HGTXU Hugoton Royalty Trust Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

HGTXU in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on February 14, 2025

HGTXU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 14, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 47 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 58 cases where HGTXU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 20, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HGTXU as a result. In of 127 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HGTXU turned negative on February 19, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 76 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 76 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

HGTXU moved below its 50-day moving average on February 19, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for HGTXU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 11, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HGTXU declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for HGTXU entered a downward trend on February 21, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HGTXU's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HGTXU advanced for three days, in of 240 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.638) is normal, around the industry mean (4.514). P/E Ratio (1.181) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.693). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.890). HGTXU's Dividend Yield (0.876) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.085). P/S Ratio (1.066) is also within normal values, averaging (159.568).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HGTXU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HGTXU’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.