AAON stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• AAON shares declined approximately 21.9% over the past 30 days, falling from a closing price of $95.55 on August 4, 2026, to $74.62 on September 2, 2026.
• The pullback extends a broader correction from a 52-week high near $150.46 reached in early June 2026, leaving the stock down roughly 49.7% over the trailing quarter.
• Record second-quarter 2026 results — revenue up 101.2% year over year to $627 million — beat expectations, but contracting margins and a lowered full-year gross margin outlook pressured the shares.
• Analysts trimmed price targets (Baird to $135 and Oppenheimer to $125) after the report, reinforcing a valuation-driven de-rating.
• Data center cooling demand through the BASX segment remains a core growth driver, though near-term margin execution and premium valuation remain central investor concerns.

AAON, Inc. (AAON) Company Overview and Market Position

AAON, Inc. is a Tulsa, Oklahoma-based manufacturer of commercial and industrial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Its product portfolio includes rooftop units, air handlers, condensing units, heat pumps, and custom coils, sold primarily through its AAON Oklahoma and AAON Coil Products segments. Through its BASX segment, the company supplies custom-engineered cooling solutions — including liquid cooling, air-side systems, and chillers — to hyperscale data centers and other precision-cooling environments.

Investors follow AAON closely because it sits at the intersection of two durable themes: commercial HVAC replacement demand and rapid growth in data center thermal management tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure. A roughly $2.0 billion backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility, and management has invested heavily in manufacturing capacity to convert that backlog into shipments.

AAON, Inc. (AAON) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter

Over the last 30 days, AAON fell from a closing price of $95.55 on August 4, 2026, to $74.62 on September 2, 2026, a decline of approximately 21.9%. The move was not a single-day event but a steady drift lower punctuated by a sharp post-earnings selloff in mid-August.

The quarterly picture is even more pronounced. AAON closed near $148.25 on June 3, 2026, shortly after reaching a 52-week intraday high of $150.46. From that level to the September 2 close of $74.62, the stock has dropped roughly 49.7%. This means the past 30 days account for only part of a multi-month unwind that began after the stock peaked in early June.

What Drove AAON Stock Price in the Last 30 Days

The most significant catalyst was the company's second-quarter 2026 earnings report, released August 10. AAON delivered record net sales of $627 million, up 101.2% year over year, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.69, up 213.6% — both well above consensus estimates. However, consolidated gross margin fell to 24.3% from 26.6% a year earlier, and management lowered its full-year 2026 gross margin outlook to a range of 25%–26%, down from 27%–28%, citing the costs of ramping recently added capacity, elevated outsourcing, and inflationary price-cost timing.

That margin reset overshadowed the revenue beat. Following the report, Baird lowered its price target from $150 to $135 while maintaining an Outperform rating, and Oppenheimer reduced its target from $145 to $125, also maintaining Outperform. Zacks Research had already downgraded the stock from "Strong-Buy" to "Hold" in early July, and KeyCorp initiated coverage with a neutral Sector Weight stance in August. The combination of softer near-term profitability and a premium valuation drove the de-rating during the period.

What Drove AAON Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter

The quarterly decline reflects a broader unwind of a rally that accelerated after first-quarter 2026 results in early May, when revenue grew 54.3% year over year and data center cooling momentum pushed the stock to record highs. As the shares approached $150, concerns over valuation began to outweigh the strong fundamental narrative.

Over the following months, investors reassessed the pace and profitability of AAON's rapid scaling. Margin compression from new facility ramp-up, the shift toward lower-margin product mix, and price-cost timing all weighed on sentiment. The August earnings report crystallized these concerns by formalizing a lower gross margin outlook, accelerating the repricing that had been building through the quarter.

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AAON Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next

Looking ahead, investors will monitor several factors. Third-quarter 2026 results and, in particular, BASX order and bookings trends will signal whether the large-project lumpiness cited by management is temporary or reflective of softer demand. Gross margin trajectory is another key metric, with management guiding toward sequential margin improvement in the second half as higher-priced backlog converts and the Memphis facility scales toward target utilization.

Beyond company-specific factors, the pace of data center capital investment, commercial HVAC end-market conditions, input-cost inflation, and the broader interest-rate environment all carry implications for AAON's growth and valuation. Backlog conversion and the company's ability to sustain pricing discipline will be central to whether the recent de-rating stabilizes or extends further.

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