GET DAILY SIGNALSBoston Beer (SAM) Q3 2026: Volume Pressure Persists as Margins and Guidance Improve
Key Takeaways
- Third quarter 2026 net revenue declined 3.2% year over year to $520.1 million, roughly in line with Wall Street estimates.
- Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS, or profit per share) of $4.37 beat the consensus estimate of $4.22, while GAAP diluted EPS came in at $4.21.
- Depletions, a key industry measure of sales from distributors to retailers, fell 5%, and shipments declined 4.9%.
- Gross margin rose 90 basis points to 51.7%, helped by pricing, product mix, procurement savings, and brewery efficiencies.
- Management raised full-year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to a range of $9.00 to $10.50.
- The company ended the quarter with $308.1 million in cash and no debt.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
The Boston Beer Company’s quarterly results draw attention because the maker of Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, and Truly sits amid ongoing shifts in U.S. alcohol consumption. Its core beyond-beer and craft brands have dealt with volume declines for years as consumers move toward spirits-based ready-to-drink options and established labels mature. A supplier-dispute litigation has also affected GAAP results, so the non-GAAP figures offer a clearer view of operations. This report helps investors gauge whether pricing actions and cost controls can continue to counter softer demand, and whether newer offerings such as Sun Cruiser can help stabilize the portfolio. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Reported Results
For the 13-week fiscal third quarter ended September 26, 2026, Boston Beer reported net revenue of $520.1 million, down 3.2% from $537.5 million a year earlier. Reported revenue before excise taxes was $555.5 million. GAAP diluted EPS was $4.21, compared with $4.25 in the prior-year quarter, while net income fell to $43.2 million from $46.2 million.
Excluding the $2.2 million pre-tax supplier-dispute litigation expense, which reduced EPS by $0.16, non-GAAP diluted EPS reached $4.37 and topped the consensus estimate of $4.22 by $0.15. Revenue landed slightly below the consensus of roughly $523 million.
Demand remained the soft spot. Depletions decreased 5% and shipments declined 4.9% to about 1.8 million barrels, reflecting lower results for Twisted Tea, Truly, and Samuel Adams that were partly offset by gains in Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard. Offsetting the volume weakness, gross margin improved 90 basis points to 51.7%.
The company also updated full-year 2026 guidance, narrowing GAAP EPS to a loss of $(5.76) to $(4.26) and raising non-GAAP EPS to $9.00 to $10.50, up from the prior range of $8.50 to $10.50. Management expects depletions and shipments to finish the year down mid-single digits.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares traded lower right after the release, falling roughly 1.8% to about $192.50 in the immediate after-hours session after closing the regular session at $195.72. The measured response reflected a mixed report: the earnings beat and raised full-year profit outlook were offset by ongoing volume declines and revenue that came in slightly below consensus.
Sentiment heading into the print had been cautious, with four positive and seven negative EPS revisions over the prior 90 days. The stock has risen about 8.6% over the last three months but remains down roughly 11% over the past year, highlighting uncertainty about when demand will stabilize even as margins and profitability improve.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
The clearest signal from management is the expectation for modest shipment growth in the fourth quarter, supported by supply-chain improvements and the timing of distributor orders. Whether that develops will depend heavily on the path of depletions, which remain down about 5% year to date.
Investors should track two brand narratives closely. First, Sun Cruiser continues to expand at a solid pace and serves as an important offset to declines elsewhere. Second, Twisted Tea’s stabilization efforts, including promotions and price adjustments in markets where it had become overpriced, will be central to reversing the broader volume trend. New innovations such as Lit and Sinless are also expected to contribute in the back half of the year.
On the cost side, freight remains elevated and energy costs continue to influence aluminum input prices. Management has trimmed full-year advertising and promotional spending plans, redirecting dollars away from lower-performing media. The company also plans to provide full-year 2027 financial guidance during its fourth-quarter earnings call in February 2027, which will be an important catalyst. Finally, the outcome of the supplier-dispute litigation and any associated cash payments remain a factor to watch, even as the debt-free balance sheet and $308.1 million cash position provide financial flexibility. From what I see, this cash position gives the company room to navigate near-term challenges.
Using Tickeron’s AI Tools in My Research
I frequently rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing consumer staples names like this one. It lets me quickly filter for comparable companies by fundamentals, technical patterns, and AI-driven signals, helping surface relevant setups and track momentum shifts across the beverage sector without spending hours on manual screens. The tool has become a regular part of how I cross-check industry context before forming a fuller view on a stock.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SAM in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SAM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SAM as a result. In 63 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SAM just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where SAM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
SAM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAM advanced for three days, in 175 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SAM moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 22 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
SAM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SAM entered a downward trend on September 18, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SAM's P/B Ratio (2.619) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.240). SAM has a moderately low P/E Ratio (-27.217) as compared to the industry average of (0.553). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.775) is also within normal values, averaging (2.082). SAM has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.037). P/S Ratio (0.936) is also within normal values, averaging (1.539).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SAM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SAM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a producer of craft-brewed beer
Industry FoodMeatFishDairy
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