NatWest Group (NWG): Q1 2026 Earnings Show Strong Profitability and Confidence in Full-Year Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Operating profit rose to £2.0 billion in Q1 2026, up from the prior year period.
- Basic earnings per share (EPS) increased 15.5% year-over-year to 17.9 pence.
- Return on tangible equity (RoTE) stood at a strong 18.2%.
- Total income excluding notable items reached £4.2 billion.
- Group reaffirmed full-year guidance, pointing to the top end of its £17.2-17.6 billion income range excluding notable items.
- Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio improved to 14.3%, up about 30 basis points from Q4 2025.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As one of the U.K.'s largest banks, NatWest Group (NWG) serves millions of retail, commercial, and institutional customers. Its Q1 2026 earnings offer a clear view of performance in a stabilizing interest rate environment and competitive lending landscape. Investors like me pay close attention to these results for insights into net interest margin (NIM) trends—the spread between interest income and expenses—and deposit growth, which are critical indicators of strength amid higher rates. After a strong 2025 with record profits, these figures help assess whether growth in customer assets and cost management can hold up, impacting dividends and initiatives like wealth management expansion.
Reported Results
NatWest Group (NWG) posted total income excluding notable items of £4.2 billion for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, holding steady with prior periods thanks to stable net interest income and rising fees. Operating profit reached £2.0 billion, driven by better cost control—including over £100 million in quarterly savings—and a cost:income ratio (excluding litigation and conduct) of 46.5%, improved by 2.1 percentage points from a year ago.
Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders came in at £1.4 billion, lifting basic EPS to 17.9 pence, up 15.5% from 15.5 pence in Q1 2025. RoTE was 18.2%, highlighting effective capital deployment. Other highlights included customer loans rising £7.2 billion (excluding central items), deposits growing £3.1 billion, and assets under management and administration (AUMA) seeing £0.9 billion in net inflows despite market challenges. The CET1 ratio rose to 14.3%, bolstering options for capital returns.
These results demonstrated resilience against analyst expectations, such as around £4.31 billion in total income, especially on the profitability front, even if income edged below some forecasts.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
In early London trading after the May 1 release, NWG shares rose, as investors welcomed the profit beat, solid RoTE, and lifted full-year guidance. Overall sentiment feels positive, supported by the strong capital position and customer momentum, though some wariness persists around possible NIM pressure from rate shifts. Trading volume picked up as analysts revised their models based on this encouraging update.
One thing that stands out to me is how the capital generation of 65 basis points pre-distributions this quarter reinforces the bank's ability to support dividends and buybacks while maintaining regulatory buffers.
Discovering Opportunities with Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my own analysis of NWG and similar names, I rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for stock and ETF discovery. It lets me filter thousands of assets using technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals—customizing by industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and more. This streamlines finding trade ideas, breakouts, and opportunities far quicker than manual scans, making it a key part of my research process.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
From what I see, management’s confidence shines through with full-year 2026 total income excluding notable items now eyed at the upper end of the £17.2-17.6 billion range, reflecting momentum in retail banking, commercial lending, and wealth management.
Key areas to watch include net interest income, as deposit repricing and loan expansion play out against Bank of England rate uncertainties. Customer growth remains a bright spot, with 24,000 new startups added, aligning with targets for over 4% annual customer asset and liability (CAL) growth by 2028.
Cost savings efforts are on track for efficiency gains, while impairment charges merit vigilance amid economic risks. AUMA inflows in Private Banking & Wealth Management may pick up with market recovery. I also checked comparable banks using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge sector positioning.
U.K. banking competition and regulations will influence progress, with half-year results in July providing more detail.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
NWG sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
NWG saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on September 22, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NWG as a result. In 43 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
NWG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NWG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NWG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator for NWG entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.24% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NWG advanced for three days, in 241 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
NWG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 18 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.255) is normal, around the industry mean (1.323). P/E Ratio (9.293) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.509). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.468) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.051) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.182) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NWG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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