Why ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) Is Down -31% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- AGQ declined approximately -31% over the past 30 days, driven by a sharp drop in silver prices amid a strengthening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation pressures from energy market shocks.
- Over the past quarter, the ETF fell around -39%, reflecting amplified volatility from its 2x leveraged structure following silver's peak in late January and subsequent correction.
- Silver futures, the core exposure of AGQ, retreated from highs near $120/oz in January to around $72/oz recently, exacerbated by higher interest rate expectations and geopolitical tensions impacting commodities.
- Fund inflows remained positive year-to-date but could not offset the leveraged downside from silver's bearish trend and daily reset compounding effects.
- Macro factors like oil-driven inflation and a firmer dollar outweighed industrial demand support for silver in these periods.
ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) Overview and Portfolio Exposure
The ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) is a leveraged exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to deliver two times (2x) the daily performance of the Bloomberg Silver Subindex, which tracks silver futures contracts. Launched in 2008, AGQ does not hold physical silver but achieves its objective through derivatives including silver futures (e.g., Silver Future May26 at 73% exposure) and total return swaps with counterparties like Citibank NA (54.23%), UBS AG (48.89%), Goldman Sachs (12.08%), and Morgan Stanley (11.74%). With assets under management (AUM) around $1.76 billion and an expense ratio of 0.95%, the fund maintains high concentration in these instruments, plus cash equivalents.
This structure amplifies daily silver price moves, making AGQ highly sensitive to short-term fluctuations in silver markets. The leveraged exposure explains the ETF's outsized declines during silver's recent correction, as compounding effects erode returns over multi-day downturns.
ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, AGQ dropped from a closing price of about $162 on March 9, 2026, to $111.44 on April 7, 2026, marking a decline of approximately -31%. The movement was volatile and trend-driven downward, with sharp intraday swings reflecting leveraged bets on silver futures amid broader commodity weakness.
For the past quarter, AGQ fell from around $182 on January 8, 2026, to the current level, representing a -39% change. Performance was range-bound early on but turned sharply lower after silver's January peak above $120/oz, exhibiting high volatility with multiple 10%+ daily moves due to the fund's 2x leverage.
What Drove AGQ Price in the Last 30 Days
AGQ's -31% decline mirrored silver's roughly -14% drop over the same period, doubled by leverage. Key catalysts included a strengthening U.S. dollar, which makes dollar-denominated commodities like silver less attractive to foreign buyers, and oil price surges fueling inflation fears that prompted expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Silver traded from around $85/oz on March 9 to near $72/oz recently, pressured by these macro headwinds.
The ETF's heavy exposure to silver futures and swaps directly transmitted this downside, with daily rebalancing amplifying losses during consistent declines. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran conflicts, added volatility but ultimately supported a risk-off shift away from industrial metals. Despite positive fund flows into commodity ETFs, redemptions accelerated as silver hit multi-week lows around $61/oz in late March.
What Drove AGQ Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader quarterly -39% drop in AGQ stemmed from silver's correction from January highs above $120/oz—driven initially by inflation hedging and safe-haven demand—to current levels near $72/oz. AGQ peaked above $430/share in late January before plunging, as its 2x leverage magnified the roughly -20% silver retreat.
Macroeconomic pressures dominated: surging oil prices stoked inflation worries, bolstering the dollar and Treasury yields while curbing rate cut hopes. Industrial demand for silver in solar and electronics provided some floor, but was overwhelmed by monetary tightening signals. Institutional flows into AGQ rose year-over-year, yet could not counter the structural decay from prolonged volatility and negative compounding in a leveraged vehicle.
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AGQ ETF Outlook: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors in AGQ should monitor silver futures prices, as the ETF's performance hinges on daily subindex moves. Key factors include U.S. dollar strength, Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, and inflation data, particularly CPI (Consumer Price Index) releases. Industrial silver demand from green energy sectors like solar panels remains a support, alongside any shifts in geopolitical risks affecting commodities. Oil prices and global growth indicators could influence sentiment, while fund flows and AUM changes signal institutional positioning. Volatility from leverage warrants caution for long-term holds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
AGQ's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGQ moved out of oversold territory on June 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 31 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where AGQ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGQ advanced for three days, in of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
AGQ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 20, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AGQ as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AGQ turned negative on May 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
AGQ moved below its 50-day moving average on May 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AGQ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for AGQ moved below the 200-day moving average on May 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGQ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for AGQ entered a downward trend on June 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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