GET DAILY SIGNALSCarter Bankshares (CARE) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview: Core Results Take Center Stage
Key Takeaways
- Carter Bankshares (CARE) is expected to report third-quarter 2026 results around October 22, 2026, before the market opens, with a conference call scheduled for 8:00 AM ET.
- Consensus estimates point to earnings of roughly $0.53 per share and revenue of approximately $47 million, according to figures compiled by MarketBeat, TipRanks, and EarningsWhispers.
- The year-ago third quarter produced EPS of $0.26, making the projected result a substantial year-over-year improvement in headline earnings.
- Recent quarters were distorted by large one-time gains, including the sale of Bearing Insurance Group and a loan portfolio transaction, so investors will focus on "core" operating performance.
- Key metrics to watch include net interest income, net interest margin, loan growth, and credit quality trends across the regional lender's footprint.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Carter Bankshares, Inc. is a Martinsville, Virginia-based bank holding company and the parent of Carter Bank. The company has spent 2026 repositioning its balance sheet after a series of notable transactions, including the sale of its Bearing Insurance Group membership interest in May and the resolution of a large nonperforming credit relationship earlier in the year. Those moves generated roughly $100.9 million in aggregate nonrecurring gains during the first half of 2026, which inflated reported results. Because those gains will not repeat, the third quarter offers investors a cleaner read on the bank's underlying earnings power, its ability to grow loans, and whether its improving net interest margin can sustain profitability without one-off tailwinds.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts expect CARE to report third-quarter 2026 earnings of about $0.53 per share, with consensus revenue near $47 million. That compares with EPS of $0.26 in the third quarter of 2025, highlighting how much headline profitability has expanded even after adjusting for the company's unusual transactions. For context, second-quarter 2026 net income was $28.9 million, or $1.31 diluted EPS, but that figure included a $35.9 million pre-tax gain from the insurance sale; adjusted net income was $11.6 million. First-quarter 2026 net income of $85.8 million, or $3.88 per share, was similarly boosted by credit-loss recoveries tied to a loan sale.
Given this backdrop, the $0.53 consensus estimate is best understood as a return to more normalized, core operating earnings. Investors will also watch net interest income, which reached $40.0 million in the second quarter, up from $32.4 million a year earlier, along with net interest margin trends and loan growth. The company previously reported annualized loan growth of 6.1% net of its loan sale transaction, driven by commercial and small business lending. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into the third-quarter report is cautiously optimistic but focused on sustainability. The stock has had a volatile history around earnings: it rose about 2.98% following the July 2026 release, fell roughly 2.09% after the April 2026 report, and dropped about 6.34% after the October 2025 release. Because recent quarters were dominated by transaction-related gains, the key risk is that investors read through to core operating results and react to the quality of loan growth, margin expansion, and expense discipline rather than headline EPS. A cleaner quarter could reinforce confidence, while any sign of softening credit trends or slower loan demand could pressure shares.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Following the report, investors should monitor several factors that will shape Carter Bankshares' trajectory into 2027. Net interest margin will be central. Management has described the balance sheet as slightly liability sensitive, meaning the bank could benefit if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, particularly given the short-term nature of its certificates of deposit (CD) portfolio.
Loan growth is another important signal. The company has pointed to a healthy commercial and small business pipeline, along with construction lending commitments expected to fund over the next 12 to 18 months. Whether that pipeline converts into sustained, profitable loan balances will matter more than the nonrecurring gains that dominated the first half of 2026.
Credit quality should also remain in focus. The resolution of a large nonperforming credit relationship dramatically improved metrics, with nonperforming assets falling to $27.4 million at March 31, 2026, from $244.1 million at the end of 2025. Investors will want confirmation that underlying credit trends remain stable. Finally, the divestiture of the insurance business removes a revenue stream, so watching how core noninterest income and expense management evolve will help clarify the bank's normalized earnings run-rate.
AI Tools in My Research Process
I often rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener when preparing for earnings like this one. It lets me quickly filter regional banks by technical patterns, fundamentals, and momentum signals, giving me a clearer picture of how CARE stacks up against peers without spending hours on manual analysis.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
CARE in -1.85% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on October 19, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where CARE declined for three days, in 175 of 285 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 28 of 55 cases where CARE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Aroon Indicator for CARE entered a downward trend on October 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CARE as a result. In 48 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CARE just turned positive on October 02, 2026. Looking at past instances where CARE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 29 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +2.08% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CARE advanced for three days, in 212 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
CARE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 57, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 23 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CARE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.305) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (5.236) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.130) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.140) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a state commercial bank
Industry RegionalBanks
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