GET DAILY SIGNALSCboe Global Markets (CBOE) Climbs +31.9% Over 30 Days on Record Volumes and Analyst Upgrade
Key Takeaways
- CBOE shares climbed about 31.9% over the last 30 days, rising from roughly $258 to $340 as of the latest close.
- The advance followed a September pullback and was powered by record derivatives activity, a company-wide strategic realignment, and a late-October analyst upgrade to Top Pick.
- Morgan Stanley raised its CBOE price target to $450 from $358, citing SEC approval of the company's KPI prediction markets.
- Second-quarter results showed adjusted earnings of $3.56 per share, up 45% year over year, on record net revenue of $731.6 million.
- Over the trailing three months, the stock has gained roughly 19% after bottoming near $253 in late September.
- Upcoming catalysts include third-quarter earnings and further updates on prediction-market launches and options volume trends.
- For deeper analysis, explore CBOE's Price Targets, Earnings, and Forecast pages.
Understanding Cboe Global Markets’ Business and Position
CBOE operates one of the world’s largest derivatives and securities exchange networks, offering trading, clearing, and market-data solutions across options, equities, futures, and foreign exchange. It serves as the largest U.S. options exchange and holds the exclusive license to list options on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), while also administering the widely followed VIX volatility index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge.”
Revenue comes mainly from transaction and clearing fees, access and capacity fees, and market-data subscriptions. The diversified portfolio spans proprietary index options, multi-listed options, North American and European equities, global FX, futures, and the Data Vantage analytics business. Volumes and revenue remain highly sensitive to market volatility, retail trading engagement, and growth in short-dated options such as zero-days-to-expiry (0DTE) contracts.
Stock Performance Over the Last 30 Days and Quarter
Over the last 30 days, CBOE shares rose from a closing level of $258.03 on September 25, 2026, to $340.42 as of the most recent close, a gain of approximately 31.9%. The move picked up speed in October as the stock moved through $300 and advanced sharply in the final week.
The three-month view is also positive, though more volatile. From near $285 in late July, shares have risen roughly 19%. The path included a summer rally after strong second-quarter results, followed by a September pullback to a low near $253 before the October recovery. Overall, the uptrend reflects rising volume-driven momentum.
Key Drivers Behind the Recent 30-Day Rally
The rally stemmed from product momentum, regulatory progress, and positive analyst views. In late October, Morgan Stanley lifted its price target on CBOE to $450 from $358 while keeping an Overweight rating and naming the shares a Top Pick. The firm pointed to SEC approval for company-specific KPI prediction markets, which clears a major hurdle and could open a meaningful revenue stream not yet in consensus estimates.
Broader derivatives strength also helped. CBOE reported record options volumes through 2026, especially in S&P 500 index options and 0DTE contracts, with growing retail participation. Management noted higher simple-order counts as a sign of wider individual-investor involvement. Share-repurchase increases and a higher quarterly dividend further supported sentiment. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Quarterly Results and Strategic Moves
The quarterly trend reflects strong operating results and repositioning. Second-quarter earnings, reported at the end of July, showed adjusted earnings of $3.56 per share, up 45% year over year, on record net revenue of $731.6 million. Options revenue jumped 30% amid elevated volatility tied to geopolitical tensions and shifting views on the AI trade. Management raised its full-year organic revenue growth outlook to the mid-to-high-teens range.
Over the same stretch, CBOE advanced a strategic realignment announced earlier, including a planned reduction of roughly 20% of its workforce and the agreed sale of Cboe Canada and Cboe Australia. The focus is shifting toward core derivatives, data, and cash-and-spot businesses. These steps, paired with record volumes and expansion into event and prediction markets, supported the quarterly gain. From what I see, the cost discipline and divestitures appear well-timed.
What Investors Should Watch Next
Attention now turns to third-quarter earnings, where options volume trends, index-options revenue per contract, and Data Vantage growth will be key. Progress on KPI and event-based prediction markets after SEC approval remains central, given the potential revenue contribution. Macro volatility, geopolitical developments, and retail trading shifts will continue to influence volumes. Execution of the realignment, cost savings, divestitures, and any full-year guidance updates will also draw scrutiny. Competitive dynamics in exchange-traded derivatives and the regulatory environment for prediction markets stay relevant to the outlook.
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CBOE sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for CBOE moved above the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CBOE as a result. In 64 of 96 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CBOE just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where CBOE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
CBOE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CBOE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Following a +6.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CBOE advanced for three days, in 197 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 15 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CBOE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
CBOE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 23, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for CBOE entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. CBOE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.319) is normal, around the industry mean (4.071). P/E Ratio (26.451) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.255). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.241) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.018) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.615) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
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a provider of a marketplace for trading equity and index options
Industry FinancialPublishingServices
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