GET DAILY SIGNALSAtlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) Q3 2026 Earnings: Analysts Project +52% EPS Growth
Key Takeaways
- Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) is set to report third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Tuesday, October 20, 2026.
- Analysts expect earnings of $0.96 per share, reflecting roughly 52% year-over-year profit growth.
- Consensus revenue sits near $392.7 million, implying a decline of about 22% from a year ago and roughly 5% sequentially.
- In the prior quarter, AUB beat estimates with EPS of $0.94 and revenue of $415.4 million, roughly 8% above forecasts.
- Net interest margin (NIM) improved to 3.94% in the second quarter, and management has guided full-year NIM to 3.90%–3.95%.
- Nine analysts covering the stock maintain a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of about $47.13.
Understanding the Context for This Earnings Report
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation, headquartered in Richmond, Virginia, is the holding company for Atlantic Union Bank and operates across Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, and Washington, D.C. This quarterly report arrives at a pivotal moment for regional banks, which are navigating higher deposit costs, moderating loan growth, and a shifting interest-rate environment. AUB enters the print on the back of two consecutive earnings beats, giving investors reason to focus on whether operational discipline can sustain profitability even as revenue faces headwinds. The results will also test how effectively the company's completed merger integration and expense controls are translating into the bottom line.
What Analysts Are Expecting
Wall Street expects Atlantic Union Bankshares (AUB) to report earnings of $0.96 per share on revenue of approximately $392.7 million for the third quarter of 2026. That EPS estimate implies robust growth of about 52% compared with the year-ago period, although revenue is projected to fall roughly 22% year over year and about 5% from the $415.4 million recorded in the second quarter.
Estimates have been notably stable ahead of the release, with the consensus EPS unchanged over the past week and the past two months. This stability suggests analysts have largely locked in their projections for the Richmond-based lender. In the second quarter, AUB delivered EPS of $0.94, beating the $0.92 consensus, while revenue of $415.4 million came in roughly 8% above expectations.
Key metrics to watch include net interest margin (NIM), the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits; net interest income (NII), the core driver of bank revenue; loan balances; and credit quality indicators such as net charge-offs and loan-loss provisions. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
How the Market Is Approaching This Report
Sentiment heading into the report is cautiously optimistic. AUB shares traded near $38.11 ahead of the release, close to the middle of their 52-week range of $30.87 to $43.62, and carried a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 10.3 times. The consensus rating is a Buy, with an average price target of roughly $47.13, implying meaningful upside relative to current levels.
The market's primary focus will be on whether NIM can hold up as deposit costs remain elevated. Peers such as Regions Financial recently reported a modest sequential NIM expansion, raising the bar for AUB to demonstrate similar resilience. Credit quality will also be in the spotlight, with investors watching loan-loss provisions and nonperforming asset levels for signs of stability or strain. Because earnings estimates have remained flat, the reaction may hinge more on guidance and commentary than on the headline numbers themselves.
What to Watch After the Report
Following the third-quarter release, investors should watch several factors closely. The trajectory of net interest margin remains central. Management has guided full-year NIM to a range of 3.90% to 3.95%, and any update to that outlook will signal how well the bank is managing deposit costs while benefiting from asset repricing.
Net interest income guidance is another key signal. The company previously narrowed its 2026 outlook to between $1.32 billion and $1.33 billion, along with loan balances projected at $29 billion to $30 billion. Commentary on loan growth, particularly in a softer demand environment, will help investors gauge the pace of the balance sheet expansion.
Operational efficiency is also worth monitoring. With expected profit growth running well ahead of an anticipated revenue decline, AUB's ability to control expenses and generate operating leverage will determine whether it can keep beating expectations. Finally, credit quality metrics — including net charge-offs and the Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio, a measure of a bank's financial strength — remain important watchpoints for assessing long-term stability.
Integrating AI Tools Into Earnings Analysis
In my research process, I find AI-driven platforms particularly helpful for quickly comparing earnings trends across regional banks. One tool I turn to regularly is Tickeron’s AI Screener, which allows me to filter stocks by industry, technical patterns, and fundamentals in a single scan. This helps surface comparable names and confirm whether AUB’s metrics stand out or align with peers ahead of the release.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
AUB's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for AUB entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 189 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 125 of the 189 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AUB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AUB's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 61 cases where AUB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AUB just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where AUB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Following a +2.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AUB advanced for three days, in 167 of 285 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
AUB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.056) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (11.111) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.150) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.039) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.638) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. AUB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a bank holding company which engages in the provision of financial services.
Industry RegionalBanks
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