SE stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Sea started as a gaming business, Garena, but in 2015 expanded into e-commerce... Show more
Why Sea Limited (SE) Stock Is Down -15% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Sea Limited (SE) shares declined roughly 15% over the past 30 days, falling from $112.09 on September 4 to $95.19 as of the October 2 close.
- The pullback erased much of the post-earnings rally that briefly lifted the stock above $131 in mid-August.
- An October 2 downgrade by DBS Bank, which cut its price target to $105 from $148, weighed on sentiment around Shopee's rising investment spending.
- Competition from Pinduoduo, TikTok Shop, and Lazada, plus insider share sales, added to near-term selling pressure.
- Sea's underlying business remains in growth mode, with second-quarter revenue up 48% year over year to $7.8 billion.
Sea Limited (SE) Company Overview and Market Position
Sea Limited is a Singapore-based digital technology company that operates three core businesses. Garena is its digital entertainment arm, best known for the mobile battle royale game Free Fire, which continues to draw more than 100 million average daily active users. Shopee is one of Southeast Asia's largest e-commerce platforms, with a growing presence in Brazil. SeaMoney (Monee) provides digital financial services, including consumer and SME lending, with a loan book that reached $11.1 billion as of June 30, 2026.
Investors follow SE closely because the company sits at the intersection of several high-growth themes across emerging markets: e-commerce adoption, mobile gaming, and digital financial inclusion. Its diversified, ecosystem-driven model creates cross-selling opportunities, while its scale in Southeast Asia gives it meaningful competitive advantages. At the same time, the stock remains sensitive to margin concerns, competitive dynamics, and the pace of reinvestment across all three segments.
Sea Limited (SE) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the past 30 days, Sea Limited shares declined approximately 15%, moving from an adjusted close of $112.09 on September 4, 2026, to $95.19 at the October 2, 2026 close. The decline was not uniform: the stock trended lower through much of September and early October, punctuated by sharper single-day drops as competitive and analyst-driven headlines circulated.
The quarterly picture shows a broader giveback. After reporting second-quarter results on August 11, 2026, the stock spiked from about $114 to an intraday peak near $131, but that momentum faded quickly. From that August peak, shares have fallen roughly 28%, and the stock now sits about 9% below its early-July levels. Sea remains well off its 52-week high of approximately $192.69, while holding above its 52-week low near $78.
What Drove SE Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
Several verified factors contributed to the recent decline. Most notably, on October 2, 2026, DBS Group Research downgraded Sea to "Hold" from "Buy" and cut its 12-month price target to $105 from $148. The firm cited concerns that Shopee's investments—including its quick-commerce push, its ShopeeVIP membership program, and spending on the Migoo AI app—could slow profit-margin growth into 2027. DBS also flagged Pinduoduo's expansion into Southeast Asia as a competitive threat to Shopee's gross merchandise value.
Broader e-commerce competition has been a persistent overhang, with TikTok Shop and Alibaba's Lazada remaining aggressive in key markets. Investor concerns about rising logistics and promotional spending, which lifted Shopee's cost of revenue, have compounded worries about near-term profitability even as revenue and gross merchandise value continue to grow.
Insider activity added to the cautious tone. SEC filings showed that Chief Operating Officer Gang Ye sold 40,000 Class A ordinary shares worth approximately $4.2 million under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, and other executives disclosed similar scheduled sales. While these transactions were plan-based rather than discretionary, they reinforced near-term selling pressure and investor wariness.
What Drove SE Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly trend reflects a familiar tension for Sea: strong top-line growth colliding with investor concerns about the cost of that growth. Second-quarter results, reported August 11, showed revenue of $7.8 billion, up 48% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA of $917 million, up 11%. Shopee's gross merchandise value grew 28% to $38.3 billion, and its ad revenue rose more than 70%. However, adjusted earnings per share of $0.86 missed consensus estimates, and sales and marketing expenses jumped 64.5% year over year.
That earnings-driven spike proved short-lived. As the quarter progressed, investors increasingly focused on whether Shopee is entering another period of heavy investment and subsidy spending, a dynamic that has pressured Sea's margins in prior cycles. The emergence of new AI-driven competition, most visibly the Migoo app, and intensifying regional e-commerce rivalry, further tempered enthusiasm.
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SE Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to shape Sea's share price in the months ahead. First, third-quarter earnings will be a key checkpoint; consensus estimates call for revenue near $8.36 billion and earnings per share around $1.08. Investors will focus on whether Shopee maintains its full-year target of more than $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA and whether its gross merchandise value growth stays near the mid-20s pace management has guided toward.
Competitive intensity remains a central risk. The pace of Pinduoduo's Southeast Asian expansion, TikTok Shop's promotional activity, and Shopee's quick-commerce spending will be closely watched for their impact on margins. In financial services, the trajectory of Monee's loan book and its 90-day non-performing loan ratio, which held at 1.0%, will be scrutinized. On the gaming side, the launches of Palworld Online and Monster Hunter Outlanders offer potential diversification beyond Free Fire. Macroeconomic factors, including Southeast Asian currency movements against the U.S. dollar, could also influence reported growth.
Disclaimer
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SE in +1.85% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on September 22, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where SE advanced for three days, in 257 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 31 of 43 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
SE moved below its 50-day moving average on September 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Aroon Indicator for SE entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.693) is normal, around the industry mean (56.916). P/E Ratio (38.189) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.255). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.951) is also within normal values, averaging (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.379) is also within normal values, averaging (1.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of online gaming services
Industry InternetRetail