Moody’s, along with S&P Ratings, is a leading provider of credit ratings on fixed-income securities... Show more
Moody's Corporation, a leader in credit ratings, research, and analytics, capped off 2025 with exceptional Q4 results amid robust global issuance and demand for decision-grade data. This earnings report underscores the resilience of its dual-segment model—Moody's Investors Service (MIS) and Moody's Analytics (MA)—in a year marked by AI-driven infrastructure financing and private credit expansion. For investors, these figures highlight Moody's ability to capitalize on macroeconomic tailwinds like elevated M&A and leveraged loans, while expanding recurring revenues. With full-year adjusted operating margins expanding 300 basis points to 51.1%, the company demonstrated operational leverage, making this a pivotal update for assessing sustained growth in risk assessment services.
Moody's Q4 2025 results exceeded Wall Street forecasts across key metrics. Revenue totaled $1.9 billion, a 13% increase from the prior year and above the $1.87 billion consensus, with favorable FX adding 2 points. MIS revenue rose 17% to $946 million, propelled by strong investment-grade issuance tied to AI data centers and infrastructure. MA revenue increased 9% to $943 million, or 6% organic constant-currency, with annual recurring revenue (ARR) at $3.5 billion, up 8%. Adjusted diluted EPS hit $3.64, beating the $3.45 estimate by $0.19 and up 39% YoY, aided by margin expansion to 48.7% and a lower effective tax rate. Full-year revenue reached $7.7 billion (up 9%), with adjusted EPS of $14.94 (up 20%). All major segments outperformed, with no notable misses.
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Moody's shares jumped more than 6% to close at $450.76 on February 18, 2026, following the pre-market earnings release, with after-hours gains extending the rally. The positive response stemmed from the earnings beat—EPS surprise of 5.5% and revenue topping estimates by 1.6%—coupled with robust full-year records and optimistic 2026 guidance. Investors interpreted the results as validation of sustained demand in ratings and analytics amid economic uncertainty, boosting sentiment. Trading volume spiked, signaling broad approval, though some noted the stock's premium valuation tempers further upside expectations.
Moody's provided a constructive 2026 outlook, forecasting high-single-digit revenue growth for the company, with MIS also in that range on low-single-digit issuance increases and MA at mid-single-digit (high-single-digit organic). Adjusted operating margins are projected at 52-53% overall, with MIS near 65% and MA 34-35%; adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $16.40-$17.00 implies double-digit growth. Free cash flow is expected at $2.8-$3.0 billion, supporting ~$2 billion in share repurchases. Assumptions include U.S. GDP growth of 1.5-2.5%, global defaults below 3%, and moderate M&A-driven issuance (40-45% growth in debt-funded deals).
Investors should track MIS issuance trends, particularly in public finance and leveraged loans, as refinancing walls loom at 6% YoY growth. For MA, monitor ARR expansion amid 94% retention and GenAI adoption (97% retention). Broader risks include widening high-yield spreads to 470 bps, policy rate shifts, and geopolitical tensions. Cost discipline remains key, with op-ex up mid-single-digits on investments. Upcoming catalysts include Q1 results and first-time mandates (750-850 targeted). Balanced global growth and neutral FX underpin the view, though trade policies could pressure issuance volumes.
The RSI Indicator for MCO moved out of oversold territory on February 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MCO advanced for three days, in of 368 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MCO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MCO as a result. In of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MCO turned negative on March 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for MCO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for MCO moved below the 200-day moving average on March 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MCO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for MCO entered a downward trend on February 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MCO's P/B Ratio (18.868) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (5.395). P/E Ratio (31.456) is within average values for comparable stocks, (28.739). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.913) is also within normal values, averaging (2.974). MCO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.009) as compared to the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (10.020) is also within normal values, averaging (8.941).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of credit rating, research and risk analysis covering debt instruments services
Industry FinancialPublishingServices