AMTX stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Aemetis Inc is an renewable fuel and biochemicals company focused on the production of renewable fuels and chemicals through the acquisition, development and commercialization of technologies that replace traditional petroleum-based products through the conversion of first-generation ethanol and biodiesel plants into biorefineries... Show more
Aemetis (AMTX) Stock Analysis: Clean-Fuel Tax Credits Turn the Business Profitable
Key Takeaways
- Aemetis shares have held roughly flat over the trailing 30 days, trading near $1.73 despite pronounced intraday volatility.
- The company swung to third-quarter net income of $5.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million, versus a loss in the prior-year period.
- Revenue rose 49% year over year to $88.2 million, driven by Section 45Z clean-fuel production tax credits and growing dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) volumes.
- A U.S. Department of Energy update to the 45ZCF-GREET model lifted the dairy RNG credit value from roughly $15 to about $62 per MMBtu.
- Tight liquidity, with $3.4 million in cash at quarter end, and elevated interest expense remain the primary risks investors are watching.
- You can review additional detail on Aemetis Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast across dedicated pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading strategies are positioning across the market.
Current Market Snapshot
Aemetis, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) is a small-cap renewable fuels name whose shares have traded near $1.73, essentially flat over the trailing 30 days after beginning the period near $1.75. That muted net move masks substantial day-to-day swings: the stock slid to intraday lows near $1.11 in early November before surging roughly 38% in a single session following third-quarter results. The volatility reflects a market that is weighing a clear operational and financial inflection against a still-constrained balance sheet.
Aemetis (AMTX) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Cupertino, California, Aemetis is a diversified renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company organized around three operating segments. Its California Ethanol business runs a roughly 65-million-gallon-per-year facility in Keyes that also produces animal feed and corn oil. Its Dairy RNG segment captures methane from a growing network of 14 anaerobic digesters serving 17 dairies, transporting biogas through a 36-mile pipeline for upgrading into renewable natural gas. Its India Biodiesel segment operates a more than 80-million-gallon-per-year plant in Kakinada.
A defining feature of the business model is its ability to monetize each unit of fuel alongside multiple environmental attributes, including California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits, federal D3 renewable identification numbers (RINs), and Section 45Z production tax credits. This stacked-revenue approach, combined with development work on sustainable aviation fuel and carbon sequestration, is central to why investors follow the stock.
Recent Developments Driving AMTX
The dominant catalyst came from third-quarter results reported in early November. Aemetis posted revenue of $88.2 million, up 49% year over year, net income of $5.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million. Section 45Z production tax credits contributed $24.7 million, including an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up triggered by the Department of Energy's September 8 update to the 45ZCF-GREET carbon-intensity model, which materially raised the credit value of dairy RNG.
Operationally, RNG sales volume grew 39% to 158,200 MMBtu, and two new digesters began operating in October, expanding the network to 14 units. The company also advanced its mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) project at Keyes, expected to add roughly $32 million in annual cash flow by reducing natural gas use, though management now expects most of that benefit in the second half of 2027. In India, biodiesel sales rebounded to $7.3 million as deliveries resumed under a new tender, and the company is pursuing European export approvals and preparing documentation for a potential minority IPO of its Universal Biofuels subsidiary.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page curates a selection of AI-powered trading bots from a broader platform offering hundreds of automated strategies that trade thousands of tickers. Only top-performing and most relevant bots are featured in this section, allowing users to compare approaches that vary by strategy, timeframe, and performance metrics. For investors tracking volatile small-cap names like Aemetis, reviewing how quantitative models are responding to policy and earnings catalysts can add a useful, data-driven perspective to fundamental analysis.
2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, the most important drivers include completion and commissioning of the MVR system, the pace of dairy digester financing and construction, and the durability of Section 45Z credit values following the federal model update. Policy stability and the trajectory of LCFS credit prices will directly influence revenue, while California's move toward year-round E15 in 2027 could support ethanol demand.
On the risk side, investors are likely to monitor the company's thin cash position, its substantial debt and interest expense, and progress on multi-track financing, including the potential Universal Biofuels IPO and long-term financing for the Keyes plant. Commodity costs, rail logistics, and seasonal RNG output also remain variables that could shape near-term results.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Momentum Indicator for AMTX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
AMTX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 71 of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AMTX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 37 of 47 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 55 of 70 cases where AMTX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMTX just turned positive on November 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where AMTX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Following a +50.43% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMTX advanced for three days, in 187 of 232 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
AMTX moved below its 50-day moving average on November 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AMTX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMTX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
AMTX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for AMTX entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AMTX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-0.363) is normal, around the industry mean (2.284). P/E Ratio (-1.884) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-17.137). AMTX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (19.780) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.548). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.039) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.555) is also within normal values, averaging (48.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AMTX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of renewable chemicals and fuels using patented microbes and processes
Industry ChemicalsSpecialty