The investment seeks long-term capital appreciation... Show more
HBMX is an actively managed thematic exchange-traded fund (ETF) that seeks long-term capital appreciation by investing in "Memory Stack Companies" — firms involved in developing, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and commercializing memory semiconductors, along with the equipment and materials suppliers that support them. The strategy spans dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), NAND flash, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and emerging next-generation memory architectures. Under normal conditions the fund commits at least 80% of net assets to this ecosystem.
The portfolio is deliberately concentrated, holding roughly 28 positions with a top-ten weighting near 60%. Its largest holdings include Micron Technology (about 10%), Advantest (about 8.6%), Penguin Solutions (about 7%), SK hynix (about 5.5%), and ASML Holding (about 5.5%), alongside positions in Onto Innovation, Camtek, SanDisk, Rambus, and Lam Research. The fund is nearly all-in on technology, with U.S. issuers representing roughly half of assets and meaningful exposure to Japan, Israel, the Netherlands, and South Korea. It also holds economic exposure to Chinese memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) through a total return swap. With a 0.95% expense ratio and a modest asset base, this is a high-conviction, relatively concentrated vehicle whose returns are closely tied to memory pricing and AI infrastructure demand.
Over the trailing 30 days, HBMX declined roughly 27%, falling from about $24.18 per share to $17.65. The move was not gradual — the fund rallied to a recent closing peak near $26.24 in early October before giving back roughly a third of its value in a matter of weeks. A single session in early November produced a decline of about 15%, reflecting the event-driven, high-volatility character of the correction.
The quarterly picture tells a similar story. Measured from roughly three months earlier, when shares traded near $24.61, the fund is down approximately 28%. In other words, virtually the entire three-month loss was concentrated in the most recent weeks, after an extended stretch of strength through the summer and into early autumn.
The primary catalyst was a sharp de-rating of AI infrastructure and memory equities following the U.S. midterm elections. Democratic victories raised investor concerns that data-center construction — the single largest driver of demand for DRAM, HBM, and NAND — could face new permitting, power, and water restrictions, particularly after a Texas gubernatorial result that carried pledges to pause new data-center development. On the worst day of the move, the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 12.2%, its largest one-day drop since March 2020, with Micron down roughly 17.5%, SanDisk down about 22%, Western Digital (WDC) down more than 17%, and SK hynix's American depositary receipts (ADRs) down more than 13%.
The election-driven selloff compounded pre-existing worries. Fears of an emerging memory-chip glut, a reported decline in Micron's DRAM market share, softer handset guidance from Qualcomm, and a hotter-than-expected October consumer price index (CPI) reading that raised the odds of further Federal Reserve tightening all weighed on sentiment. Because HBMX is concentrated almost entirely in these names, the sector-wide repricing translated directly into fund-level losses.
The broader three-month trend reflects a sharp reversal rather than a steady decline. Through the summer, memory producers reported exceptional results — SK hynix and Micron both posted record revenue on surging HBM and DRAM pricing, and the fund tracked those gains toward its early-October peak. The subsequent unwind was driven less by weakening current fundamentals than by a reassessment of the sustainability of the cycle, as investors weighed whether record memory pricing and hyperscaler capital expenditure could persist. Morgan Stanley's "2028 earnings cliff" framing, which questioned whether supply would catch up to demand, and broader institutional rotation out of crowded AI infrastructure positions contributed to the drawdown.
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Going forward, the most important variables are likely to be data-center policy developments at the state and local level, the trajectory of interest rates and inflation, and the balance of memory supply and demand. Because the fund is concentrated in DRAM, HBM, and NAND producers and their equipment suppliers, memory pricing — and whether the current pricing supercycle can be sustained — will remain central to fund performance. Investors should monitor hyperscaler capital expenditure plans, the ramp of next-generation HBM4 products, and the pace of capacity additions across Micron, SK hynix, Samsung, and CXMT. The fund's small asset base and concentrated structure also introduce liquidity and single-theme concentration risks. These factors, rather than short-term price action, are likely to define the fund's trajectory in the months ahead.
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HBMX saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 4 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 4 of the 4 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HBMX turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 1 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 1 of the 1 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
HBMX moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HBMX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator for HBMX entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HBMX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 1 of 1 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +15.11% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HBMX advanced for three days, in 20 of 25 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows