Papa John’s (PZZA, $43.15) struggles, but shareholders remain optimistic
Papa John’s International fell short of analysts’ fourth quarter expectations, as same store sales declined by 8.1% in North America. Outside of North America, same-store sales saw smaller declines of 2.6%.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, Papa John’s rocked to a net loss of $13.8 million, or 44 cents per share, from net income of $28.5 million, or 81 cents per share, a year earlier. Net sales fell 20% to $374.0 million versus analyst expectations of $390.1 million. Adjusted earnings per share clocked-in at 15 cents versus an expected 17 cents.
It is alleged that sales suffered after the company’s founder and former CEO, John Schnatter, used a racial slur in a conference call.
Since then the company has been trying to improve its public image. It spent $2.2 million during the fourth quarter — and $5.8 million total during fiscal 2018 — on PR costs. In January, the Papa John’s Foundation gave a $500,000 grant to Bennett College, a struggling historically black college for women.
The company has also launched a new loyalty program that will help boost its sales through analysis of customer data. To encourage customers to join the program, the pizza chain was offering a variety of deals, including free cheese sticks when customers spent more than $12.
Papa John's is also diversifying its offerings with six new specialty pizzas, such as Ultimate Pepperoni and Zesty Italian Trio, as well as the Hot Honey and Chicken Waffles pizza, the winner of a Twitter poll it conducted.
In light of all these upgrades, the company is expecting earnings of $1.00 to $1.20 per share in fiscal 2019. Analysts are also expecting full-year earnings of $1.20 per share. The company also has plans to open 75-100 new stores during 2019.
PZZA in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on May 19, 2025
The 10-day moving average for PZZA crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 19, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
PZZA moved above its 50-day moving average on May 12, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PZZA advanced for three days, in of 297 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 230 cases where PZZA Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 16 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PZZA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
PZZA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (5.275). P/E Ratio (19.869) is within average values for comparable stocks, (42.556). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.357) is also within normal values, averaging (1.869). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.056) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.749) is also within normal values, averaging (8.616).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PZZA’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PZZA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of pizza delivery and restaurants
Industry Restaurants