MEDP stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Medpace is a late-stage contract research organization that provides full-service drug-development and clinical trial services to small and midsize biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device firms... Show more
Why Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Stock Is Up +16.8% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- MEDP shares surged approximately 16.8% in the last 30 days, rising from around $460 to $537.73, as the stock staged a sharp recovery from mid-June lows.
- The rally was fueled by analyst target increases from Mizuho, Jefferies, and Baird — even as some firms downgraded ratings on valuation grounds — signaling confidence in the company's long-term fundamentals.
- Strong institutional accumulation, with multiple large asset managers significantly boosting their MEDP positions, provided additional upward momentum.
- Investor anticipation ahead of Medpace's Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for July 22, contributed to speculative buying pressure.
- Over the broader quarter, the stock weathered a dramatic post-Q1-earnings sell-off and has since recovered meaningfully, though concerns around backlog cancellations and sub-1.0x book-to-bill ratios persist.
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Company Overview and Market Position
Medpace Holdings, Inc. is a scientifically-driven, global, full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO) that provides Phase I-IV clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device industries. Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, the company employs approximately 6,300 people across 46 countries as of March 31, 2026. Medpace's core service offerings include clinical pharmacology, regulatory affairs consulting, project management, central laboratory services, imaging, data management and biostatistics, pharmacovigilance, and medical writing.
The company's client mix is heavily weighted toward small and mid-sized biopharma firms, with small biopharma accounting for roughly 82% of fiscal 2025 revenues. Medpace has particular therapeutic depth in oncology, metabolic disease, cardiology, central nervous system, and anti-infective areas — with metabolic programs, including GLP-1-related trials, recently overtaking oncology as the largest disclosed therapeutic area by revenue. This differentiated positioning in high-demand therapeutic categories and its full-service, centralized operating model have made MEDP a closely followed name among healthcare investors.
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 calendar days, MEDP delivered a pronounced upward move. Using adjusted closing prices, the stock rose from $460.20 on June 18, 2026 — the nearest trading session to 30 days prior — to $537.73 on July 17, 2026, the latest available trading day. That represents a gain of approximately 16.8% in roughly one month. The rally was not linear; the stock consolidated between $455 and $475 through mid-June before breaking out decisively above $510 on June 24, then continuing to climb through mid-July.
Looking at the broader quarter, the picture is more complex. In late April 2026, MEDP shares traded near $520 before Q1 earnings triggered a dramatic single-day sell-off of roughly 23%, sending the stock to an intra-quarter low around $373. Since that post-earnings trough, the stock has rebounded by more than 40%, recapturing nearly all the value lost in the April rout. Despite the recovery, MEDP's quarter-to-date performance from mid-April remains more modest at under 2%, underscoring just how concentrated the recent 30-day advance has been within the larger recovery arc.
What Drove MEDP Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
Several reinforcing catalysts powered MEDP's 30-day surge. On July 7, Jefferies Financial Group downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold citing valuation concerns — yet simultaneously raised its price target to $515 from $490, a nuanced signal that acknowledged the stock's strong underlying business while flagging stretched multiples. The following day, Baird also downgraded MEDP to Neutral from Outperform but lifted its target to $547 from $477, similarly citing near-term uncertainty rather than fundamental deterioration. Then, on July 13, Mizuho raised its price objective to $586 from $495 while maintaining an Outperform rating, reinforcing the bullish case.
Behind the analyst moves, robust institutional buying activity provided tangible support. Recent SEC filings revealed that AQR Capital Management boosted its MEDP position by 65.1%, Arrowstreet Capital by 205.8%, Franklin Resources by 158.6%, and Goldman Sachs by 92.4% — all in recent quarters. Fifth Third Bancorp alone increased its stake by over 1,800% in Q1 2026. With institutional ownership at approximately 78%, this wave of accumulation helped absorb selling pressure and sustain the uptrend.
Additionally, anticipation surrounding Medpace's upcoming Q2 2026 earnings report on July 22 likely contributed to pre-earnings positioning. Investors appeared willing to look past Q1's elevated cancellation rates and the 0.88x book-to-bill ratio, focusing instead on the company's $2.93 billion backlog, strong metabolic and GLP-1 trial demand, and consistent revenue growth above 25% year-over-year.
What Drove MEDP Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
MEDP's quarterly journey was defined by a sharp correction followed by a prolonged recovery. On April 22, the company reported Q1 2026 results that beat consensus estimates handily — EPS of $4.28 versus the $3.74 expected, and revenue of $706.6 million versus the $697.8 million forecast. Despite the headline beat, the stock cratered roughly 23% in a single session after management disclosed that cancellations had reached their highest level in over a year, with oncology and cardiovascular programs driving the attrition. A net book-to-bill ratio of 0.88x — meaning new awards did not fully replenish quarterly revenue — further rattled investor confidence.
From the post-earnings low near $373, the recovery was gradual at first, then accelerated in late June. Key stabilizers included management's reaffirmed full-year guidance, the durability of metabolic and GLP-1 trial revenues (which carry lower historical cancellation rates), and a growing pre-backlog pipeline. CEO August Troendle characterized the GLP-1 space as "a pretty safe therapeutic area" during the earnings call, and the company's $1.94 billion in backlog expected to convert over the next twelve months provided revenue visibility that helped restore sentiment. By mid-July, the stock had reclaimed levels last seen before the April sell-off.
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MEDP Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
The most immediate catalyst for MEDP is the Q2 2026 earnings release on July 22, followed by the conference call on July 23. Analysts expect EPS of approximately $3.98 on revenue near $690.7 million. Investors will scrutinize several metrics: whether the net book-to-bill ratio improves above 1.0x, the trajectory of cancellation rates across oncology and cardiovascular programs, and any updates to full-year guidance.
Beyond earnings, key factors include the pace of pre-backlog conversion into active awards, demand trends in metabolic and GLP-1 clinical programs, and the broader biotech funding environment — which directly affects Medpace's small-biopharma client base. Regulatory developments affecting drug development timelines, reimbursement policies for obesity and metabolic therapies, and competitive dynamics among CRO peers such as IQV and CRL also merit close attention. With the stock trading well above the average analyst price target of approximately $469.50, investors should weigh the company's strong execution against valuation risk and the possibility that cancellations or softer request-for-proposal volumes could pressure growth in coming quarters.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
MEDP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MEDP turned positive on July 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where MEDP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where MEDP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MEDP as a result. In of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MEDP advanced for three days, in of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 252 cases where MEDP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MEDP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MEDP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MEDP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (38.610) is normal, around the industry mean (13.307). P/E Ratio (35.329) is within average values for comparable stocks, (150.960). MEDP's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.697) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.685). MEDP has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.008). P/S Ratio (6.231) is also within normal values, averaging (8.160).
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General Information
a holding company
Industry MedicalSpecialties