GET DAILY SIGNALSBrightstar Lottery (BRSL) Delivers EPS Beat on Mixed Q3 Results
Key Takeaways
- Brightstar Lottery reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.10 for the third quarter, beating the $0.08 consensus estimate by $0.02.
- Revenue reached $607 million, below analyst expectations of about $623 million, due in part to foreign exchange pressure and non-cash service revenue amortization linked to the Italy Lotto license.
- Adjusted EBITDA totaled $289 million for the quarter, while year-to-date adjusted EBITDA increased 5% to $861 million.
- Operational revenue growth picked up to roughly 4% in the third quarter from about 1% in the first half, helped by product sales that more than doubled.
- Management narrowed full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of $2.435–$2.455 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.14–$1.16 billion.
- The company maintained its focus on returning capital, with a dividend yield near 9% and more than $200 million returned to shareholders year to date through dividends and buybacks.
Understanding the Context Behind the Results
Brightstar Lottery PLC (BRSL), formerly International Game Technology, stands as a leading provider of lottery technology with nearly 90 customers across six continents. The third-quarter update provides the first detailed look at the streamlined lottery business following the July 2025 sale of its Gaming & Digital segment. In my view, this report helps clarify whether operational momentum can counterbalance foreign exchange effects and the non-cash amortization tied to the Italy Lotto license. With a substantial dividend yield and a strategy shifting toward Italy’s B2C opportunities, the release holds particular interest for income and growth investors alike.
Breaking Down the Reported Numbers
For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, BRSL posted EPS of $0.10, ahead of the $0.08 consensus. Revenue came in at $607 million versus the roughly $623 million expected. The shortfall stemmed mainly from unfavorable foreign exchange moves and non-cash amortization of service revenue connected to the Italy Lotto upfront license fee, not from any broad softening in the core operations. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Adjusted EBITDA reached $289 million for the quarter, and year-to-date adjusted EBITDA climbed 5% to $861 million. Product sales more than doubled to $60 million, supported by retail hardware, software, and instant-ticket printing. Income from continuing operations fell to $45 million from $95 million a year earlier, reflecting higher service revenue amortization and increased net interest expense after the final Lotto license payment.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of BRSL have faced ongoing pressure and remain well below the 52-week high. The mixed report—an EPS beat alongside a revenue miss and trimmed full-year outlook—has left sentiment somewhat balanced. While the revenue shortfall and guidance reduction drew attention, the pickup in operational growth and steady adjusted EBITDA margins offered reassurance that the underlying business holds up. The roughly 9% dividend yield reflects both the lower share price and management’s commitment to returning capital.
Forward Outlook and Areas to Watch
Management expects the operational growth acceleration observed in the third quarter to carry into the fourth, aided by product sales and Italy B2C initiatives. From what I see, investors will want to track whether these drivers maintain pace and eventually lift reported revenue once foreign exchange and amortization pressures ease.
The updated full-year 2026 guidance—revenue between $2.435 billion and $2.455 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $1.14 billion and $1.16 billion—incorporates softer same-store sales assumptions and the timing of Italy B2C efforts. Further revisions here would be worth monitoring closely. Balance-sheet metrics also remain in focus, with net debt near $3.8 billion, leverage at 3.3 times, and total liquidity around $1.9 billion. The September issuance of €500 million in senior secured notes helped extend the debt maturity profile.
Capital allocation continues to draw attention as well. Year-to-date returns to shareholders have topped $200 million via dividends and buybacks, and investors will watch how the company balances payouts with growth spending and leverage management.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When reviewing names like BRSL, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter across technical patterns, fundamentals, and industry peers. It helps surface comparable ideas and confirm broader sector trends without manual effort. I find it especially useful for cross-checking operational metrics against other lottery and gaming names before forming a final view.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for BRSL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BRSL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 100 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 68 of the 100 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BRSL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 32 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BRSL just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where BRSL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +4.48% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BRSL advanced for three days, in 174 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BRSL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
BRSL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BRSL entered a downward trend on October 28, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.138) is normal, around the industry mean (3.369). P/E Ratio (7.795) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.457). BRSL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.740) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.476). BRSL's Dividend Yield (0.093) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.012). P/S Ratio (0.806) is also within normal values, averaging (1.692).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average price growth. BRSL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BRSL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 99, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
a manufacturer of electronic gaming equipment, software and network systems
Industry CasinosGaming
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