HLMN stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Hillman Solutions Corp is a provider of hardware-related products and related merchandising services to retail markets in North America... Show more
Why Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Stock Is Up +19.6% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Hillman Solutions (HLMN) shares rebounded roughly 19.6% over the trailing 30 days, climbing from about $7.04 to near $8.42.
- The recovery followed a third-quarter 2026 report in which adjusted EPS of $0.22 beat consensus estimates by 6.1% and adjusted EBITDA of $90.2 million exceeded expectations.
- Net sales reached a record $457.5 million, up 7.7% year over year, led by 19.2% growth in the high-margin Robotics and Digital Solutions segment.
- The completed Kanebridge acquisition expanded Hillman's presence in industrial fastener master distribution and the Pro channel.
- Management narrowed full-year net sales guidance to $1.66–$1.68 billion while reaffirming adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow targets.
- Despite the recent bounce, the stock remains below its early-August level near $9.20, reflecting a volatile quarter-over-quarter trend.
- For additional detail on valuation, upcoming results, and analyst expectations, explore Hillman's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading strategies are approaching the market.
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Company Overview and Market Position
Hillman Solutions Corp., founded in 1964 and headquartered in Cincinnati, is a leading North American provider of hardware and related products. The company serves retail, professional (Pro) distribution, and industrial MRO customers, offering a portfolio of more than 150,000 stock-keeping units across fasteners, builder's hardware, project gear and supplies, and key and engraving services. Its operating segments are Hardware and Protective Solutions, Robotics and Digital Solutions (home and auto key duplication and engraving), and Canada.
Hillman differentiates itself through a direct-to-store distribution model, a field sales and service team of more than 1,200 associates, and long-standing relationships with major home improvement, hardware, and farm-and-fleet retailers. Investors follow the stock for its exposure to resilient repair, maintenance, and remodeling demand, its expanding Pro channel, and its high-margin robotic key-duplication business.
Hillman Solutions (HLMN) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, HLMN climbed approximately 19.6%, moving from a closing level near $7.04 to roughly $8.42. The gain marked a sharp reversal after the stock slid toward the $6.94 area in early October, near its 52-week low.
On a broader three-month basis, the picture is more mixed. From an early-August level near $9.22, the stock remains down roughly 9%, even after the recent rebound. The quarterly path was non-linear: a steady decline through September and early October, followed by a pronounced recovery driven by third-quarter results and renewed sentiment around Hillman's growth initiatives.
What Drove HLMN Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The recent advance was anchored by Hillman's third-quarter 2026 results. The company reported record net sales of $457.5 million, a 7.7% year-over-year increase, while adjusted EPS of $0.22 came in about 6% above consensus and adjusted EBITDA of $90.2 million exceeded analyst expectations at a 19.7% margin. The Robotics and Digital Solutions segment was a standout, growing 19.2%.
The completion of the $315 million Kanebridge acquisition, a leading master distributor of industrial fasteners, also supported the narrative of expanding into the Pro and industrial channels. Hillman repurchased roughly 0.6 million shares during the quarter at an average price near $7.75. These positives were partly offset by a modest top-line miss, with revenue slightly below consensus, and a narrowed full-year net sales guidance range of $1.66–$1.68 billion.
What Drove HLMN Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The multi-month trend reflects a company navigating a soft housing and remodeling backdrop while repositioning its portfolio. Earlier in 2026, a mixed first quarter weighed on sentiment, and the stock drifted lower as investors digested weather-related headwinds and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, including tariff concerns.
The second half of the quarter brought a shift in tone. A stronger second-quarter report, raised guidance, a refinancing of credit facilities, and acquisitions including Campbell Chain and Fittings and Delaney Hardware set the stage for recovery. Hillman's March 2026 Investor Day also laid out a blueprint targeting $2.5 billion in net sales by 2030, reinforcing a longer-term growth story that has helped underpin the recent share-price rebound.
Trending AI Robots
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HLMN Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, investors are likely to focus on fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, along with any update to 2027 guidance. The integration of Kanebridge and earlier acquisitions such as Campbell Chain and Fittings and Delaney Hardware will be a key execution test, as will continued rollout of the MinuteKey 3.5 platform in Robotics and Digital Solutions.
Macroeconomic factors remain important, including housing turnover, existing-home sales, interest rates, and potential tariff and steel-cost pressures. Balance-sheet metrics also warrant attention: net leverage rose to 3.4x following the Kanebridge transaction, making deleveraging a watch item. Progress on Pro channel penetration and progress toward the company's long-term sales targets will help determine whether the recent recovery can be sustained.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
HLMN in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for HLMN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HLMN as a result. In 51 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
HLMN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HLMN advanced for three days, in 187 of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 114 of 175 cases where HLMN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HLMN moved out of overbought territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 25 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 80%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 47 of 64 cases where HLMN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HLMN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
HLMN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HLMN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 54 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.321) is normal, around the industry mean (3.143). HLMN has a moderately high P/E Ratio (41.600) as compared to the industry average of (22.467). HLMN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.020). HLMN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.018). P/S Ratio (0.908) is also within normal values, averaging (2.217).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HLMN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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