 2030–2031. The company is also investing more aggressively, signaling capital spending that could rise above its historical 4%–6% of revenue range over the next two years as it expands supply and advances its ePMR and HAMR roadmaps.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although STX and WDC share the same core demand driver, their market positioning differs in several respects. Seagate is more concentrated in HDDs, with over 90% of revenue tied to the category, and has led the transition to HAMR technology through its Mozaic platform, giving it a differentiated cost and density roadmap. Western Digital also carries a substantial NAND (flash-memory) and SSD (solid-state drive) legacy, though its cloud nearline HDD business is now the primary growth engine.
On recent momentum, both companies reported beats and strong margins, but Western Digital posted a higher adjusted gross margin (58.1% versus Seagate's 52.7%) and guided to further expansion. Valuation presents a contrast: STX trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the high teens, while WDC trades near a mid-teens multiple. Risk factors also diverge — Seagate faces execution risk around HAMR production yields and the potential for M&A (merger and acquisition) activity in the HDD component supply chain, while Western Digital faces scrutiny over its rising capital spending and whether elevated pricing can persist once supply catches up. Both stocks are sensitive to hyperscaler demand and to any indication that HDD supply is accelerating.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin momentum, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI framework would likely express a measured preference for STX in the current environment. Seagate's larger market capitalization, differentiated HAMR roadmap, record free cash flow, and more conservative capacity posture suggest greater stability and earnings visibility, even as both names carry similar exposure to the AI storage cycle. That said, WDC currently shows stronger reported gross margins and a lower earnings multiple, which could tilt the balance if pricing power proves durable. The distinction is probabilistic rather than definitive: the AI's preference reflects relative trend and stability factors, and the ranking could shift as supply dynamics, capital spending, and sentiment evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is STX is a Hold and WDC is a Buy.
STX's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for STX turned positive on October 29, 2026. Looking at past instances where STX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where STX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 48 of 58 cases where STX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on STX as a result. In 67 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +4.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where STX advanced for three days, in 279 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
STX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
STX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for STX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where STX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for STX entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. STX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: STX's P/B Ratio (73.503) is slightly higher than the industry average of (-7.717). P/E Ratio (48.173) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.817). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.527) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.706) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
WDC's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for WDC moved out of oversold territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on WDC as a result. In 63 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for WDC just turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where WDC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 40 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +11.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WDC advanced for three days, in 290 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
WDC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WDC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for WDC entered a downward trend on October 27, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WDC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (16.083) is normal, around the industry mean (-7.717). P/E Ratio (14.688) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-2.817). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.863) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.361) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
STX | WDC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 34 | 52 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 9 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 90 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 39 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
WDC's Valuation (75) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as STX (94). This means that WDC’s stock grew similarly to STX’s over the last 12 months.
STX's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as WDC (52). This means that STX’s stock grew similarly to WDC’s over the last 12 months.
STX's SMR Rating (9) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as WDC (12). This means that STX’s stock grew similarly to WDC’s over the last 12 months.
WDC's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Computer Peripherals industry is in the same range as STX (42). This means that WDC’s stock grew similarly to STX’s over the last 12 months.
STX's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Computer Peripherals industry is significantly better than the same rating for WDC (90). This means that STX’s stock grew significantly faster than WDC’s over the last 12 months.
| STX | WDC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 81% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 71% | 8 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
STX’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while WDC’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- STX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- WDC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
STX’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while WDC’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- STX’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- WDC’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
STX (@Computer Processing Hardware) experienced а +9.08% price change this week, while WDC (@Computer Processing Hardware) price change was +11.64% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Computer Processing Hardware industry was -6.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -22.56%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10.23%.
Reported Earning Dates
STX is expected to report earnings on Jan 27, 2027.
WDC is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Computer Processing Hardware (-6.60% weekly)Computer Processing Hardware industry produces central processing unit, monitor, keyboard, computer data storage devices, and graphics card. Business activity and economic growth are potential drivers of this industry – if more businesses are growing or flourishing, so would their investments in computer equipment. Dell Technologies, Inc, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co., NCR Corporation are key producers of computer processing hardware.
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