GET DAILY SIGNALSAgree Realty (ADC) Delivers Q3 Beat and Raises Full-Year Guidance
Key Takeaways
- Adjusted FFO (funds from operations) reached $1.15 per share, topping the consensus estimate of roughly $1.14.
- Revenue came in at $213.9 million, above expectations and up from $183.2 million in the year-ago quarter.
- Management raised full-year 2026 AFFO (adjusted funds from operations) guidance to a range of $4.58 to $4.59 per share.
- Net income rose 32.3% year over year to $66.5 million, or $0.53 per share.
- The portfolio remained 99.8% leased, with 65.1% of annualized base rent from investment-grade retail tenants.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Agree Realty Corporation (NYSE: ADC) is a net-lease real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns single-tenant retail properties leased to national and regional tenants. Its third quarter 2026 results, reported after the market closed on October 20, 2026, offer investors a read on the health of consumer-facing real estate and the durability of rent collection. Because the company distributes most of its cash flow as dividends, the focus is on FFO rather than net income. With nearly $1.3 billion invested across its three external growth platforms through the first nine months of the year, this report also signals how efficiently management is deploying capital while keeping its balance sheet funded and its dividend well covered. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, Agree Realty reported adjusted FFO of $1.15 per share, a small beat versus the consensus estimate of approximately $1.14 and an improvement from $1.10 per share in the prior-year period. Total revenue was $213.9 million, ahead of the roughly $211.1 million analysts had modeled and up from $183.2 million a year earlier.
Net income attributable to common stockholders climbed 32.3% to $66.5 million, or $0.53 per share, compared with $50.3 million, or $0.45 per share, in the third quarter of 2025. Core FFO grew 17.2% to $143.4 million, while AFFO rose 17.2% to $144.2 million, each translating to $1.15 per share.
The company also raised its full-year 2026 AFFO guidance to a range of $4.58 to $4.59 per share, up from the prior range of $4.57 to $4.59. At quarter end, the portfolio spanned 2,888 properties across all 50 states, was approximately 99.8% leased, and carried a weighted-average lease term of about 7.8 years. From what I see, these figures point to consistent operational strength.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
The modest FFO and revenue beats reinforced confidence in Agree Realty's ability to generate steady cash flow from its single-tenant retail portfolio, which remains heavily weighted toward investment-grade tenants. The raised AFFO guidance and an increased monthly dividend of $0.267 per share — up 4.3% from $0.256 a year earlier — further supported the view that the payout is well covered. Investors also focused on the company's liquidity position of roughly $2.0 billion and a pro forma net debt to recurring EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) ratio of 3.9 times, which underscores balance sheet flexibility heading into 2027.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Agree Realty enters the final stretch of 2026 with a fortified balance sheet and a visible acquisition pipeline. During the third quarter, the company completed a $400 million offering of 5.65% senior unsecured notes due 2036 at an all-in rate of 5.36% and settled 5.7 million shares under forward sale agreements for net proceeds of $425.7 million. These moves provide capital to fund continued external growth without straining leverage.
Investors should watch whether acquisition volume stays within the company's stated investment range and whether capitalization rates on new deals remain attractive relative to the cost of capital. Dispositions also matter: the company sold 11 properties in the quarter at a weighted-average capitalization rate of 6.5%, a modest source of capital recycling.
Leasing activity remains another key signal. With only 0.2% of annualized base rent set to mature in 2026 and a weighted-average lease term near eight years, near-term rollover risk is limited. Looking ahead, sustained occupancy above 99% and the share of rent generated by investment-grade tenants will be central to the dividend's durability and to the company's ability to deliver on its raised guidance. I'm watching this closely as it unfolds.
AI Tools in My Research Process
In my analysis of net-lease REITs, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter for similar names and compare fundamentals. It helps surface relevant data points on technical patterns and industry trends without manual effort. This kind of tool fits naturally into reviewing quarterly results like these and identifying comparable setups across the sector.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ADC in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 14, 2026
ADC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 19 of 36 cases where ADC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ADC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 11 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 39%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 28 of 57 cases where ADC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADC as a result. In 43 of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 49%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADC just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 41%.
Following a +2.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADC advanced for three days, in 152 of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for ADC moved below the 200-day moving average on September 25, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 37%.
The Aroon Indicator for ADC entered a downward trend on October 19, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 64, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ADC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 92 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.290) is normal, around the industry mean (2.662). P/E Ratio (35.387) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.750). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (10.790) is also within normal values, averaging (12.808). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (370.996) among similar stocks. ADC's P/S Ratio (10.277) is slightly higher than the industry average of (6.739).
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General Information
a Real Estate Investment Trust
Industry RealEstateInvestmentTrusts
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