GET DAILY SIGNALSArcher-Daniels-Midland (ADM) Delivers Q3 Earnings Beat With +64% Operating Profit Jump
Key Takeaways
- Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.77 for the third quarter of 2026, comfortably ahead of the roughly $1.60 consensus estimate.
- Reported (GAAP) EPS reached $1.70, up sharply from $0.22 in the prior-year quarter, while net earnings attributable to ADM climbed to $821 million from $108 million a year earlier.
- Revenue rose 9.6% year over year to $22.335 billion but came in below analyst forecasts of roughly $23 billion, creating a mixed picture for investors.
- Total segment operating profit jumped 64% to $1.38 billion, driven by strong North American biofuel margins, robust ethanol economics, and a rebound in crushing profitability.
- Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $5.50–$5.80 from $5.15–$5.60, while trimming its capital expenditure outlook to $1.2–$1.3 billion.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
ADM sits at the center of the global agricultural supply chain, turning crops into food, feed, fuel, and industrial products. Its results serve as a useful barometer for crush margins, ethanol economics, and biofuel demand. The third quarter of 2026 followed a period when the company rebuilt earnings from a weak year-ago base that included impairment charges and softer processing spreads. With the Renewable Volume Obligation finalized in March 2026 and energy prices elevated, the focus was on whether favorable biofuel conditions would support lasting profitability. The quarter also tested ADM’s ability to maintain momentum across Ag Services & Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition while navigating softer spots such as liquid sweeteners and Biotics. I checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how ADM stacks up against peers in the sector.
Reported Results
For the third quarter of 2026, ADM posted revenue of $22.335 billion, up 9.6% from $20.372 billion a year earlier yet below consensus estimates near $23 billion. Adjusted EPS of $1.77 topped the roughly $1.60 consensus, while GAAP EPS of $1.70 compared with $0.22 in the prior-year period. Net earnings attributable to ADM reached $821 million, up from $108 million a year ago.
Segment results were broad-based. Ag Services & Oilseeds operating profit surged 105% to $778 million, led by crushing profit of $311 million versus just $13 million a year earlier. Carbohydrate Solutions operating profit rose 40% to $470 million on strong ethanol margins, while Nutrition operating profit increased 3% to $134 million. Management lifted its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $5.50 to $5.80 from $5.15 to $5.60 and lowered projected capital expenditures to $1.2–$1.3 billion from $1.3–$1.5 billion.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Despite the earnings beat and a third straight guidance increase, ADM shares fell more than 5% after the release. Investors appeared cautious about the durability of the results. The top-line miss drew particular notice because, for a company whose earnings hinge on processing and trading large commodity volumes, a revenue shortfall raised questions about whether the profit beat could hold up. Analysts pointed out that much of the upside came from crushing and refined products, areas tied closely to biofuel policy and energy prices that can shift quickly. The market seemed to discount the raised outlook because it implies a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS range below the third-quarter level, suggesting biofuel-driven margins may have peaked.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
ADM’s updated full-year guidance points to a fourth quarter that, while still strong versus 2025, steps down sequentially from the third quarter. Management has indicated that crush margins may have topped out but remains confident that conditions will stay constructive into 2027, with earnings expected to track near 2026 levels. One thing that stands out is the expected contribution from the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, now projected at roughly $350 million in net benefit for 2026, up from about $250 million earlier.
Investors should keep an eye on the path of North American biofuel margins, any policy shifts around RVO levels or biofuel incentives, the recovery in Ag Services profit after a 9% decline, progress toward the $500 million to $750 million cost-savings target, and working-capital trends that affected operating cash flow. In Nutrition, attention will turn to whether Human Nutrition can offset unplanned downtime and inflation pressures. The delayed rollout of Brazil’s biofuel policy also merits watching given its impact on South American crush margins. From what I see, these factors will shape how the story unfolds from here.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools in My Research
In my analysis of earnings-driven moves like this one, I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly surface comparable names and filter for technical patterns or fundamentals that align with the current environment. It helps me cross-check ideas efficiently before diving deeper into individual reports.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ADM in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ADM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADM as a result. In 55 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADM turned negative on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 63%.
ADM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for ADM entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for ADM's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADM advanced for three days, in 199 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 66 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.549) is normal, around the industry mean (2.288). P/E Ratio (20.702) is within average values for comparable stocks, (4.947). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.993) is also within normal values, averaging (2.441). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.038) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.502) is also within normal values, averaging (2.353).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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General Information
a provider of the processing of oilseeds, corn, wheat, cocoa, and other agricultural commodities
Industry AgriculturalCommoditiesMilling
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