SMCI stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc provides high-performance server technology services to cloud computing, data centers, high-performance computing, and the Internet of Things embedded markets... Show more
Why Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Is Down -27% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) declined roughly 27% over the trailing 30 days, sliding from about $43.69 on October 2 to near $31.81 in early November.
- The pullback came despite a stronger-than-expected preliminary fiscal Q1 2027 update in late October that raised revenue and gross-margin guidance well above prior forecasts.
- A broad selloff across AI data-center and server-hardware names pressured the shares, as investors questioned how large-scale AI infrastructure buildouts will be financed.
- An ongoing export-control investigation, including guilty pleas tied to the alleged diversion of AI servers, has kept a legal overhang on the stock.
- Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with a consensus Hold rating and an average price target near $42, while some firms have flagged margin and governance concerns.
- Over the trailing quarter, SMCI is still up roughly 11% on a net basis, but the move was highly volatile, peaking near $45 in early October before giving back most of those gains.
- For more detail on this ticker's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast, explore the dedicated pages.
- Explore Trending AI Robots to see how AI-driven trading strategies are approaching opportunities across the market.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Company Overview and Market Position
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (Supermicro) designs and manufactures high-performance servers, storage systems, and IT infrastructure used in data centers, cloud computing, and enterprise environments. The company is best known for its AI-optimized, GPU-accelerated server platforms and its liquid-cooling and rack-scale solutions, which have made it a key supplier to the artificial-intelligence buildout. Because its hardware is closely tied to accelerated-computing demand, SMCI is frequently watched as a barometer for AI infrastructure spending, and its stock tends to move alongside other data-center and semiconductor names.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, SMCI fell about 27%, declining from a closing price near $43.69 on October 2 to roughly $31.81 in early November. The move was not a straight line: the stock spiked sharply in after-hours trading on October 20 after a positive preliminary earnings update, before resuming its downtrend as sector-wide selling pressure returned.
The quarterly picture tells a more nuanced story. From a level near $28.64 in early August, the stock climbed roughly 57% to an early-October peak around $44.94, then surrendered most of those gains. On a net basis, SMCI is up approximately 11% over the trailing quarter, but the journey reflected elevated volatility rather than a steady uptrend.
What Drove SMCI Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The dominant force behind the recent decline was a broad reassessment of AI data-center and server-hardware valuations. In October, concerns mounted over how the industry's massive AI capital-expenditure plans will be financed, and a pullback in chip and hardware names such as Nvidia (NVDA), Dell (DELL), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) dragged Supermicro lower. Barclays also downgraded several hardware peers to Hold, citing uncertainty around the timing of enterprise AI adoption, which cooled sentiment across the group.
Company-specific factors added pressure. The stock continues to trade under the shadow of an export-control case in which federal prosecutors charged individuals associated with Supermicro over the alleged diversion of billions of dollars in AI servers to China, with a contractor pleading guilty. The company's board is conducting an independent review. Supermicro also announced a CFO transition in mid-October, naming Mark Long, a former Western Digital executive, to replace David Weigand.
The one bright spot came on October 20, when Supermicro raised preliminary fiscal Q1 2027 revenue guidance to between $18.5 billion and $19.5 billion, up from a prior range of $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion, and lifted expected gross margin to 12.0%–12.5%. The stock jumped more than 10% after hours, but those gains faded as broader market pressure reasserted itself.
What Drove SMCI Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter was defined by a powerful rally followed by a sharp reversal. In August, Supermicro reported fiscal Q4 2026 revenue of about $11.12 billion, up 93% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.70 and a record order backlog, and management issued fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $65 billion to $72 billion. Strong AI-server demand pushed the shares toward their early-October high near $45.
From that peak, sentiment shifted. Financing concerns around AI buildouts, the export-control investigation, margin scrutiny, and a rotation out of crowded technology trades erased much of the rally. The result is a stock that remains higher for the quarter overall, but well below its recent highs and still down significantly from its 52-week peak.
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SMCI Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to shape SMCI's near-term direction. Supermicro's full fiscal Q1 2027 results, scheduled for early November, will be closely watched, particularly whether reported results and forward guidance confirm the preliminary revenue and margin figures. Gross-margin trends matter because large AI-server deals can compress profitability even as revenue expands rapidly.
Investors are also monitoring the export-control investigation and the outcome of the board's independent review, which could influence the risk profile of the shares. Beyond company-specific events, commentary from major cloud providers on AI capital spending, developments in AI-infrastructure financing, and the broader tone of the semiconductor and hardware complex are likely to remain key sentiment drivers. As always, these are factors to watch rather than guarantees of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
SMCI in -11.71% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on November 13, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where SMCI declined for three days, in 253 of 308 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SMCI as a result. In 70 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SMCI turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.
SMCI moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMCI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for SMCI entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SMCI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +9.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMCI advanced for three days, in 278 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
SMCI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.843) is normal, around the industry mean (-6.197). P/E Ratio (7.879) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.670). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.520) is also within normal values, averaging (23.994). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.658) is also within normal values, averaging (51.774).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SMCI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SMCI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of servers and other computer products
Industry ComputerProcessingHardware