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Apr 19, 2024

Biotech and Pharma Titans ($AMGN, $PFE, $JNJ, $ATXS) Surge with Impressive Weekly Performance

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In the fast-paced realm of biotech and pharmaceuticals, a group of stocks, including giants like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), Astex Pharmaceuticals (ATXS), AnaptysBio (ANAB), and Zymeworks (ZYME), witnessed a noteworthy 8.55% surge in performance over the past week. However, a closer look at various indicators suggests caution, signaling a potential downturn.

1. Negative Outlook and Declining Trends

Fear & Greed Index

The group currently faces a Negative Outlook, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Tickeron, a market analysis platform, predicts a further decline exceeding 4.00% within the next month, with a 62% likelihood. Over the last month, advancing volumes outpaced declining volumes by a ratio of 1.46 to 1.

BollingerBands Indicator

Alarmingly, two stocks within this group confirmed the negative outlook using the BollingerBands indicator, with an average reliability of 72%.

2. Market Capitalization Rollercoaster

The average market capitalization across the group stands at 116 billion USD, ranging from a modest 171 million USD for ATXS to a colossal 381.3 billion USD for JNJ. Interestingly, JNJ experienced a significant market cap drop of $25.6 billion on August 26, 2023, and a staggering decrease of $85.2 billion on May 2, 2023.

3. Price Volatility: Highs and Lows

Weekly Price Movements

The average weekly price growth across the group was a notable 6.74%. For the same cohort, the average monthly and quarterly price growths were 13.14% and 18.65%, respectively. Remarkably, ATXS led the pack with a 36.15% price surge, while JNJ experienced the most significant fall at -1.91%.

Stock-Specific Highlights

  • Amgen (AMGN) stood out as a top weekly gainer on November 8, 2023, with a 6.02% jump.
  • Pfizer (PFE) faced challenges, being a top loser on September 12, 2023, with a decline of -5.14%.
  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) also experienced a weekly downturn on August 25, 2023, with a -5.13% fall.

4. Volume Dynamics

Volume Growth Metrics

The average weekly volume growth across the group was 3.4%, with monthly and quarterly growth rates soaring at 127.37% and 71.63%, respectively.

Record-Breaking Volumes

On December 16, 2023, several stocks within the group witnessed extraordinary volume spikes, with AnaptysBio and Astria Therapeutics experiencing daily growths of 319% and 531% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average, respectively. Zymeworks wasn't far behind, recording a remarkable 272% growth on August 4, 2023.

5. Stock-Specific Momentum Indicators

Amgen (AMGN)

AMGN has recently seen a positive shift in its Momentum Indicator, hinting at a potential upward trend. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor, analyzing 84 similar instances, suggests a 58% probability of a higher trajectory. The stock is currently trading between $333.97 resistance and $306.80 support lines.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Despite recent challenges, JNJ is showing signs of an upward trend, breaking its lower Bollinger Band on January 24, 2024. Historical data indicates a 60% likelihood of continued upward momentum. JNJ is currently trading between $160.27 support and $150.88 support lines.

Astex Pharmaceuticals (ATXS)

ATXS's Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turned positive on January 23, 2024. With a remarkable historical accuracy of 90%, the odds favor a continued upward trend. ATXS is currently trading between $14.33 resistance and $10.60 support lines.

In summary, while the recent overall performance of the biotech and pharmaceutical stock group has been impressive, caution is warranted. The negative outlook, declining trends in some stocks, and the unpredictability in market capitalization and volume indicate a complex landscape. Investors should scrutinize individual stock dynamics, considering momentum indicators, and be prepared for potential shifts in the coming weeks.

Related Ticker: AMGN, PEEAX, JNJ

Momentum Indicator for AMGN turns positive, indicating new upward trend

AMGN saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on April 26, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AMGN just turned positive on April 22, 2024. Looking at past instances where AMGN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AMGN advanced for three days, in of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AMGN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AMGN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 27, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for AMGN entered a downward trend on April 26, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: AMGN's P/B Ratio (24.331) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.632). P/E Ratio (22.661) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.974). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.526) is also within normal values, averaging (3.004). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.164) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.402) is also within normal values, averaging (3.643).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AMGN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE:LLY), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK), ABBVIE (NYSE:ABBV), AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:AZN), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN), Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (NYSE:BMY), Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ:GILD), Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB).

Industry description

The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Pharmaceuticals: Major Industry is 86.34B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 72.83K to 739.66B. LLY holds the highest valuation in this group at 739.66B. The lowest valued company is CRXTQ at 72.83K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Pharmaceuticals: Major Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 1%. CSPCY experienced the highest price growth at 15%, while OPHLF experienced the biggest fall at -9%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Pharmaceuticals: Major Industry was -1%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 17% and the average quarterly volume growth was -1%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 31
P/E Growth Rating: 54
Price Growth Rating: 63
SMR Rating: 64
Profit Risk Rating: 73
Seasonality Score: 11 (-100 ... +100)
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