GET DAILY SIGNALSCarlyle (CG) Delivers +17% Growth in Distributable Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Carlyle reported third-quarter 2026 distributable earnings of $433 million, or $1.12 per share on a post-tax basis, up 17% from $0.96 per share a year earlier.
- Fee-related earnings (FRE) reached $293 million at a 47% margin, contributing to a record $950 million for the first nine months of 2026.
- Net realized performance revenues climbed roughly fivefold year over year to $100 million, driven by activity in private equity and the global energy platform.
- Total assets under management (AUM) stood at $479 billion, while pending fee-earning AUM rose 48% year over year to $28 billion.
- The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share, payable November 23, 2026, and reiterated strong momentum in capital returns.
- Management signaled expectations for at least $20 billion in fourth-quarter inflows, putting full-year 2026 fundraising on track for approximately $60 billion.
- For more context on CG, explore Major News, Today's Price Move, Price Targets, and Forecast on dedicated pages.
- Discover actionable ideas and market signals by exploring Trending AI Robots.
Why These Results Matter
Carlyle's third-quarter figures provide a useful snapshot of conditions across the alternative asset management sector. Realized performance revenues in particular show whether managers are successfully exiting portfolio holdings and returning capital to limited partners. For CG, this quarter stood out because realizations had been an area of investor focus earlier in 2026. The jump in realized performance revenue, paired with record fee-related earnings and a sharp increase in pending fee-earning AUM, points to better monetization and an improving pipeline. These numbers also matter for shareholders since distributable earnings support the dividend and broader capital-return efforts.
What the Numbers Showed
Carlyle posted third-quarter 2026 distributable earnings of $433 million, or $1.12 per share after tax, versus $368.4 million, or $0.96 per share, in the same period last year. The result topped consensus estimates that ranged from about $0.97 to $1.01 per share. Fee-related earnings came in at $293 million with a 47% margin, while net realized performance revenues reached $100 million, roughly five times the prior-year level. Net accrued performance revenues totaled $2.1 billion, or more than $6 per share in potential future earnings.
Total revenue rose 27.1% year over year to roughly $994.5 million, beating expectations near $930–946 million. Assets under management finished at $479 billion, with quarterly inflows of $10.8 billion led by credit. The firm declared a quarterly dividend of $0.35 per common share, payable November 23, 2026. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction
Even after beating earnings and revenue estimates, CG shares moved lower in the session, consistent with the cautious tone that has surrounded alternative asset managers for much of 2026. Some analysts had trimmed targets ahead of the release, and the broader group had given back ground year to date. Investors appeared more focused on the sustainability of realization activity, fee-related earnings growth, and fundraising pace than on the headline beat itself. The record pending fee-earning AUM and constructive fourth-quarter inflow guidance offered encouragement, yet market participants are still watching to see whether these trends produce steady distributable earnings growth in coming quarters.
What to Watch Going Forward
Several items stand out for the quarters ahead. Fundraising momentum remains key: management expects at least $20 billion in fourth-quarter inflows, which would bring full-year 2026 fundraising to around $60 billion, more than 10% above 2025 levels. The near-record pending fee-earning AUM of $28 billion should help support future management-fee growth once the capital is deployed.
Realization activity and the conversion of net accrued performance revenues will also draw attention. With $2.1 billion in net accrued performance revenues, or more than $6 per share, the speed at which Carlyle turns accrued carry into realized distributable earnings will influence near-term results. Broader market conditions, including the fundraising environment, credit demand, and exit valuations, will affect both deployment and monetization. Fee-related earnings are on track for their highest level in company history in 2026, but maintaining margin expansion while scaling new strategies will remain a focus.
Refining Analysis with Tickeron Tools
I often use Tickeron’s AI Screener when reviewing names like this. The tool lets me filter thousands of stocks and ETFs by technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, and AI-driven signals, helping surface ideas more efficiently than manual screening and supporting a more systematic approach to research.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Momentum Indicator for CG turns positive, indicating new upward trend
CG saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 76 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 56 of the 76 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 74%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
CG moved above its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 231 of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
CG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.906) is normal, around the industry mean (2.440). P/E Ratio (42.327) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.350). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.267) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
a provider of alternative asset management services
Industry InvestmentManagers
Advertisement