GET DAILY SIGNALSAmerican Integrity Insurance Group (AII) Q3 2026 Earnings: What Hurricane Season Means for Results
Key Takeaways
- American Integrity Insurance Group (AII) is expected to report its third-quarter 2026 results on November 17, 2026, after the market close.
- Wall Street consensus points to a seasonal loss of roughly -$0.03 per share, compared with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.71 in the year-ago quarter.
- Revenue is forecast to come in near $105.7 million, reflecting continued premium growth for the Florida-focused homeowners insurer.
- The third quarter sits at the peak of Atlantic hurricane season, making catastrophe losses the single largest swing factor for results.
- Investors will focus on the combined ratio (claims and expenses as a percentage of premiums) and policies in force, which reached roughly 462,000 in the second quarter.
- For deeper context, explore AII's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts on dedicated pages.
- You can also explore Trending AI Robots for additional market perspectives and ideas.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
American Integrity Insurance Group is a Florida-focused property and casualty insurer that completed its initial public offering in May 2025. With its business concentrated in a hurricane-prone state, the third quarter represents its most seasonally sensitive reporting period. The results provide a clear view of how effectively the company manages catastrophe risk while expanding its premium base. In the second quarter of 2026, AII posted revenue growth of 55.6% year over year along with record income before taxes, highlighting solid underlying momentum. The upcoming report will show whether that growth can withstand seasonal weather losses, serving as an important checkpoint for assessing the sustainability of the recent performance.
Earnings Expectations
Analyst consensus indicates a modest seasonal loss for the third quarter of 2026, with EPS expected around -$0.03 according to estimates from TipRanks. This compares to adjusted EPS of $0.71 in the same period last year, underscoring the impact of hurricane exposure on third-quarter figures. Revenue is projected at about $105.7 million based on four analyst forecasts, up from $62.0 million in the third quarter of 2025. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Beyond the headline numbers, attention turns to the combined ratio, which tracks incurred losses and expenses relative to earned premiums. A figure below 100% signals underwriting profitability. In the second quarter of 2026, AII reported a combined ratio of 63.4%, improved from the prior year, with net premiums earned of $104.7 million and policies in force near 462,000. Maintaining disciplined underwriting through peak storm season remains the key focus. The stock has historically experienced notable post-earnings moves, including a 13.5% rise after the second-quarter report and a 13.9% decline after the first quarter.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment ahead of the third-quarter report appears measured yet positive overall. AII holds a consensus Buy rating from six analysts, with an average 12-month price target of $27.00 per data from Investing.com. The stock’s 52-week range of roughly $16.19 to $27.00 captures both the post-IPO advance and the volatility linked to quarterly catastrophe outcomes.
Weather remains the primary risk. A more active hurricane season or a major landfall event could elevate loss ratios and deepen a seasonally softer quarter. On the other hand, milder storm activity paired with ongoing premium growth and favorable reinsurance terms could lead to a positive surprise. Given the stock’s track record of double-digit moves around earnings, positioning for volatility in either direction makes sense.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Beyond the third-quarter results, several interconnected elements deserve attention. Catastrophe activity and reinsurance costs top the list. Management has guided for annual catastrophe reinsurance costs in the $430 million to $440 million range, with a first-event retention of $35 million. Actual storm losses relative to these levels will influence full-year profitability.
Premium growth and policy count also matter. AII has expanded quickly, exceeding $1 billion in in-force premium and roughly 462,000 policies in the second quarter. Sustaining this pace while preserving pricing discipline will help offset higher acquisition costs from new business.
Finally, investment income and capital position warrant watching. The company has allocated nearly $200 million to fixed income, with book yields in the mid-4% range and new money yields near 5%, offering earnings support. Shareholders’ equity stood at $369.5 million as of the second quarter, providing room for continued growth. These elements together will indicate whether AII can turn its recent scale advantages into sustained full-year earnings momentum.
Exploring Tickeron’s AI Tools
In preparing for earnings season, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter stocks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and volatility metrics. It surfaces relevant ideas more efficiently than manual checks and serves as a useful companion when evaluating names like AII alongside peers. The tool’s customizable filters help highlight breakout candidates and industry trends without unnecessary complexity.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AII's RSI Indicator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for AII moved out of overbought territory on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 13 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 10 of the 13 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AII as a result. In 15 of 26 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AII turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 12 of the 18 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AII declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 15 of 18 cases where AII's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +4.42% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AII advanced for three days, in 60 of 77 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
AII may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 55 of 70 cases where AII Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 79%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 35 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.429) is normal, around the industry mean (-2.070). P/E Ratio (6.371) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.942). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.303). AII's Dividend Yield (0.151) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.027). P/S Ratio (1.514) is also within normal values, averaging (1.594).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AII’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AII’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 50, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry PropertyCasualtyInsurance
Advertisement