GET DAILY SIGNALSBBVA (BBVA) vs ING (ING): Record Profits Meet Capital Returns in European Banking
Key Takeaways
- BBVA reported record nine-month 2026 net profit of roughly €9.07 billion (up 13.6% year over year), supported by strong loan growth and a 22% return on tangible equity (RoTE).
- ING posted third-quarter net profit of €1.85 billion (up 3.5%), slightly below consensus, but announced an up to €1.9 billion shareholder distribution and plans to cut around 400 jobs in its wholesale banking division.
- Both stocks fell after earnings, as higher loan-loss provisions weighed on BBVA and a pre-tax miss pressured ING.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: On balance, the AI currently leans toward BBVA for its stronger earnings growth, higher profitability, and diversified growth engine in Mexico.
- For more detail, explore BBVA Major News and BBVA Today's Price Move, as well as ING Major News and ING Today's Price Move.
European Banks Under the Microscope
European banks continue to draw investor attention amid shifting interest-rate dynamics, loan growth trends, and capital-return initiatives. BBVA and ING stand out as two of the most closely watched names in the sector, though they bring quite different profiles to the table. BBVA combines a European base with a substantial emerging-market presence in Mexico and Turkey, while ING operates as a digital-first lender focused mainly across Northern and Western Europe. This comparison looks at their recent results, positioning, and what could drive them next.
BBVA's Record Results and Market Reaction
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) ranks as Spain’s second-largest bank with operations spanning Spain, Mexico, Turkey, and South America. The group delivered a record nine-month net profit of approximately €9.07 billion, representing a 13.6% year-over-year increase, while net interest income climbed 20.8%. Return on tangible equity reached 22%, placing it among the stronger figures in European banking. Mexico continued to serve as the main growth driver, accounting for roughly 45% of group profit, and corporate lending showed solid momentum across markets.
Even so, BBVA shares moved lower after the release as loan-loss provisions increased 24% year over year and trading income in Spain softened. The common equity tier 1 ratio stood at 12.21%, above the 11.5%–12.0% target band. Capital returns stayed active with an interim dividend and a €2 billion share buyback program. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock stacks up against peers. Investor reaction reflects the tension between robust profitability and questions around asset quality and margin pressure in Spain.
ING's Steady Quarter and Shareholder Plans
ING Groep N.V. (ING) is the largest bank in the Netherlands and a major retail and wholesale lender across the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Poland, and other markets. The bank reported third-quarter net profit of €1.85 billion, up 3.5% year over year, helped by a 15% rise in net interest income and a 9.3% increase in fee and commission income. Pre-tax profit landed modestly below consensus, partly due to higher loan-loss provisions and rising operating costs.
ING outlined an up to €1.9 billion shareholder distribution that includes a €1.65 billion share buyback and a €250 million cash payment, while confirming its 2026 and 2027 income guidance. The CET1 ratio of 13.3% sits comfortably above its roughly 13% target. The bank also detailed a restructuring of its wholesale banking unit, which is expected to cut around 400 jobs and deliver roughly €75 million in annual savings starting in 2028. Shares eased after the report as investors balanced the softer quarter against the capital return news.
BBVA and ING: A Side-by-Side View
The clearest differences between the two banks lie in geographic exposure and growth characteristics. BBVA draws on faster-growing emerging markets, especially Mexico where loan growth has exceeded guidance, which supports a structurally higher growth and profitability profile along with greater exposure to currency swings and emerging-market risks. ING remains anchored in mature European economies with a strong retail deposit base and greater emphasis on fee income and digital channels, pointing to steadier but slower expansion.
On capital strength, ING holds the edge with a CET1 ratio of 13.3% versus BBVA’s 12.21%, and it paired its distribution program with a sizable buyback. On profitability, BBVA leads with its 22% RoTE compared with ING’s nine-month figure near 15.6%. Risk factors differ as well: BBVA contends with rising provisions and Spanish trading weakness, while ING faces cost pressures, a softer pre-tax result, and restructuring execution. Both stocks experienced near-term pressure, yet BBVA’s earnings momentum and emerging-market exposure contrast with ING’s more defensive, income-oriented profile.
Where the AI Verdict Lands
Considering trend consistency, earnings momentum, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI currently favors BBVA over the two. The view rests on BBVA’s stronger earnings growth, superior profitability, and the ongoing support from Mexican loan expansion, which together point to a more resilient underlying trend than ING’s steadier but more modest pace. The assessment remains probabilistic rather than certain: higher provisions and Spanish margin pressure continue to weigh on BBVA, while ING’s stronger capital position and distributions may suit more conservative investors. Conditions can change, so the relative edge between these names merits ongoing attention as fresh data arrives.
Using AI Tools for Bank Analysis
When evaluating names like these, I find Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots helpful for spotting systematic approaches that align with current market conditions. The platform offers hundreds of AI-driven strategies, each with its own style, timeframe, and performance track record, allowing users to match bots to prevailing trends and volatility levels without manually screening every option. From what I see, this can add a useful layer when comparing relative setups across banks.
Disclaimer
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BBVA in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BBVA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
BBVA moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BBVA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for BBVA entered a downward trend on October 29, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for BBVA's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
Following a +2.14% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BBVA advanced for three days, in 252 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
BBVA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 21, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. BBVA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BBVA's P/B Ratio (2.289) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.520). P/E Ratio (12.937) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.818). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.229) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). BBVA has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.062) as compared to the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (3.249) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
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