GET DAILY SIGNALSArrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Stock Slides -14.5% in 30 Days After Earnings Miss
Key Takeaways
- ARWR shares declined roughly 14.5% over the trailing 30 days, falling from a closing price of $55.90 on October 16, 2026, to $47.78 on November 13, 2026.
- The pullback was driven primarily by a fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year earnings miss, alongside a "sell-the-news" reaction to otherwise positive clinical data.
- The longer-term trend is even weaker: shares are down approximately 45% from the mid-August 2026 level of roughly $86.
- Commercial momentum for REDEMPLO (plozasiran) is building, with new-to-brand prescriptions up 63% quarter over quarter, though product revenue remains modest.
- Arrowhead ended fiscal 2026 with about $1.19 billion in cash resources and refinanced its credit facility at a substantially lower interest rate.
- Wall Street consensus remains bullish overall, with a Strong Buy rating and an average price target around $108, according to recent analyst notes.
- For additional context, explore Arrowhead's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages for detailed data and projections.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, visit Trending AI Robots.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Company Overview and Market Position
ARWR is a commercial-stage biotechnology company that develops medicines by silencing disease-causing genes through RNA interference (RNAi). Its proprietary TRiM (Targeted RNAi Molecule) platform enables tissue-specific gene silencing across the liver, lung, muscle, adipose tissue, and central nervous system. The company's lead commercial asset is REDEMPLO (plozasiran), approved for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), with a supplemental New Drug Application filed for the much larger severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) market. Arrowhead also maintains a broad clinical pipeline spanning cardiometabolic, pulmonary, liver, and neuromuscular diseases, supported by partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies. Investors track the stock closely for its RNAi platform's breadth, its transition from a research organization into a commercial enterprise, and the execution of its REDEMPLO launch. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Stock Price Performance: Last 30 Days vs. Quarter
Over the last 30 days, ARWR fell from $55.90 at the close on October 16, 2026, to $47.78 on November 13, 2026, a decline of about 14.5%. The move was not a straight line: shares drifted lower through October before accelerating downward in early November, punctuated by a sharp single-session drop on November 9 that took the stock from roughly $58 to below $50.
The quarterly picture is considerably weaker. In mid-August 2026, ARWR traded around $86 per share. By the latest session, the stock had fallen to $47.78, representing a decline of roughly 45% over the period. This reflects a sustained multi-month downtrend that began with a sharp two-day selloff in mid-September and has continued through the autumn, leaving the shares well below their 52-week high of $95.49 reached in July 2026.
What Drove ARWR Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most significant catalyst was Arrowhead's fiscal 2026 year-end earnings report on November 12, 2026. The company posted an adjusted loss of $5.11 per share for the full year, far wider than the consensus estimate of a $3.51 loss, while revenue of $450.82 million came in below the roughly $464 million analysts expected and declined 46% from the prior year's $829.45 million. The fiscal fourth quarter was particularly weak, with revenue of $37.79 million missing consensus by a wide margin. Shares slipped further in after-hours trading following the release.
Sentiment was also pressured by profit-taking around clinical readouts. Positive data presentations at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions, including pooled SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 results and new ARO-DIMER-PA data, reinforced the science but triggered selling as traders who had positioned ahead of the events exited. Broader caution toward speculative, pre-profitability biotech names, ongoing cash burn, and reported institutional repositioning and insider selling added to the downside pressure. Despite this, analyst coverage has remained supportive, with firms such as H.C. Wainwright, UBS, and B. Riley reiterating Buy ratings in recent days.
What Drove ARWR Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The quarterly decline traces back to a mid-September "sell-the-news" event, when interim Phase 1/2a data for the dual-functional RNAi candidate ARO-DIMER-PA showed strong reductions in LDL cholesterol and triglycerides but failed to satisfy elevated pre-data expectations, sending shares down sharply over two sessions. That reset established a weaker trading range, and the stock continued to grind lower as investors weighed Arrowhead's heavy R&D and commercial spending against still-modest product revenue.
Over the same stretch, the company made meaningful strategic progress that has yet to lift the share price. It filed the sNDA for plozasiran in sHTG on November 2, gained entry into the FDA's Split Real-time Application Review (STAR) pilot program, refinanced its $400 million credit facility at SOFR plus 5.50% (down from 15%), and reported accelerating REDEMPLO launch metrics, including more than 1,250 cumulative prescriptions by early November and formulary coverage exceeding 160 million lives. The market's focus, however, has remained on near-term financial losses rather than these longer-term milestones.
ARWR Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Several factors are likely to shape ARWR in the months ahead. The most important near-term catalyst is regulatory: Arrowhead expects to receive its PDUFA date for the plozasiran sHTG supplement within roughly 50 days of its November 2 filing, with a potential U.S. launch targeted for the second quarter of 2027. Investors will also watch REDEMPLO launch metrics, particularly the conversion of prescriptions into paid shipments, which management has identified as a key friction point. Upcoming analyst conferences, continued data disclosures from the RNAi pipeline, and any update on the company's acquired Priority Review Voucher are additional items to monitor. On the risk side, heavy operating expenses, ongoing net losses, and sensitivity to sector-wide biotech sentiment remain important considerations. None of this constitutes financial advice, and outcomes remain subject to regulatory and clinical uncertainty. From what I see, the cash position and refinancing provide some buffer as these catalysts unfold.
Exploring AI-Powered Trading Strategies
In my own analysis of names like this, I often review Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to understand how automated models are positioning in real time. The Trending AI Robots section highlights top-performing strategies across thousands of tickers, with details on approach, timeframes, and performance. It serves as a useful complement to fundamental work when evaluating volatile biotech stocks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
ARWR's RSI Indicator remains in oversold zone for 4 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ARWR advanced for three days, in 222 of 275 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
ARWR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ARWR as a result. In 83 of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 89%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ARWR turned negative on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 34 of the 40 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
The 50-day moving average for ARWR moved below the 200-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ARWR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Aroon Indicator for ARWR entered a downward trend on November 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ARWR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (17.647) is normal, around the industry mean (3.498). P/E Ratio (-25.509) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-1.193). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (7.940) is also within normal values, averaging (9.059). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (130.658) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (13.812) is also within normal values, averaging (440.869).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ARWR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a developer of novel drugs to treat intractable diseases
Industry Biotechnology
Advertisement