GET DAILY SIGNALSAPi Group (APG) Reports Record Q3 with +22.5% Revenue Increase and Raised Guidance
Key Takeaways
- APi Group reported record third-quarter net revenues of $2.55 billion, up 22.5% year over year, with organic growth of 15.7%.
- Adjusted diluted EPS rose 22% to $0.50, beating analysts' consensus estimate of $0.47.
- Adjusted EBITDA climbed 24.6% to $350 million, with margin expansion of 20 basis points to 13.7%.
- Backlog exceeded $5 billion for the first time, providing greater visibility into 2027 demand.
- Management raised full-year 2026 guidance for net revenues and adjusted EBITDA, citing momentum across both business segments.
- Adjusted gross margin declined 120 basis points, pressured by project mix and higher material and fuel costs.
- For more context on APG's Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecasts, explore our dedicated APG pages.
- Discover how automated strategies are trading this market with Tickeron's Trending AI Robots.
Why These Results Matter
APG provides fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services, supported by a large base of recurring revenue that is often statutorily required. The third-quarter results offer an important check on whether the company can maintain double-digit organic growth while managing margins amid higher material, fuel, and labor costs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry. Investors continue to focus on the inspection, service, and monitoring business, which tends to deliver more stable revenue and profits. After four straight quarters of double-digit organic growth, this report helped clarify demand trends in areas such as data centers, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, and critical infrastructure, as well as the value created through acquisitions.
Reported Results
For the three months ended September 30, 2026, APG posted record net revenues of $2.55 billion, a 22.5% rise from $2.09 billion a year earlier, including 15.7% organic growth. GAAP net income increased 22.6% to $114 million, and diluted EPS moved to $0.24 from $0.20. Adjusted diluted EPS reached $0.50, up 22% from $0.41, which topped the consensus estimate of $0.47. Revenue also exceeded the roughly $2.40 billion analysts had projected.
Adjusted EBITDA grew 24.6% to $350 million, and the adjusted EBITDA margin widened 20 basis points to 13.7%. Adjusted gross margin fell 120 basis points to 30.3% due to project mix and higher material, fuel, and other costs. Safety Services revenue reached $1.66 billion, up 18.5% (8.8% organic), while Specialty Services revenue rose 30.7% to $893 million (29.9% organic). Management increased full-year 2026 guidance to net revenues of $9.20 billion to $9.25 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.235 billion to $1.255 billion, with adjusted free cash flow conversion near 110%.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
APG entered the quarter with solid momentum after posting double-digit organic growth in the first half of 2026 and raising its full-year outlook earlier. The latest results reinforced that momentum, with both revenue and adjusted EPS beating estimates and guidance lifted once again. Sentiment appeared centered on the faster growth in Specialty Services, the record backlog, and continued adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, even as adjusted gross margin faced pressure from mix and input-cost inflation. The backlog surpassing $5 billion and management’s continued focus on long-term “10/16/60+” targets added support, though rising material and fuel costs and certain regional data-center moratoriums were noted as items to watch.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
With a record backlog and raised guidance, APG heads into the end of 2026 in a strong position. The 2026 target for adjusted EBITDA margin and the longer-term aim of 16% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028 remain key benchmarks, and investors will monitor whether margin expansion can persist despite gross-margin headwinds from project mix and input costs.
Acquisitions remain a central theme. APG completed several notable deals in 2026, including CertaSite, Onyx-Fire, WTech, and Evergreen, adding more than $500 million in annualized revenue. Because 2026 includes only partial-year contributions from these transactions, their full impact in 2027 could provide an additional tailwind, along with integration, cross-selling, and procurement benefits.
Investors should continue tracking demand in data centers, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and healthcare, as well as any regulatory changes affecting data-center construction. Labor availability, wage inflation, and material and fuel costs will also influence margins. Management has not yet provided 2027 guidance but expects the international Safety business to return to mid-single-digit organic growth next year and stresses disciplined customer and project selection to support sustainable profitability.
Using Tickeron Tools in My Research
In my own work, I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to quickly gauge momentum and generate ideas around names like APG. The platform helps me compare technical setups across the sector without spending hours on manual charts, which keeps my process more efficient while I focus on the fundamental story.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
APG's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for APG turned positive on October 27, 2026. Looking at past instances where APG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on APG as a result. In 60 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
APG moved above its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for APG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +2.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where APG advanced for three days, in 253 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 250 of 350 cases where APG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for APG moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where APG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
APG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 6 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.081) is normal, around the industry mean (15.756). P/E Ratio (-67.770) is within average values for comparable stocks, (169.208). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (3.522). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.183) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.846) is also within normal values, averaging (2.960).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. APG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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