SMCI stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Super Micro Computer Inc provides high-performance server technology services to cloud computing, data centers, high-performance computing, and the Internet of Things embedded markets... Show more
Why Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Is Up +44% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares rose roughly 44% over the 30 days through late August 2026, from about $25.70 to around $37.
- The rally was driven by a fiscal fourth-quarter earnings beat — non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 versus roughly $0.92 expected — and far stronger-than-expected fiscal 2027 guidance.
- A sharp recovery in non-GAAP gross margin to 17.6%, up from 10.1% the prior quarter, helped ease long-standing profitability concerns.
- Management disclosed more than $60 billion in new orders and a record backlog, reinforcing AI-driven demand visibility.
- The broader quarter was highly volatile, with shares peaking near $50 in early June, sliding toward $24 by mid-July, and then rebounding sharply.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Company Overview and Market Position
Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), headquartered in San Jose, California, is a global provider of high-performance server, storage, networking, and AI/IT infrastructure solutions. Founded in 1993, the company is best known for its modular "building block" architecture and direct liquid cooling technology, which allow it to deliver customized rack-scale systems quickly. Supermicro has evolved from a server assembler into what it describes as a total IT solutions provider, increasingly focused on its Data Center Building Block Solutions (DCBBS) platform — an end-to-end offering spanning GPU and CPU servers, storage, liquid cooling, networking, software, and services for AI data centers. Its close relationship with chip leader NVIDIA (NVDA) is central to its AI server business, and investors follow the stock closely as a barometer of AI infrastructure spending.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the trailing 30 days, SMCI climbed about 44%, rising from a close of $25.70 on July 29 to $37.08 on August 28. The advance accelerated after the company's August 11 earnings release, with shares jumping roughly 17% the following session on heavy volume before consolidating in the mid-to-high $30s.
The quarterly picture tells a more volatile story. The stock peaked at an intraday high above $51 in early June, closing at $50.17 on June 2, before a sharp selloff dragged it to a low near $23.83 by July 20 — a drawdown of more than 50% from the June peak. The subsequent rebound into the high $30s left the stock roughly flat versus its late-May close, but the path in between was unusually turbulent.
What Drove SMCI Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The primary catalyst was Supermicro's fiscal fourth-quarter results, reported on August 11, 2026. Revenue rose 93% year over year to $11.12 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share of $1.70 significantly exceeded consensus estimates. Most notably, non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 17.6%, up from 10.1% in the prior quarter, which management attributed to a favorable customer and product mix as well as lower tariff costs and inventory reserves.
Guidance provided a further boost. The company projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $65 billion to $72 billion, well above the roughly $53 billion consensus, and guided first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue to $14.5 billion–$15.5 billion. Combined with the disclosure of more than $60 billion in new orders and a record backlog, the report reinforced confidence that AI demand remains robust.
A late-August announcement that an independent investigation found no evidence current leadership was aware of alleged export-control violations also removed some governance uncertainty, even as the stock pulled back modestly on the news. Analyst reactions were mixed, with several firms raising price targets while maintaining cautious ratings.
What Drove SMCI Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarter's swings were shaped largely by legal and governance concerns. In March 2026, U.S. prosecutors indicted Supermicro co-founder Yih-Shyan "Wally" Liaw and others on charges of allegedly diverting billions of dollars of NVIDIA-based servers to China in violation of export controls; Supermicro itself was not named as a defendant. Additional charges followed in June, and in late June Taiwanese prosecutors raided the company's local office and detained two employees.
Shares also tumbled roughly 28% on June 10 after Supermicro announced a large equity offering to fund new orders, raising dilution concerns, with reports that a major hyperscale customer had canceled an order. The stock began to stabilize in July, when the company's July 21 preliminary results signaled a stronger-than-expected margin recovery, setting the stage for the August earnings surge.
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SMCI Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Looking ahead, investors will be focused on whether Supermicro can sustain its momentum. First-quarter fiscal 2027 results, expected in early November 2026, will be closely watched, particularly whether revenue lands within the $14.5 billion–$15.5 billion guidance range. Gross margin is a key variable, as management guided first-quarter margin toward the 10.4%–10.8% range, a notable step down from the fourth quarter's mix-aided 17.6%.
Other factors to monitor include the pace of backlog conversion, ongoing customer readiness delays tied to power, cooling, and networking infrastructure, the resolution of export-control investigations, and competitive pressure from rivals such as Dell (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE). Customer concentration and working-capital requirements tied to rapid expansion remain additional risks to watch.
Disclaimer
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SMCI sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SMCI moved above the 200-day moving average on August 31, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SMCI as a result. In 69 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
SMCI moved above its 50-day moving average on August 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMCI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +6.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMCI advanced for three days, in 272 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 191 of 241 cases where SMCI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 79%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SMCI moved out of overbought territory on August 17, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 88%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 58 cases where SMCI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SMCI turned negative on September 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 38 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 86%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMCI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
SMCI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 29 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.354) is normal, around the industry mean (7.817). P/E Ratio (11.270) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.792). SMCI's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.573). SMCI has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (0.656) is also within normal values, averaging (53.104).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SMCI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SMCI’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of servers and other computer products
Industry ComputerProcessingHardware