Charles Schwab (SCHW) Q3 2026 Earnings: Key Metrics and What Could Move the Stock
Key Takeaways
- Charles Schwab (SCHW) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Thursday, October 15, 2026.
- Analysts expect earnings of roughly $1.67 per share, up about 27% from $1.31 per share in the same period last year.
- Consensus revenue estimates sit near $7.2 billion, compared with approximately $6.13 billion reported a year ago.
- Schwab has topped Wall Street's earnings estimates in each of its past several quarters, including a beat in its most recent report.
- Investors are watching trading activity, net new assets, and net interest income as key drivers of the quarter.
Why This Report Matters
Charles Schwab sits at the intersection of retail trading trends and interest-rate shifts, making its quarterly results a useful window into broader investor behavior and the wealth-management sector. The company has shown accelerating revenue and profit growth lately, supported by higher trading volumes and improved net interest income. With shares near their 52-week high, this release should help clarify whether that momentum can continue and whether full-year guidance stays on track.
Analyst Expectations for the Quarter
For the period ending September 30, 2026, the consensus points to earnings of about $1.67 per share, compared with $1.31 per share a year earlier. Revenue is projected around $7.21 billion to $7.22 billion, versus roughly $6.13 billion in the prior-year quarter. These figures follow a solid streak of outperformance. In the most recent quarter, reported July 21, 2026, Schwab posted adjusted EPS of $1.62 against estimates near $1.54, with revenue of $7.1 billion also beating forecasts. The quarter before that showed a similar pattern. Beyond the top-line numbers, attention will center on net interest margin, core net new assets, daily average trades, and expense trends. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Recent Results and Market Context
Sentiment ahead of the print remains generally positive, though the stock has seen some volatility. Shares have advanced since the last earnings release, but recent sessions brought modest pullbacks as a few analysts trimmed targets. On October 2, Piper Sandler kept a Neutral rating while lowering its price target, while Morgan Stanley and UBS maintained Overweight ratings with higher targets. That mixed view highlights a familiar dynamic: strong operational trends versus a valuation that leaves limited margin for disappointment. An additional item on the agenda is Schwab’s October 1 announcement that it will dual-list on the Texas Stock Exchange.
Forward Signals Worth Monitoring
After the release, several areas deserve close attention. Trading volumes remain a focal point, given management’s comments on younger investors and digital enhancements supporting sustained engagement. Net interest income and the path of the net interest margin are equally important; the company has guided for full-year 2026 expansion into the 3.0%–3.1% range. Expense guidance and operating leverage will also matter, with projected revenue growth of 17.5%–18.5% against expense growth of 9.5%–10.5%. Finally, asset-gathering trends and any updates on the crypto pilot launched in mid-2026 could influence longer-term expectations. As usual, the forward guidance will likely shape the reaction as much as the reported results.
Using AI Tools to Track Earnings Season
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Screener helpful when preparing for reports like this one. It lets me quickly filter for stocks showing unusual momentum or technical setups ahead of catalysts, which adds context without replacing traditional fundamental work. The tool’s customizable scans on patterns, fundamentals, and AI signals have become a regular part of my routine when comparing names across the brokerage sector.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SCHW in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SCHW crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SCHW as a result. In 41 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
SCHW moved below its 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SCHW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for SCHW entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SCHW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 33 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 56 cases where SCHW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +2.15% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SCHW advanced for three days, in 190 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
SCHW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SCHW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.870) is normal, around the industry mean (4.351). P/E Ratio (17.905) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.023). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.832) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (16.763).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a provider of securities brokerage and other financial services
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