Ross Stores (ROST) Q1 2026 Earnings Preview: What Analysts Expect and Key Metrics to Watch
Key Takeaways
- Ross Stores is set to report first quarter 2026 results after market close on May 21, 2026.
- Analysts project revenue growth of about 11% year-over-year to roughly $5.5 billion.
- Consensus EPS estimate stands near $1.66, up from $1.47 in the prior-year quarter.
- The company guided for total sales growth of 10% to 12% and EPS between $1.60 and $1.67.
- Investors will focus on comparable-store sales trends and new store openings during the quarter.
- Historical patterns show the stock often moves sharply on earnings beats or misses.
Why This Quarter Matters for Ross Stores
Ross Stores operates off-price retail stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd’s DISCOUNTS banners. Its first quarter typically captures post-holiday shopping and early spring demand. Strong results in recent quarters have reflected resilient consumer spending on value-oriented apparel and home goods. This earnings report will help investors gauge whether that momentum continues amid shifting economic conditions and potential tariff impacts on merchandise costs. I’m watching this closely because any signs of sustained strength here could influence how the shares trade in the coming months.
What the Numbers Are Expected to Show
Wall Street consensus calls for first quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $5.5 billion, representing roughly 11% growth from the year-ago period. The average EPS estimate is $1.66, an increase of about 13% from $1.47 earned in the first quarter of fiscal 2025. Ross Stores has guided for total sales to rise 10% to 12% and for earnings per share in the range of $1.60 to $1.67. The company plans to open 17 new stores during the quarter. Key metrics to watch include comparable-store sales performance and operating margin, which management has forecasted between 11.8% and 12.1%. When I checked this setup against broader retail trends, the growth profile still looks constructive.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into the report, investor sentiment appears cautiously optimistic given the company’s recent track record of solid sales growth. Traders often watch for any updates on tariff-related costs, which affected prior results. A beat on both revenue and EPS could support further upside in the shares, while any shortfall in comparable-store sales might trigger near-term volatility. From what I see, the market is pricing in a reasonably steady outcome rather than a dramatic surprise.
Using AI Tools to Refine the Analysis
As part of my regular research process, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare ROST against other retail names on technical patterns, fundamentals, and recent performance metrics. The tool makes it straightforward to scan for similar companies and see how this quarter’s expectations line up with broader sector trends. It has become a useful step for me when preparing for earnings like these, helping highlight any standout factors without needing to comb through dozens of screens manually.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following the earnings release, investors will focus on management’s updated outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026. Guidance on comparable-store sales trends and margin expectations will provide important clues about the balance of the year.
New store openings remain a growth driver, with the company continuing to expand its physical footprint. Any commentary on inventory levels and merchandise availability will help assess how well Ross Stores is positioned for the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
Broader retail spending patterns and potential changes in consumer behavior will also influence the stock. Cost pressures from tariffs or supply-chain issues could affect profitability and warrant close attention in future updates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Disclaimers and LimitationsContributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
ROST in -1.38% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 09, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ROST declined for three days, in 157 of 295 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ROST as a result. In 39 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ROST turned negative on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for ROST entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ROST advanced for three days, in 215 of 345 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ROST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ROST's P/B Ratio (11.236) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (28.669) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). ROST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.542) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. ROST's P/S Ratio (2.952) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
an operator of discount clothing chains & sells closeout merchandise
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail