MEDP stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Medpace is a late-stage contract research organization that provides full-service drug-development and clinical trial services to small and midsize biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device firms... Show more
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Stock Analysis: Resilient Bookings and a Shift Back to Oncology
Key Takeaways
- Medpace Holdings (MEDP) has traded roughly flat to modestly higher over the past 30 days, rising about 3% from its mid-September close.
- The stock has consolidated in the high-$500s to low-$600s range as investors weigh strong demand against ongoing booking and cancellation volatility.
- Second-quarter 2026 results showed 17.2% revenue growth, a record net-booking quarter, and a raised full-year guidance range.
- Management highlighted a therapeutic mix shifting back toward oncology after a period of outsized metabolic-driven growth.
- Third-quarter 2026 results are scheduled to be reported after the market close on October 21, 2026, a key near-term catalyst.
Current Market Snapshot
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) has traded in a relatively tight range in recent weeks, reflecting a market that is still digesting the company's strong second-quarter report alongside lingering questions about bookings durability and customer concentration. As of late October 2026, the stock was changing hands around $630, up roughly 3% from its mid-September close and well off its 52-week low near $373 while remaining below its 52-week high near $678.
The broader healthcare-services and contract research organization (CRO) sector has been supported by resilient clinical development spending, particularly from small and mid-sized biotech sponsors that rely on outsourcing. Medpace has benefited from this demand, but its shares remain sensitive to quarterly booking and cancellation data, which have swung meaningfully over the past year.
Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Business Overview and Competitive Position
Medpace is a scientifically driven, full-service clinical contract research organization providing Phase I–IV clinical development services to the biotechnology, pharmaceutical, and medical device industries. Headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio, the company employs approximately 6,300 people across 46 countries as of March 31, 2026, with operations concentrated in North America, Europe, and Asia.
The company's services span development plan design, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance, and post-marketing support, along with bioanalytical laboratory, imaging, and electrocardiography reading capabilities. Medpace's competitive positioning rests on its deep therapeutic expertise across oncology, cardiology, metabolic disease, endocrinology, central nervous system, and antiviral/anti-infective areas, and on its focus on small and mid-sized biopharma clients that typically lack in-house clinical trial infrastructure. Investors follow the stock closely because its backlog and net new business awards provide forward visibility into revenue growth.
Recent Developments Driving MEDP
Medpace reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 22, 2026, with revenue of $707.3 million, up 17.2% year over year. EBITDA rose 17.6% to $153.4 million, net income increased 34.5% to $121.4 million, and diluted earnings per share reached $4.25 versus $3.10 in the prior-year period. Net new business awards entering backlog grew 28.2% to $795.7 million, producing a net book-to-bill ratio of 1.13 and record net bookings. Ending backlog was approximately $3 billion.
Management described the business environment as strong and said cancellations were "well-behaved" in the quarter, an improvement after cancellations reached their highest level in over a year during the first quarter. The company also raised its full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $2.805 billion to $2.885 billion, EBITDA of $618 million to $642 million, net income of $494 million to $514 million, and diluted EPS of $17.25 to $17.95.
A notable development was a shift in the therapeutic mix. After several quarters in which metabolic programs—including GLP-1-related obesity work—drove much of the growth among top customers, oncology rebounded to represent more than half of bookings and award notifications in the second quarter. Management expects the mix to move back toward historical averages, with oncology regaining a larger share.
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2026 Outlook and What Investors Should Watch
Looking ahead, the key near-term catalyst is Medpace's third-quarter 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close on October 21, 2026, followed by a conference call. Investors will focus on revenue and EPS versus guidance, net new business awards, the book-to-bill ratio, and any update to full-year 2026 guidance.
Booking and cancellation trends remain central to the story, since cancellations can be volatile and difficult to predict. Customer concentration is another area of focus, with the top five and top ten customers representing roughly 31% and 40% of trailing twelve-month revenue, respectively. The ongoing shift in therapeutic mix back toward oncology, the pace of backlog conversion, and biotech funding conditions across the small and mid-cap ecosystem will also shape sentiment. Competitive dynamics among larger CROs such as IQV and FTRE, as well as any impact from biopharma M&A on outsourced trial activity, are worth monitoring.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
MEDP's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MEDP turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where MEDP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 20, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MEDP as a result. In 77 of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
MEDP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.49% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MEDP advanced for three days, in 237 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 192 of 255 cases where MEDP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MEDP moved out of overbought territory on October 29, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 44 of 66 cases where MEDP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MEDP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
MEDP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MEDP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 81 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (41.697) is normal, around the industry mean (65.876). P/E Ratio (37.357) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.542). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.929) is also within normal values, averaging (3.473). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.002) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.390) is also within normal values, averaging (9.775).
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General Information
a holding company
Industry MedicalSpecialties