Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB), a manufacturer and marketer of branded nicotine products including moist snuff, loose-leaf chewing tobacco, and rapidly growing modern oral nicotine pouches under brands like FRE and Stoker's, saw its shares edge higher by 0.66% in the most recent completed trading session. The stock closed at $86.79, up from the prior close of $86.22. Markets attributed the modest uptick to ongoing positive sentiment around the company's pivot to high-growth nicotine pouches, even as investors assess near-term margin challenges from investments.
Although the stock experienced a sharp sell-off following its Q4 2025 earnings release earlier in March—where revenue surged 29% to $121 million driven by 266% growth in Modern Oral sales to $41.3 million—the recent session reflected some stabilization. Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $30 million, but elevated SG&A expenses up 38% due to marketing and salesforce expansion weighed on margins. Guidance for Modern Oral net revenue of $180-$190 million in 2026 underscored long-term potential, supporting the day's modest rebound as traders focused on growth prospects over short-term pressures.
Trading volume totaled 284,300 shares, about 76% of the three-month average of 375,000, indicating limited conviction in the move. The gain aligned with a slight uptick in the consumer staples sector, where the XLP ETF closed up 0.12%. TPB held above its short-term moving averages, with the stock trading in a $86-$88 range after recent volatility. Peers in tobacco and alternatives showed mixed performance, but broader market rotation into defensives provided tailwinds.
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Turning Point Brands faces Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $24-$27 million, testing execution amid Modern Oral investments. Next earnings are slated for early May 2026. Analysts project current-year EPS of $3.57, with 22.6% growth into 2027 amid nicotine pouch acceleration. Key watches include distribution gains, FDA regulatory updates on pouches, and sector dynamics versus peers like Philip Morris (PM). Risks encompass margin compression from spending, competitive pressures in oral nicotine, and macroeconomic sensitivity in consumer staples.
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TPB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 39 cases where TPB's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 24, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TPB as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TPB just turned positive on June 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where TPB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TPB moved above its 50-day moving average on June 24, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TPB advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for TPB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TPB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for TPB entered a downward trend on July 02, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TPB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.995) is normal, around the industry mean (19.433). P/E Ratio (25.839) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.746). TPB's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.048) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.933). TPB has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.004) as compared to the industry average of (0.045). P/S Ratio (2.987) is also within normal values, averaging (2.961).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a manufacturer of tobacco products
Industry Tobacco