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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 26, 2019

Atlassian generates bullish signal with high confidence level

Application software company Atlassian (Nasdaq: TEAM) has some of the best fundamental indicators of all stocks right now. I am using Investor’s Business Daily’s EPS rating, SMR rating, and Composite Rating as a reference point and we will get to those fundamental ratings later. For now, I want to address the bullish signal generated by Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction tool.

The prediction tool generated the signal on March 22 and it carried a confidence level of 89%. Past predictions for Atlassian have been accurate 89% of the time. This particular signal calls for a gain of 4% over the next month.

The chart has been trending higher in an impressive fashion since its November low. An upwardly sloped trend channel has formed from that low and it has helped propel the stock by over 50% and at its high, it was up over 75% in four months.

I drew the trend channel a little different from the usual channel. Instead of just having an upper and lower rail, I also drew a mid-level rail. We see that the low from November and March form the lower rail and it was close in December. The high in early November and early December define the upper rail while the middle line is there more for a median. The middle line wasn’t calculated, but rather I drew it freehand.

I mentioned Atlassian’s fundamentals and IBD rankings in the beginning. The company scores a composite rating of 99, an EPS rating of 99, and an SMR rating of an A. All three of those ratings are the highest a company can get. The company has seen earnings grow by an average of 27% per year for the last three years and they grew by 92% last quarter.

Sales have grown by 39% annually and they grew by 39% in the most recent quarter. The company has a return on equity of 13.7% and a profit margin of 20.4%.

Related Ticker: WK

WK in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on January 24, 2025

WK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 38 cases where WK's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 52 cases where WK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where WK advanced for three days, in of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 22, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on WK as a result. In of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

WK moved below its 50-day moving average on January 29, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where WK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for WK entered a downward trend on January 29, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. WK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: WK's P/B Ratio (5000.000) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (31.561). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (159.426). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.763). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.179) is also within normal values, averaging (59.117).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks Inc (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 11.9B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 24%. NVNI experienced the highest price growth at 278%, while NXTT experienced the biggest fall at -55%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 8%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -13% and the average quarterly volume growth was 15%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 72
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 79
Profit Risk Rating: 87
Seasonality Score: 17 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: APPLICATION SOFTWARE
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