Anglogold Ashanti PLC is one of the gold miners... Show more
AngloGold Ashanti's upcoming Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings, due February 20, 2026, cap a transformative year marked by the Sukari mine acquisition and gold prices soaring past $5,000 per ounce. This report will validate progress toward 9-21% production growth guidance amid cost discipline. For investors, it offers insights into free cash flow potential—already at record levels YTD—and dividend sustainability, with $927 million declared through nine months. In a gold bull market fueled by geopolitical tensions and inflation hedges, AngloGold Ashanti's performance underscores its positioning across Africa, Australia, and the Americas, influencing sector peers and commodity allocations.
Wall Street anticipates robust Q4 results, with consensus EPS at $1.94 on $2.99 billion in revenue, reflecting 118% and 73% growth from Q4 2024's $0.89 EPS and $1.75 billion sales, respectively. Five analysts back the EPS view, while three support revenue, with full-year 2025 pegged at $5.52 EPS and $9.83 billion revenue. Company guidance holds steady: 2.9-3.225 million ounces produced at total cash costs of $1,125-$1,225/oz and AISC of $1,580-$1,705/oz, with capex at $1.62-$1.77 billion. Q3 delivered 768,000 ounces (up 17% YoY), $1.32 EPS (met estimates), and $2.37 billion revenue, though slightly below forecasts; free cash flow hit $920 million. Historically, shares react to production beats and cost control, with Q3 driving gains despite minor misses.
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Heading into earnings, sentiment leans bullish, with AU shares up over 260% YTD on gold's rally and strong Q3 cash flows, outperforming the gold mining sector. Zacks ranks AU #1 (Strong Buy), buoyed by upward EPS revisions. Risks include production shortfalls at key assets like Sukari or Obuasi, cost inflation beyond guidance, or gold price pullbacks. Historically, beats on output and free cash flow spark 5-10% pops, while misses temper gains amid broader tailwinds.
Post-earnings, focus shifts to full-year attainment and 2026 guidance, mirroring 2025's 2.9-3.225 million ounces at steady costs, signaling sustained mid-tier producer status. Investors should track Q4 production weighting, especially Sukari's ramp-up toward 500,000 ounces annually, alongside Obuasi and Kibali outputs. Cost metrics remain pivotal: monitor total cash costs near $1,125-$1,225/oz amid ~5% inflation and FX volatility (ZAR18/$ assumed). Free cash flow trajectory—$1.86 billion YTD—underpins dividends (50% payout policy) and debt reduction, with liquidity at ~$3.9 billion. Gold prices above $5,000 bolster margins but expose to corrections; watch Brent oil ($75/bbl) and currencies for input impacts. Broader catalysts include exploration updates in Colombia and North America, M&A post-Sukari, and sector dynamics like labor stability in Africa. Balanced execution could reinforce AngloGold Ashanti's portfolio resilience amid commodity cycles.
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for AU moved out of overbought territory on March 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 44 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AU as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AU turned negative on March 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AU declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
AU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AU advanced for three days, in of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 261 cases where AU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.649) is normal, around the industry mean (23.122). P/E Ratio (20.528) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.796). AU's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.237). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.438) is also within normal values, averaging (110.943).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a gold mining and exploration company
Industry PreciousMetals