HTBK Heritage Commerce Corp Forecast, Technical & Fundamental Analysis

HTBK's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for HTBK entered a downward trend on January 08, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 224 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 224 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day moving average for HTBK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 20, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HTBK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.765) is normal, around the industry mean (1.030). P/E Ratio (8.010) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.662). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.366). Dividend Yield (0.062) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.682) is also within normal values, averaging (2.921).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HTBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HTBK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock worse than average.