TC Energy operates natural gas transmission assets across North America... Show more
TC Energy's Q4 2025 results cap a transformative year marked by the spinoff of its liquids pipelines business and a sharpened focus on natural gas infrastructure amid surging North American demand. Strong safety performance—the best in five years—drove 15 flow records, underscoring operational excellence. For investors, these earnings highlight resilient cash flows from regulated assets, project execution under budget (C$8.3 billion placed in service, 15% below estimates), and visibility into multi-year growth. In a landscape of rising LNG exports and power demand from data centers, TC Energy's pipeline network positions it to capture long-term energy transition opportunities while delivering predictable returns.
TC Energy posted Q4 2025 comparable EBITDA of C$3.0 billion, a 13% increase from C$2.6 billion in Q4 2024, fueled by higher deliveries across natural gas pipelines. Revenues climbed to C$4.17 billion from C$3.58 billion. Comparable earnings were C$1.0 billion or C$0.98 per common share, down slightly from C$1.05 due to higher depreciation and interest, but exceeding analyst forecasts (e.g., ~US$0.68 or C$0.92). Net income attributable to common shares stood at C$959 million or C$0.92 per share.
Segment performance shone: U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines segmented earnings up 21% to C$1.11 billion on 9.5% higher flows (29.6 Bcf/d average); Mexico up 76% to C$377 million; Canadian up 11%. Power and Energy Solutions dipped 51% to C$136 million on lower generation. Full-year comparable EBITDA rose 9% to C$11.0 billion. Guidance for 2026 signals higher comparable EBITDA and EPS, with net capex of C$5.5-C$6.0 billion focused on expansions.
Shares surged post-earnings, climbing 3.5-5.9% on February 13, 2026, with NYSE:TRP closing up ~3.5% at US$63.54 and after-hours gains pushing toward US$64. TSX:TRP rose over 5% amid all-time highs for peers. Investors cheered the EBITDA beat, record flows, dividend hike, and upbeat 2026 outlook, offsetting modest EPS dip. Sentiment turned bullish on sustained demand signals from LNG and data centers, with focus shifting to project backlogs.
TC Energy enters 2026 with momentum, guiding comparable EBITDA to C$11.6-C$11.8 billion and EPS above 2025's C$3.51, supported by secured projects and ~C$6 billion annual net capex through 2030. Key drivers include NGTL Multi-Year Growth Plan expansions (C$1.1 billion at FID), U.S. projects like Northwoods and TCO Connector, and Mexico's Southeast Gateway ramp-up. Operational highlights—such as recent records on NGTL (18.3 Bcf/d) and U.S. systems (39.9 Bcf/d)—signal robust utilization amid LNG exports (up 21% to 3.9 Bcf/d) and power growth.
Investors should watch open seasons like Crossroads (1.5 Bcf/d potential) closing mid-March, Bruce Power's Major Component Replacement (low-90s% availability targeted), and rate cases at Columbia Gas/ANR. Cost discipline remains evident, with 2025 projects 15% under budget; margin pressures in power from lower output need monitoring. Broader dynamics—data center load growth (e.g., 1.5 Bcf/d bids for Columbus), AI-driven electricity demand, and policy support for natural gas reliability—bolster the portfolio. Progress on allocating capex beyond 2026, regulatory approvals, and flow trends will shape execution amid volatile commodity exposure.
TRP saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on March 05, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TRP moved out of overbought territory on March 04, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TRP as a result. In of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TRP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TRP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TRP advanced for three days, in of 359 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 321 cases where TRP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating for company is (best 1 - 100 worst), which means the company is slightly undervalued. The valuation of the company is based on a proprietary formula which takes into account a set of fundamentals and gives us an estimate of the price per share for the company. We then compare this estimate with the current price per share. As a result, this company is rated as undervalued in the industry. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.570) is normal, around the industry mean (88.516). P/E Ratio (24.752) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.096). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.612) is also within normal values, averaging (4.084). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.062) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.862) is also within normal values, averaging (4.115).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TRP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 55, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of natural gas transportation services
Industry OilGasPipelines