SMTC stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
Semtech Corp is a provider of high-performance semiconductors powering data center networking, Internet of Things ("IoT") connectivity, and cellular infrastructure solutions... Show more
Why Semtech (SMTC) Stock Is Down -24.5% in the Last 30 Days
Key Takeaways
- Semtech (SMTC) shares have fallen roughly 24.5% over the last 30 days, retreating from a 52-week high near $202 reached in early October.
- The decline followed a sharp multi-month rally, as profit-taking and valuation concerns emerged after the stock's steep run-up.
- A broad semiconductor selloff — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 11.4% in a single week — compounded the retreat.
- Even upbeat guidance announced at the company's October analyst day, including a raised fiscal Q3 2027 revenue and earnings outlook, did not reverse the slide.
- Semtech's valuation remains elevated, with a trailing price-to-earnings ratio well above its five-year median.
- For deeper analysis, explore Semtech's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
- Automated traders can review curated strategies on Trending AI Robots.
Semtech (SMTC) Company Overview and Market Position
Semtech Corporation is a semiconductor and connectivity solutions provider headquartered in Camarillo, California. The company designs and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductors along with a portfolio of Internet of Things (IoT) systems. Its business is organized around three primary areas: Signal Integrity, which supplies high-speed optical and copper interconnect products such as FiberEdge and CopperEdge used in data centers; Analog Mixed Signal & Wireless, built around its LoRa low-power wide-area networking technology; and IoT Systems & Connectivity, spanning cellular modules, routers, gateways, and cloud services.
Investors closely follow SMTC because of its growing exposure to the AI data-center buildout. Management has positioned the company as a supplier of connectivity silicon for 800G and 1.6T networking standards, a segment that has become its fastest-growing growth engine as hyperscalers expand AI infrastructure.
Semtech (SMTC) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, SMTC has declined approximately 24.5%, moving from a close of about $174 in late September to around $131.55. The decline was not a straight line: shares climbed to a closing peak near $197 in early October before reversing sharply through the middle and latter part of the month.
The quarterly picture tells a more volatile story. Three months earlier, the stock closed near $137, so shares are down roughly 4% over the full quarter. Within that window, however, SMTC first fell to a trough near $104 in late July, then more than recovered to an intraday high above $200 in early October, before giving back much of those gains in the recent selloff. The net result is a round-trip that left shares only modestly lower than where the quarter began.
What Drove SMTC Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The 30-day move reflects a sharp rally followed by an even sharper pullback. Into early October, momentum and AI-related optimism pushed SMTC to a 52-week high near $202. Several analysts raised price targets during this stretch, including BMO Capital to $230 and Oppenheimer to $225, both citing the company's data-center connectivity opportunity.
The reversal was driven by a combination of factors. Northland downgraded the stock to Market Perform on valuation grounds in early October, while a broad selloff hit the semiconductor sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 11.4% in one week. Valuation concerns also intensified: the stock traded at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 95.8x, well above its five-year median near 35.7x, with limited insider buying and substantial insider selling over the prior year.
Notably, positive company news did not halt the decline. At its October analyst day, Semtech raised its fiscal Q3 2027 revenue guidance to between $415 million and $420 million, above consensus, and lifted adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $1.12 to $1.16. Management also outlined a fiscal 2030 target of $3.2 billion in sales, with $2.1 billion expected from data centers. Even so, shares continued to fall amid sector-wide pressure and valuation re-rating.
What Drove SMTC Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader quarterly trend was defined by Semtech's AI data-center narrative. Strong fiscal Q2 2027 results, reported in late August, showed adjusted EPS of $0.71 versus a $0.61 consensus and revenue of $341.9 million, up 32.7% year over year. Data-center revenue reached a record, supported by continued 800G strength and the ramp of 1.6T products. This execution fueled a rally that carried the stock from its July lows to its early October peak.
The quarter's final stretch, however, was shaped by a rotation out of high-valuation semiconductor names and broader macro pressure on AI-related stocks. The pullback trimmed what had been a substantial gain, leaving the stock roughly flat to slightly lower over the full three-month period despite its mid-quarter surge.
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SMTC Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to shape Semtech's outlook. The upcoming fiscal Q3 2027 earnings report will test the company's raised guidance, with revenue now expected between $415 million and $420 million and adjusted EPS between $1.12 and $1.16. Investors will also watch the pace of the 1.6T product ramp and the eventual transition to 3.2T, which management expects to increase content per transceiver meaningfully.
Broader macro conditions remain relevant, including interest-rate movements, AI capital-expenditure trends among hyperscalers, and overall semiconductor-cycle dynamics. Valuation and analyst expectations will also matter, as the stock continues to trade at a premium to historical multiples. Competitive pressures in optical and copper connectivity, gross-margin trajectory, and any shifts in institutional or insider positioning are additional variables worth monitoring.
Disclaimer
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SMTC sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
SMTC saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 09, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 45 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SMTC as a result. In 73 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
SMTC moved below its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMTC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SMTC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +9.27% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMTC advanced for three days, in 250 of 304 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
SMTC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 215 of 258 cases where SMTC Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SMTC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SMTC's P/B Ratio (17.650) is slightly higher than the industry average of (6.538). P/E Ratio (86.360) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.955). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.213) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.532) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
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General Information
a manufacturer of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors
Industry Semiconductors