GET DAILY SIGNALSCarlsmed (CARL) Q3 2026 Earnings: Watching for +46% Revenue Growth and Product Updates
Key Takeaways
- Carlsmed is scheduled to report its third quarter 2026 results after the market close on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
- Wall Street consensus points to quarterly revenue of roughly $19.2 million, which would mark about 46% year-over-year (YoY) growth.
- Analysts expect a net loss of approximately $0.39 per share, compared with a loss of $0.40 per share in the same quarter last year.
- Management has already raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $74 million to $78 million, implying more than 50% growth at the midpoint.
- Investors will watch gross margin, operating expense growth, and any updates on the company's aprevo lumbar and cervical product launches.
- For more context on this ticker, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast.
- Looking for data-driven trade ideas? Explore Trending AI Robots.
Why This Report Matters for Carlsmed
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) is a commercial-stage medical technology company developing AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions, anchored by its aprevo platform. The company has delivered rapid top-line expansion in recent quarters, with second quarter 2026 revenue rising 57% YoY to $18.9 million and gross margin expanding to 76.8%. This quarter's report matters because it will show whether that momentum is sustainable as the company ramps toward multiple product launches, including its aprevo bilateral lumbar system and CORA cervical plating system. For a growth-stage company still reporting net losses, investors will focus on the balance between accelerating revenue, improving unit economics, and the level of spending required to fund commercialization. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Analysts Are Expecting
For the third quarter ended September 30, 2026, consensus estimates suggest revenue of approximately $19.2 million, which would represent growth of around 46% from the $13.1 million reported in the third quarter of 2025. On the bottom line, analysts expect a net loss of about $0.39 per share, roughly in line with the $0.40 loss recorded a year earlier. These figures follow a second quarter in which Carlsmed reported revenue of $18.94 million and a net loss of $0.39 per share. Because the company reports on a standard December-ending fiscal year, this is its third fiscal quarter, not a non-standard period. Beyond the headline numbers, investors will track gross margin, which reached 76.8% in the prior quarter, and operating expenses, which climbed to $25.6 million as the company invested in sales, marketing, and research and development (R&D).
Market Sentiment Heading Into the Print
Heading into the report, sentiment around CARL reflects a tension between strong commercial execution and persistent profitability concerns. The company has consistently beaten consensus revenue and earnings-per-share estimates in recent quarters, yet the stock has remained volatile as investors weigh rising operating expenses and ongoing net losses against a promising growth story. A key sentiment driver is reimbursement: the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued a favorable rule creating new Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Group (MS-DRG) codes for aprevo lumbar procedures, though the benefit is not expected to materially affect revenue until 2027. Heading into this print, investors will be watching whether guidance commentary and margin trends can offset concerns about decelerating growth implied by the company's second-half outlook.
What to Watch After the Release
After the report, investors should focus on several factors that will shape Carlsmed's trajectory into 2027. First is the timing and commercial execution of the aprevo bilateral lumbar system and CORA cervical plating system, both expected to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026. Successful launches could broaden the company's addressable market beyond lumbar procedures, which still represented roughly 90% of second quarter revenue.
Second, keep an eye on gross margin, which management has said could approach 80% within 24 months. Continued margin expansion would signal that the company's capital-light, digital-first manufacturing model is scaling as intended.
Third, monitor operating expense growth and cash burn. Carlsmed ended the second quarter with $89.3 million in cash and investments, providing runway, but investors will want to see spending begin to leverage against revenue growth over time.
Finally, the evolving reimbursement landscape, particularly the new CMS MS-DRG codes, represents a potential longer-term catalyst that could support hospital adoption and procedure volumes starting in 2027. From what I see, these elements will determine how the story unfolds.
Exploring AI Tools for Earnings Research
I often turn to Tickeron’s AI-powered tools when preparing for reports like this one. The AI Screener helps me quickly filter for stocks with similar growth profiles and technical setups, while the AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals provide additional context on momentum. These resources have become a regular part of my process for staying on top of names like CARL without getting bogged down in manual data review.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CARL in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026
CARL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 27, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 11 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 10 of the 11 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 14 of 17 cases where CARL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CARL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for CARL entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CARL as a result. In 21 of 26 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CARL just turned positive on October 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where CARL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 8 of 11 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
CARL moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CARL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 4 of 9 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 44%.
Following a +6.12% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CARL advanced for three days, in 59 of 72 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 25 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.706) is normal, around the industry mean (4.477). P/E Ratio (-6.214) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.414). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.133). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.596) is also within normal values, averaging (6.065).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CARL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CARL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
Industry ServicestotheHealthIndustry
Advertisement