MOMO stock forecast, quote, news & analysis

Key Takeaways

• Hello Group (MOMO) shares fell roughly 12.8% over the last 30 days, declining from $5.72 to $4.99 as of the most recent close.
• The slide followed second-quarter 2026 results that beat on earnings but included weaker revenue guidance, signaling continued domestic pressure.
• Domestic revenue fell 17% year over year amid tax scrutiny on agencies and broadcasters plus soft spending among high-value live-streaming users.
• Overseas revenue rose 52% year over year and reached 27% of total revenue, reflecting a growing shift toward the MENA region and international dating apps.
• Analysts tempered expectations, with StoneX lowering its price target to $8 from $10 while maintaining a Buy rating.

Hello Group (MOMO) Company Overview and Market Position

Hello Group, formerly Momo Inc., is a leading player in Asia's online social networking space. The company operates the Momo mobile app, a location-based social and entertainment platform, and Tantan, a social and dating application acquired in 2018. Since 2019 it has expanded its portfolio through internal incubation and strategic acquisitions, adding apps such as Soulchill, Hertz, and happn that target niche markets and specific demographics both in China and abroad.

The business generates most of its revenue from value-added services, including virtual gifts across audio, video, and text-based scenarios and membership subscriptions. Investors follow MOMO for its cash-generating domestic platforms, its expanding overseas operations, and its ongoing integration of AI-powered features across its apps.

Hello Group (MOMO) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter

Over the last 30 days, Hello Group's ADS has declined about 12.8%, falling from a closing price of $5.72 to $4.99. The move accelerated after the company reported second-quarter results, with shares trending lower through early-to-mid September before stabilizing near the $4.90–$5.00 range.

Measured over the last quarter, the decline is roughly 11%, from about $5.60 in late June to $4.99. The stock had traded near $6.20 in mid-July before giving back those gains as guidance and macro concerns weighed on sentiment.

What Drove MOMO Stock Price in the Last 30 Days

The main catalyst was the company's second-quarter 2026 report, released in early September. Hello Group posted adjusted non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS of $0.26, ahead of the roughly $0.22 consensus, and non-GAAP net income of RMB273.9 million versus a net loss a year earlier. However, total revenue declined 5% year over year to RMB2.49 billion, and the company guided third-quarter revenue to RMB2.4 billion to RMB2.5 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 9.4% to 5.7%.

Investors focused on the weaker forward outlook. Domestic revenue fell 17% year over year, pressured by continued tax scrutiny affecting Momo agencies and broadcasters and by reduced spending among the platform's highest-value live-streaming users. Management noted that the weakness was concentrated in spending behavior rather than user churn, but the softer macro environment still weighed on sentiment.

Analyst actions added to the pressure, with StoneX cutting its price target to $8 from $10 while keeping a Buy rating, citing a weaker second-half outlook. Broader caution around Chinese ADRs and consumer spending also contributed to the decline.

What Drove MOMO Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter

The three-month trend reflects a longer-running narrative. Hello Group's domestic cash-cow business has been navigating a tighter tax and regulatory environment for broadcasters and agencies, while macro softness has reduced discretionary spending among top-tier users. At the same time, the company has been repositioning toward growth: overseas revenue rose 52% year over year in the second quarter and reached 27% of total revenue, driven by newer products in the Middle East and North Africa and by the consolidation of acquired dating apps.

The company has also been rolling out AI capabilities, including an AI chat assistant, AI-generated gifts, and features that help generate personalized icebreaker messages, aimed at improving engagement and monetization efficiency. These initiatives have not yet offset the domestic revenue decline, which is why the stock has trended lower over the quarter despite a year-over-year return to profitability.

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MOMO Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next

Looking ahead, investors should monitor several factors. The company's third-quarter results, expected around early December, will show whether the domestic revenue decline is stabilizing and whether overseas momentum continues. Management's full-year outlook, which now implies a mid-single-digit revenue decline, will serve as a key benchmark.

Other items to watch include the trajectory of high-value user spending on Momo, the impact of tax and regulatory developments on agencies and broadcasters, Tantan's user and paying-user trends following payment-channel changes, and the profitability of newer MENA products. Macroeconomic conditions in China and the pace of AI-feature adoption across the app portfolio will also shape sentiment. These factors are informational and do not constitute investment advice.

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