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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Dec 12, 2018

Possible Double-Top for American Homes 4 Rent After Double-Bottom

Real Estate Investment Trust American Homes 4 Rent (NYSE: AMH) has a very interesting looking chart at this point in time. The stock looks like it put in a double-bottom down in the $19.50 area. The stock dropped down there in early November then bounced up to the $20.75 area. It then dropped back down to the $19.50 area and rallied once again. When it broke above the $20.75 area it was confirmation of the double-bottom pattern. Unfortunately we could also be looking at a double-top pattern.

The way the stock stalled in the $21.40 area in late October catches your attention and now it has bounced back up to the area again and stalled there on Friday. We also see that the stochastic readings are in overbought territory and made a bearish crossover on Friday.

The company’s fundamental indicators are average at best and that isn’t going to help the company break above resistance. The earnings have been stagnant over the last three years. The return on equity is only 1.7% and the profit margin is only 8%.

One area where the fundamental indicator is above average is in the sales growth. The company has averaged sales growth of 20% per year over the last three years and they were up 13% in the most recent quarter.

The sentiment toward American Homes 4 Rent could also be a problem as investors and analysts appear to be skewed to the optimistic side. The short interest ratio is a paltry 1.36 and nine out of 15 analysts rate the stock as a “buy”.

Related Ticker: AMH

Momentum Indicator for AMH turns positive, indicating new upward trend

AMH saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on March 20, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 96 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 96 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMH just turned positive on March 18, 2025. Looking at past instances where AMH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AMH moved above its 50-day moving average on March 14, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AMH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 03, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMH advanced for three days, in of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 273 cases where AMH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for AMH moved out of overbought territory on April 01, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AMH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 27, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.909) is normal, around the industry mean (1.987). P/E Ratio (35.980) is within average values for comparable stocks, (62.654). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (7.058). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.070) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (8.110) is also within normal values, averaging (7.141).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are PROLOGIS (NYSE:PLD), American Tower Corp (NYSE:AMT), Simon Property Group (NYSE:SPG), Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY), Rithm Capital Corp (NYSE:RITM), Tanger (NYSE:SKT), Innovative Industrial Properties (NYSE:IIPR).

Industry description

A real estate investment trust (REIT) is a company any that owns, and in most cases, operates, income-producing real estate – ranging from office and apartment buildings to warehouses, hospitals, shopping centers, hotels and timberlands. Some REITs are involved in financing real estate. Equity REITs invest in and own properties, while mortgage REITs own and invest in property mortgages. REITs are required by law to pay out at least 90% of their annual taxable income (excluding capital gains) to shareholders in the form of dividends. Some REITs could be more cyclical than others; for example, when an economy is undergoing a recession, hotel REITs could be more vulnerable, compared to say healthcare REIT given that healthcare needs are less likely to depend on economic cycles. American Tower Corporation, Prologis, Inc. and Crown Castle International Corp are some of the biggest REIT companies in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Real Estate Investment Trusts Industry is 5.41B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 51.9K to 243.79B. COFRF holds the highest valuation in this group at 243.79B. The lowest valued company is PDNLB at 51.9K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Investment Trusts Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -2%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7%. HHDS experienced the highest price growth at 237%, while MRVGF experienced the biggest fall at -30%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Investment Trusts Industry was 5%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -22% and the average quarterly volume growth was 19%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 58
SMR Rating: 80
Profit Risk Rating: 83
Seasonality Score: 0 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an operator of residential homes

Industry RealEstateInvestmentTrusts

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Real Estate Investment Trusts
Address
280 Pilot Road
Phone
+1 805 413-5300
Employees
1725
Web
https://www.amh.com