Newmont (NEM) Earnings Date & Reports

Key Takeaways

• Analysts expect Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.18, a 74% year-over-year increase from $1.25 in Q1 2025.
• Consensus revenue forecast stands at $6.88 billion, driven by elevated gold prices above $4,500 per ounce.
• Newmont's full-year 2026 guidance targets 5.3 million attributable gold ounces at $1,680 per ounce all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a key metric including sustaining capital and operating expenses).
• Production expected 48% weighted to first half of 2026, with Q1 potentially pressured by ~60,000 ounces lost from Boddington bushfires.
• Newmont has beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters by an average of 25%.
• Recent stock surge of over 5% reflects optimism amid gold rally and strong Q4 2025 free cash flow of $2.8 billion.

Earnings Context and Why It Matters

Newmont Corporation (NEM), the world's largest gold miner, reports first-quarter 2026 earnings on April 23, after markets close. This release is pivotal as it kicks off the year following a transformative 2025, where the company hit record $7.3 billion free cash flow, reduced debt by $3.4 billion to a $2.1 billion net cash position, and completed $4.5 billion in non-core divestitures. With gold prices soaring past $4,500 per ounce amid economic uncertainty, investors eye Q1 for validation of margin expansion and progress on projects like Ahafo North. Amid a 52% H2 production weighting for 2026, Q1 insights into costs and output will shape views on full-year delivery of 5.3 million ounces and sustained shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks.

Earnings Expectations

Wall Street anticipates robust Q1 2026 results, with consensus adjusted EPS at $2.18 per share on $6.88 billion in revenue, per Yahoo Finance data from three and five analysts, respectively. This marks 74% EPS growth from Q1 2025's $1.25, fueled by higher gold realizations despite seasonal production dips.

Newmont aligns with its 2026 guidance of 5.3 million attributable gold ounces (±5%) at gold by-product AISC of $1,680 per ounce, with 52% production skewed to H2 due to mine sequencing. Investors watch gold equivalent ounces from copper (102,000 tonnes guided), silver (32 million ounces), and others, alongside Q1 tax payments exceeding $1 billion potentially denting cash flow.

Historically, Newmont crushed estimates: Q4 2025 EPS $2.52 vs. $2.03 (+24%), Q3 $1.71 vs. $1.44 (+19%), on strong operations and prices. Stock reactions have been mixed, dropping post-earnings in 7 of 12 prior reports, averaging modest moves, underscoring focus on guidance.

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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment

Heading into Q1 earnings, sentiment is bullish, with NEM shares up over 5% recently on gold strength and Q4 momentum, outperforming the materials sector. Options imply a ±5-6% move, consistent with history. Key risks include Q1 production shortfalls from weather events, rising AISC from sustaining capital ($1.95 billion guided), or Ghana tax hikes adding $50/oz. Beats could propel shares higher, but guidance tweaks on H2 ramp or copper byproducts will sway reactions.

Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Post-Q1, focus shifts to Newmont's execution against 2026 guidance: 5.3 million gold ounces at $1,680/oz AISC, with $1.95 billion sustaining capital for tailings at Cadia and Boddington, and $1.4 billion development for Tanami Expansion 2 and Cadia panel caves. Production trough in 2026 precedes growth to ~6 million ounces long-term via Ahafo North ramp-up and Lihir extension beyond 2040.

Monitor gold price sensitivity—AISC rises ~$6/oz per $100 gold increase—and byproducts: copper at 102,000 tonnes ($5/lb assumed), silver 32 million ounces ($60/oz). Q1 taxes over $1 billion may pressure cash flow, but $11.6 billion liquidity supports $1.1 billion annual dividend ($0.26/share Q4) and $2.4 billion remaining buybacks.

Broader dynamics include energy costs, Australian tailings investments, and divestiture proceeds fueling returns. Balanced cost control amid inflation will affirm margin expansion, with H2 weighting key for free cash flow trajectory.

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