GET DAILY SIGNALSBridgewater Bancshares (BWB) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Margin Trends and Growth Signals
Key Takeaways
- Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results around October 22, 2026.
- Consensus estimates point to earnings per share (EPS) of roughly $0.47 and revenue near $43.1 million.
- Net interest margin (NIM), a key measure of lending profitability, reached 3.07% in the second quarter, and investors will watch whether expansion continues.
- Management has guided to high single-digit loan growth for 2026, supported by a loan pipeline near three-year highs.
- Asset quality has remained strong, with low net charge-offs and improving capital ratios.
Why This Report Matters
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc., the St. Louis Park, Minnesota-based financial holding company that operates through Bridgewater Bank, has posted several quarters of stronger profitability thanks to wider interest margins and consistent loan expansion. Its liability-sensitive balance sheet has gained from lower deposit costs while fixed-rate loans continue to reprice upward. The upcoming release will show whether the margin gains seen through the first half of 2026 can carry forward and whether loan and core deposit growth stay robust enough to support momentum in the competitive Twin Cities market. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Analysts Expect
Analysts anticipate Bridgewater Bancshares will post EPS of about $0.47 for the third quarter of 2026, with revenue consensus close to $43.1 million. Those numbers compare with the second quarter of 2026, when diluted EPS came in at $0.45 on $40.9 million in revenue, and with the year-earlier third quarter of 2025, when diluted EPS was $0.38 and net income totaled $11.6 million.
Investors will focus on net interest margin, which measures the spread between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits. NIM rose to 3.07% in the second quarter of 2026 from 2.63% a year earlier. Loan yields increased to 5.91%, while the cost of total deposits remained near 2.80%. Loan growth, core deposit trends, and the efficiency ratio will also draw attention. From what I see, these metrics will clarify whether the recent margin expansion can hold.
Market Sentiment Ahead of the Release
Sentiment before the report appears cautiously positive, reflecting steady margin improvement and solid credit metrics. Risks remain in view, however. The loan book carries significant commercial real estate exposure, which accounts for the majority of gross loans, and the bank relies noticeably on brokered deposits. In the second quarter the stock fell after results despite solid profitability, as investors focused on a modest revenue miss and a dip in core deposits amid competition. A similar reaction could occur if deposit pricing or funding costs fall short of expectations for further margin gains.
Key Factors to Monitor Going Forward
Looking ahead, the question is whether net interest margin can continue expanding past the 3.07% level recorded in the second quarter. Management has indicated that modest further expansion remains possible if rates stay stable, with roughly $644 million of fixed-rate loans maturing over the next twelve months at a weighted average yield of 5.73% that could reprice near 6% on new originations. I also reviewed recent signals with Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to gauge momentum.
Loan growth will be another important indicator. The company has kept guidance for high single-digit loan growth in 2026, with strength expected in its affordable housing vertical. Commentary on whether the pipeline stays near three-year highs and whether core deposit growth can keep pace with lending will matter, given that the loan-to-deposit ratio has remained around or above 100%.
Credit quality and capital levels also deserve attention. Net charge-offs and nonperforming assets have stayed low, while the Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio has risen to 9.61%. Shifts in these areas, along with expense control and the efficiency ratio, will influence the profitability outlook into 2027.
Using Tickeron’s AI Screener for My Research
I regularly turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings reports like this one. It lets me quickly filter peers by industry, technical patterns, and fundamentals, which helps put Bridgewater Bancshares (BWB) metrics into broader context without spending hours on manual screening. The tool has become a standard part of my routine for spotting comparable names and confirming trend signals ahead of releases.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
BWB's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for BWB entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 207 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 147 of the 207 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BWB as a result. In 56 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BWB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BWB's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 12 of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 46 of 66 cases where BWB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BWB just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where BWB's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BWB advanced for three days, in 210 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BWB’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.193) is normal, around the industry mean (1.237). P/E Ratio (10.899) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.400) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.683) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BWB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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