VTV stock forecast, quote, news & analysis
The investment seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index that measures the investment return of large-capitalization value stocks... Show more
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Analysis: Value Rotation Gains Momentum
Key Takeaways
- VTV tracks the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, offering exposure to large-cap value stocks with heavy weighting in financials (22.1%), industrials (16.7%), and healthcare (14.3%).
- Low expense ratio of 0.03% and 312 holdings provide broad diversification and cost efficiency for long-term investors seeking value sector exposure.
- Top holdings include established names like JPM, BRK.B, and XOM, representing about 20% of assets.
- Passive full-replication strategy with quarterly rebalancing minimizes turnover (8.8%) and tracking error.
- Positioned for sector rotation amid shifting macro conditions, but sensitive to interest rate changes and economic slowdowns.
- Structural appeal in a market favoring undervalued large-caps over growth amid normalizing rates.
Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) Overview
The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index, which measures the investment return of large-capitalization value stocks within the top 85% of cumulative market capitalization of the CRSP US Total Market. This passively managed fund employs a full-replication approach, investing in all or substantially all index components in proportion to their weightings. Launched on January 26, 2004, VTV holds 312 stocks as of January 31, 2026, with a median market cap of $154.7 billion.
Top holdings include JPMorgan Chase & Co. (3.25%), Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B (BRK.B, 3.04%), Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM, 2.42%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, 2.22%), and Walmart Inc. (WMT, 2.12%). Sector allocations emphasize financials at 22.1%, industrials at 16.7%, healthcare at 14.3%, and energy at 7.2%. The expense ratio is a low 0.03%, with a turnover rate of 8.8% and a 30-day SEC yield of 1.95%. The index rebalances quarterly using market-cap free-float weighting, ensuring investability and style purity.
Industry and Thematic Landscape
The large-cap value segment targets established companies trading at discounts to intrinsic value, often characterized by higher book-to-price ratios, stable dividends, and mature business models. Key sectors like financials benefit from deregulation potential and steeper yield curves, while industrials draw from infrastructure spending and reshoring trends. Healthcare faces regulatory scrutiny but gains from aging demographics and innovation in therapeutics, and energy navigates volatile commodities amid rising power demand from AI data centers and electrification.
Macro catalysts include moderating inflation, Fed rate paths, and fiscal policies boosting defense and infrastructure. Capital flows favor value amid growth stock concentration risks, though headwinds like tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty loom. Structural drivers such as AI-driven energy needs and supply chain resilience support cyclical value sectors, balanced against recession risks and elevated deficits.
Performance and Positioning Snapshot
VTV has shown resilience in recent market cycles, outperforming peers in large-value category during periods of sector rotation from growth to value. Year-to-date through late February 2026, it posted gains around 8.5%, reflecting strength in financials and energy amid cooling inflation and rate cut expectations. Over the trailing year, returns approximated 19%, driven by broad participation beyond mega-caps.
This positioning aligns with macro shifts like normalizing rates benefiting banks and steady earnings from consumer defensive holdings. Recent trading sessions highlight VTV's lower beta (around 0.8), providing stability amid volatility from earnings seasons and commodity fluctuations. The fund's value tilt capitalizes on relative undervaluation versus growth, though it trails in high-momentum environments.
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2026 Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking to 2026, VTV remains anchored in structural value themes amid a complex macro environment. AI infrastructure buildout drives energy demand, potentially bolstering holdings in power and oil services, while financials eye deregulation and yield curve steepening from policy shifts. Healthcare's demographic tailwinds support steady growth, though drug pricing reforms pose risks. Industrials benefit from reshoring and capex cycles, but tariffs could pressure margins.
Key monitors include Fed policy trajectory, fiscal deficits impacting rates, and earnings cycles for top weights like JPM and XOM. Capital flows may sustain rotation if growth valuations compress, favoring VTV's low P/E (21.2x) and P/B (3.0x). Competitive landscape features peers like iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF, but VTV's rock-bottom expense ratio and liquidity stand out. Balanced risks from geopolitics and slowdowns underscore diversification value, with quarterly rebalancing ensuring alignment to evolving value factors. Expense efficiency continues to compound advantages for patient allocators.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
VTV's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for VTV turned positive on April 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where VTV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on VTV as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
VTV moved above its 50-day moving average on April 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where VTV advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for VTV moved out of overbought territory on April 10, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for VTV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where VTV declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
VTV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for VTV entered a downward trend on April 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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Category LargeValue